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50 years from now there won't be gasoline. You must change. biodiesel will likely be available but not at scale. ethanol will almost certainly power old cars,

50 years from now there won't be gasoline. You must change. biodiesel will likely be available but not at scale. ethanol will almost certainly power old cars, but gas stations will be rare. hydrogen is a non-starter. 95% of hydrogen comes from fossil fuels already and electrolysis is tremendously inefficient. Not to mention a hydrogen car is really just an electric car with hydrogen range extending. Everything points to it's going to be EVs.

LinuxBender 4y ago
There are a lot of tractors that use diesel and gasoline. Mine is a 1947, still runs like a champ. I've wanted an EV tractor but with each generation of new vehicle, more and more hostile features are added. - Subscriptions to hardware capabilities - AUP violations for self repair this is slowly changing, maybe - GPS tracking and Remote telemetry. GPS makes sense for geofencing and automation but no need to dial home to a cloud, any more so than a drone - Crazy cost of proprietary batteries / battery packs All of those things are double-red-flags / hard stops for me. Batteries are a topic in and of themselves. Batteries are evolving every few years and yet newer vehicles are being designed to take proprietary battery packs and this is only becoming more vendor locked-in with time. I will buy an EV when the above items are addressed, probably around the time that solid state 3D printed batteries are forced to be in a Standard form factor and battery packs can be quickly swapped by the owner, whatever that may look like. Every part needs to be modular and easy to swap. Bonus would be after-market modules, some being vendor approved and some that obviously void warranties without having to reprogram the ECM like I do with my truck just to replace faulty ignition switches and ABS controllers. Oh right that is another thing. The EV will need to be compatible and writable by my ThinkTool scanner, meaning the EV vendors will need to publish all of their proprietary codes and encryption keys for vehicle diagnostic tools. If I can not enable/disable features from my tool then the vehicle is not mine and I get my money back. I also looked into getting a mid-sized EV excavator. Same as everything above. Nothing but owner-hostile features. In my obstinate view, the market is tone deaf and not appealing to the right people. Backing my view I have not seen any construction workers using EV rigs and vendors won't even list prices yet. I had to call them. The only change I have witnessed is smaller 2-stroke engines going electric like chainsaws, some yard maintenance equipment that used to be gasoline, etc... So perhaps gasoline will be gone in 50 years but I forsee many growing pains in this market and predict blackhat hackers will have to rescue some of the equipment owners, assuming the concept of owning hardware is still a thing. If the concept of ownership vanishes then I expect something better than they existing rental process. e.g. I press a button and the hardware shows up, I use it, then press a button and the hardware goes home and I only pay for the minutes used.
- incomingpain 4y ago
  >There are a lot of tractors that use diesel and gasoline. Mine is a 1947, still runs like a champ. I've wanted an EV tractor but with each generation of new vehicle, more and more hostile features are added. Build one then. How much hp/kw is in your tractor? Cant be much. DC motor + batteries + controller. Practically drop it in and all you might need to do is an engine mount. >Batteries are a topic in and of themselves. Batteries are evolving every few years and yet newer vehicles are being designed to take proprietary battery packs and this is only becoming more vendor locked-in with time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQzW0RT1YSg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQzW0RT1YSg Obviously he's being a bit ridiculous with his build but ev conversions are totally doable. If you have the know-how to keep a 47 tractor going you have plenty of know-how to do an ev conversion. In terms of batteries. Always your last purchase when doing the conversion. They are constantly cheaper. >I also looked into getting a mid-sized EV excavator. Same as everything above. Nothing but owner-hostile features. In my obstinate view, the market is tone deaf and not appealing to the right people. Backing my view I have not seen any construction workers using EV rigs and vendors won't even list prices yet. I had to call them. The only change I have witnessed is smaller 2-stroke engines going electric like chainsaws, some yard maintenance equipment that used to be gasoline, etc... This weekend I was talking to same idea. "My combine needs to be able to operate nonstop to get the corn/wheat/whatever off in time." So do you need a really large battery pack or do you mount 5kw of solar to the roof of the combine up high so it can rotate toward the sun? What's the cost of such a beast? >The only change I have witnessed is smaller 2-stroke engines going electric like chainsaws, some yard maintenance equipment that used to be gasoline, etc... Oh man, my very first one years ago was a weed wiper. The lack of shaking your hands to hell is a godsend. Now you also have robotic lawn mowers that just doo that all for you. Only possible as an ev. >So perhaps gasoline will be gone in 50 years but I forsee many growing pains in this market and predict blackhat hackers will have to rescue some of the equipment owners, assuming the concept of owning hardware is still a thing. If the concept of ownership vanishes then I expect something better than they existing rental process. e.g. I press a button and the hardware shows up, I use it, then press a button and the hardware goes home and I only pay for the minutes used. The beauty of capitalism. You could build your own first and potentially spawn a lucrative business for about a year or 2. Then Deere will come in with go-away money and you can go back to your original fun.

LinuxBender 4y ago

There are a lot of tractors that use diesel and gasoline. Mine is a 1947, still runs like a champ. I've wanted an EV tractor but with each generation of new vehicle, more and more hostile features are added. - Subscriptions to hardware capabilities - AUP violations for self repair this is slowly changing, maybe - GPS tracking and Remote telemetry. GPS makes sense for geofencing and automation but no need to dial home to a cloud, any more so than a drone - Crazy cost of proprietary batteries / battery packs All of those things are double-red-flags / hard stops for me. Batteries are a topic in and of themselves. Batteries are evolving every few years and yet newer vehicles are being designed to take proprietary battery packs and this is only becoming more vendor locked-in with time. I will buy an EV when the above items are addressed, probably around the time that solid state 3D printed batteries are forced to be in a Standard form factor and battery packs can be quickly swapped by the owner, whatever that may look like. Every part needs to be modular and easy to swap. Bonus would be after-market modules, some being vendor approved and some that obviously void warranties without having to reprogram the ECM like I do with my truck just to replace faulty ignition switches and ABS controllers. Oh right that is another thing. The EV will need to be compatible and writable by my ThinkTool scanner, meaning the EV vendors will need to publish all of their proprietary codes and encryption keys for vehicle diagnostic tools. If I can not enable/disable features from my tool then the vehicle is not mine and I get my money back. I also looked into getting a mid-sized EV excavator. Same as everything above. Nothing but owner-hostile features. In my obstinate view, the market is tone deaf and not appealing to the right people. Backing my view I have not seen any construction workers using EV rigs and vendors won't even list prices yet. I had to call them. The only change I have witnessed is smaller 2-stroke engines going electric like chainsaws, some yard maintenance equipment that used to be gasoline, etc... So perhaps gasoline will be gone in 50 years but I forsee many growing pains in this market and predict blackhat hackers will have to rescue some of the equipment owners, assuming the concept of owning hardware is still a thing. If the concept of ownership vanishes then I expect something better than they existing rental process. e.g. I press a button and the hardware shows up, I use it, then press a button and the hardware goes home and I only pay for the minutes used.

incomingpain 4y ago
>There are a lot of tractors that use diesel and gasoline. Mine is a 1947, still runs like a champ. I've wanted an EV tractor but with each generation of new vehicle, more and more hostile features are added. Build one then. How much hp/kw is in your tractor? Cant be much. DC motor + batteries + controller. Practically drop it in and all you might need to do is an engine mount. >Batteries are a topic in and of themselves. Batteries are evolving every few years and yet newer vehicles are being designed to take proprietary battery packs and this is only becoming more vendor locked-in with time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQzW0RT1YSg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQzW0RT1YSg Obviously he's being a bit ridiculous with his build but ev conversions are totally doable. If you have the know-how to keep a 47 tractor going you have plenty of know-how to do an ev conversion. In terms of batteries. Always your last purchase when doing the conversion. They are constantly cheaper. >I also looked into getting a mid-sized EV excavator. Same as everything above. Nothing but owner-hostile features. In my obstinate view, the market is tone deaf and not appealing to the right people. Backing my view I have not seen any construction workers using EV rigs and vendors won't even list prices yet. I had to call them. The only change I have witnessed is smaller 2-stroke engines going electric like chainsaws, some yard maintenance equipment that used to be gasoline, etc... This weekend I was talking to same idea. "My combine needs to be able to operate nonstop to get the corn/wheat/whatever off in time." So do you need a really large battery pack or do you mount 5kw of solar to the roof of the combine up high so it can rotate toward the sun? What's the cost of such a beast? >The only change I have witnessed is smaller 2-stroke engines going electric like chainsaws, some yard maintenance equipment that used to be gasoline, etc... Oh man, my very first one years ago was a weed wiper. The lack of shaking your hands to hell is a godsend. Now you also have robotic lawn mowers that just doo that all for you. Only possible as an ev. >So perhaps gasoline will be gone in 50 years but I forsee many growing pains in this market and predict blackhat hackers will have to rescue some of the equipment owners, assuming the concept of owning hardware is still a thing. If the concept of ownership vanishes then I expect something better than they existing rental process. e.g. I press a button and the hardware shows up, I use it, then press a button and the hardware goes home and I only pay for the minutes used. The beauty of capitalism. You could build your own first and potentially spawn a lucrative business for about a year or 2. Then Deere will come in with go-away money and you can go back to your original fun.