I don’t think that’s factually correct. As far as I am aware, most successful movements of this sort win when security forces are no longer willing to fire on

I don’t think that’s factually correct. As far as I am aware, most successful movements of this sort win when security forces are no longer willing to fire on them because the crowd includes some of their relatives and friends. It's easy to convince security forces to return fire, but more difficult to convince them to fire on unarmed civilians. The primary method for a regime to keep its security forces in line is to ensure their extended families are well-off (this is easier to do if you draw them from a single, government-privileged ethic group).