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Yes, because Tesla is working on a robot that costs can be bought. Lots of people say the Honda robot did this before. Now try buying one, you can't because th

Yes, because Tesla is working on a robot that costs can be bought. Lots of people say the Honda robot did this before. Now try buying one, you can't because they did not make more then the demo units. Others will point to the Boston Dynamics robots, great those are available to buy. Oops, forgot the price! Tesla is aimming for a 20K robot. However, even if it is 30K, 40K, even 50K it will still be way cheaper that the other machines people point at.

brtkdotse 4y ago
> Now try buying one, you can't because they did not make more then the demo units. I mean, yes, but try buying a Semi or a Cybertruck. My guess is the 20k robot will join that illustrous group.
- nikau 4y ago
  I'm sure you can buy one. Getting delivery is another thing of course.
robomartin 4y ago
> Tesla is aimming for a 20K Yeah, well, good number to use for marketing. Outside of that domain, this is an absolute fantasy. Think of it this way: A humanoid is easily one order of magnitude, if not two, more complex than a motorcycle. It's certainly at least two orders of magnitude more difficult and capital intensive to design. A new motorcycle sells for $15K to $20K. Using that as a ROM (rough order of magnitude), you'd expect a reasonably capable humanoid to go for more than $150K at a minimum. My guess is you are looking at $250K to $500K as the baseline range for a working humanoid for the next ten to twenty years. I can't see them becoming capable enough to achieve mass production scales for a decade or two. At that point you might be able to start approaching manufacturing scales in the thousands of units per month. When you can open the box, turn it it on, tell it to go clean the house, take the dog for a walk and cook dinner, well, at that point we are talking millions of units per year, tens of millions maybe. That's a long way out.

brtkdotse 4y ago

> Now try buying one, you can't because they did not make more then the demo units. I mean, yes, but try buying a Semi or a Cybertruck. My guess is the 20k robot will join that illustrous group.

nikau 4y ago
I'm sure you can buy one. Getting delivery is another thing of course.

robomartin 4y ago

> Tesla is aimming for a 20K Yeah, well, good number to use for marketing. Outside of that domain, this is an absolute fantasy. Think of it this way: A humanoid is easily one order of magnitude, if not two, more complex than a motorcycle. It's certainly at least two orders of magnitude more difficult and capital intensive to design. A new motorcycle sells for $15K to $20K. Using that as a ROM (rough order of magnitude), you'd expect a reasonably capable humanoid to go for more than $150K at a minimum. My guess is you are looking at $250K to $500K as the baseline range for a working humanoid for the next ten to twenty years. I can't see them becoming capable enough to achieve mass production scales for a decade or two. At that point you might be able to start approaching manufacturing scales in the thousands of units per month. When you can open the box, turn it it on, tell it to go clean the house, take the dog for a walk and cook dinner, well, at that point we are talking millions of units per year, tens of millions maybe. That's a long way out.