5 ms·

The stock price seems to indicate that we believe he's really going through with it. Amazing.

paxys 4y ago
The stock closed at $52 vs the $54.20 purchase price, so there's still some delta for the case where the deal doesn't close.
- locusofself 4y ago
  trading was halted at least once today. pretty interesting
- aeyes 4y ago
  This is normal because it will still take time for the deal to close and I'm sure you can find something more secure to get 4% now which is why you see this gap. It will close the closer we get to the closing date but this can still take quite some time and you might be better off putting your money in other investments.
  - qznc 4y ago
    4% within weeks? And more secure even? Tell me more!
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - aeyes 4y ago
      You don't know when the deal will close, it could be weeks but it could also be months. The risk is not knowing how long it will take. If you feel confident that the deal will close soon you can put your money in now and get a guaranteed 4% return. It's up to your own analysis of the risk/reward situation.
- rurp 4y ago
  It's not 100% of course, but when you account for the time-value of money the implied odds are extremely high. Honestly it's quite a bit higher than I would expect. Given that this is Elon Musk here, the odds of him trying some sleezy angle or just changing his mind again in a week or two are decently high. Not that those would necessarily stop the deal, but it would continue down the long drawn out and messy road it's on.
- encryptluks2 4y ago
  If it goes to let's say $60, wouldn't that open up the potential for lawsuits for people getting less than the value per share?
  - SilverBirch 4y ago
    It would be practically impossible to drive the price up to 60 dollars. The only way you can do that is credibly prove you're willing to buy the entirety of Twitter for more than $54.20 per share, because if you do anything less than successfully buy a controlling stake, and force the board to renege on the deal (which they legally might not be able to do, but Elon might be happy to allow to happen), then whatever share you bought would then be sold to Elon for $54.20 due to the already agreed legally binding contract.
    - encryptluks2 4y ago
      Okay, so the market price doesn't have a lot to do with the price per share?
      - SilverBirch 4y ago
        Well the point is that there is a binding contract that Elon Musk will take ownership of Twitter paying 54.20 per share. That's been agreed and approved by everyone. So you can come into the market today and pay $54.21 per share if you want - people will be willing to sell you their shares for that amount, since they know that there's already a binding contract for Musk to buy at $54.20. So if you buy at 54.21 you will take a loss of 1 cent per share when the deal closes. Theoretically everyone will be willing to sell to you for $54.21 since they know there's a legally binding contract that these shares are going to be sold for 54.20 soon. So you would have to buy up a ridiculous amount of shares to push the value beyond that.
incahoots 4y ago
Buy the rumor, sell the news. The graph has a gap now, curious how it fills it later in the week.

The stock closed at $52 vs the $54.20 purchase price, so there's still some delta for the case where the deal doesn't close.

locusofself 4y ago
trading was halted at least once today. pretty interesting
aeyes 4y ago
This is normal because it will still take time for the deal to close and I'm sure you can find something more secure to get 4% now which is why you see this gap. It will close the closer we get to the closing date but this can still take quite some time and you might be better off putting your money in other investments.
- qznc 4y ago
  4% within weeks? And more secure even? Tell me more!
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - aeyes 4y ago
    You don't know when the deal will close, it could be weeks but it could also be months. The risk is not knowing how long it will take. If you feel confident that the deal will close soon you can put your money in now and get a guaranteed 4% return. It's up to your own analysis of the risk/reward situation.
rurp 4y ago
It's not 100% of course, but when you account for the time-value of money the implied odds are extremely high. Honestly it's quite a bit higher than I would expect. Given that this is Elon Musk here, the odds of him trying some sleezy angle or just changing his mind again in a week or two are decently high. Not that those would necessarily stop the deal, but it would continue down the long drawn out and messy road it's on.
encryptluks2 4y ago
If it goes to let's say $60, wouldn't that open up the potential for lawsuits for people getting less than the value per share?
- SilverBirch 4y ago
  It would be practically impossible to drive the price up to 60 dollars. The only way you can do that is credibly prove you're willing to buy the entirety of Twitter for more than $54.20 per share, because if you do anything less than successfully buy a controlling stake, and force the board to renege on the deal (which they legally might not be able to do, but Elon might be happy to allow to happen), then whatever share you bought would then be sold to Elon for $54.20 due to the already agreed legally binding contract.
  - encryptluks2 4y ago
    Okay, so the market price doesn't have a lot to do with the price per share?
    - SilverBirch 4y ago
      Well the point is that there is a binding contract that Elon Musk will take ownership of Twitter paying 54.20 per share. That's been agreed and approved by everyone. So you can come into the market today and pay $54.21 per share if you want - people will be willing to sell you their shares for that amount, since they know that there's already a binding contract for Musk to buy at $54.20. So if you buy at 54.21 you will take a loss of 1 cent per share when the deal closes. Theoretically everyone will be willing to sell to you for $54.21 since they know there's a legally binding contract that these shares are going to be sold for 54.20 soon. So you would have to buy up a ridiculous amount of shares to push the value beyond that.

incahoots 4y ago

Buy the rumor, sell the news. The graph has a gap now, curious how it fills it later in the week.