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> talk from one party about ending the filibuster Do you really think that if the GOP win the House, Senate, and Presidency, they won't scrap the filibuster to

> talk from one party about ending the filibuster Do you really think that if the GOP win the House, Senate, and Presidency, they won't scrap the filibuster to ban abortion nationwide in 2025? You're right that setting new precedents is a dangerous strategy, but showing restraint against an opponent that doesn't follow the unwritten rules (and even some of the written ones) is just asking to be taken advantage of, like a losing player in the Prisoner's Dilemma.

kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 4y ago
> Do you really think that if the GOP win the House, Senate, and Presidency, they won't scrap the filibuster to ban abortion nationwide in 2025? Yes. I'll bet you 10 fake internet points that there are zero attempts by the GOP to scrap the filibuster.
- dane-pgp 4y ago
  I'm reluctant to risk my fake internet points, but I think you are being over-confident if you imagine there will be "zero attempts". I assume that to count as an "attempt" you would require there to be an actual vote, rather than just an informal canvassing of senators to gauge the level of support, and I further assume that you would concede I was right if the filibuster was "only" scrapped for a single vote (not necessarily related to abortion). Anyway, to give more context, a bill to ban (some) abortions was introduced to the Senate[0] this year, and although Mitch McConnell has said he wouldn't scrap the filibuster for such a law if he had a majority[1], Biden has raised the stakes by saying he would support a carve-out to ensure the availability of abortions[2]. Senators are already discussing who should succeed McConnell[3], but his term ends in 2026, so perhaps I was hasty to suggest we'd see a change to the filibuster in 2025. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/sen-lindsey-graham-introduces-bill-to-ban-most-abortions-nationwide-after-15-weeks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/sen-lindsey-graham-introduce... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/mcconnell-vows-gop-won-t-jetison-filibuster-to-pass-abortion-law https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/mcconnell... [2] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/30/biden-supports-filibuster-carveout-abortion-rights-00043409 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/30/biden-supports-fili... [3] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/12/mcconnell-successor-three-johns-race-526920 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/12/mcconnell-successor...

kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 4y ago

> Do you really think that if the GOP win the House, Senate, and Presidency, they won't scrap the filibuster to ban abortion nationwide in 2025? Yes. I'll bet you 10 fake internet points that there are zero attempts by the GOP to scrap the filibuster.

dane-pgp 4y ago
I'm reluctant to risk my fake internet points, but I think you are being over-confident if you imagine there will be "zero attempts". I assume that to count as an "attempt" you would require there to be an actual vote, rather than just an informal canvassing of senators to gauge the level of support, and I further assume that you would concede I was right if the filibuster was "only" scrapped for a single vote (not necessarily related to abortion). Anyway, to give more context, a bill to ban (some) abortions was introduced to the Senate[0] this year, and although Mitch McConnell has said he wouldn't scrap the filibuster for such a law if he had a majority[1], Biden has raised the stakes by saying he would support a carve-out to ensure the availability of abortions[2]. Senators are already discussing who should succeed McConnell[3], but his term ends in 2026, so perhaps I was hasty to suggest we'd see a change to the filibuster in 2025. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/sen-lindsey-graham-introduces-bill-to-ban-most-abortions-nationwide-after-15-weeks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/sen-lindsey-graham-introduce... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/mcconnell-vows-gop-won-t-jetison-filibuster-to-pass-abortion-law https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/mcconnell... [2] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/30/biden-supports-filibuster-carveout-abortion-rights-00043409 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/30/biden-supports-fili... [3] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/12/mcconnell-successor-three-johns-race-526920 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/12/mcconnell-successor...