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I believe EV adoption will be slow and then sudden. Yes, there will hurdles and EVs aren’t going to make sense for everyone, but there will be a tipping point.

I believe EV adoption will be slow and then sudden. Yes, there will hurdles and EVs aren’t going to make sense for everyone, but there will be a tipping point. Right now you have EVs that check all the boxes and but are over $45,000. Even with premium pricing, demand already outstrips supply for electric vehicles.

coffeefirst 4y ago
This is also how it went with smartphones. First it’s a status symbol and a luxury item, then a few years later there seems to be a cliff and suddenly it’s highly unusual not to have one.
- rtlfe 4y ago
  You can get a brand new perfectly functional smartphone for under $200. If electric cars drop to even $30k they're still way out of reach for most people, and we'll be waiting a long time from them to hit the used car market.
  - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
    https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-report https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle... says 1/4th of EV sales in Q2 2022 were used vehicles. with an average price of 40k although this is all complicated by a shortage in EV production.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - Ekaros 4y ago
      40k... That is triple what I paid for my slightly used ICE car. With long warranty in country with extreme taxation... That is just bonkers level of pricing.
      - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
        Yeah, the market is in a very weird place largely caused by the fact that there was a roughly 5 year period where the Model S was the only real electric car, so used EVs are much more likely to be extremely high end cars than new EVs (also the current car market in general is very wacky right now). It will probably be another 5 years or so before there are enough cheap EVs that have been on the road long enough to enter the used market in high volume.
threeseed 4y ago
The issue isn't supply/demand it's the availability of resources e.g. lithium. And those won't just just magically jump from none to plentiful. It will be more gradual.
- hedora 4y ago
  Lithium is plentiful. Refineries and mines might be scarce, but that (and dozens of other supply chain issues) will be fixed, and all of a sudden EV supply will skyrocket.
funstuff007 4y ago
> Even with premium pricing, demand already outstrips supply for electric vehicles. Thanks to pandemic stimulus, this is true for almost all vehicle types.
- pornel 4y ago
  How do you people buy these $40,000 cars with your one-time $1400 check?
  - funstuff007 4y ago
    The Fed printed $4.5 trillion during the pandemic. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...
faeriechangling 4y ago
Really because I came to the exact opposite conclusion that the tipping point will be they getting more expensive because of the input costs, namely the raw materials. How do you figure natural resource extraction will be revolutionised to make EV's dramatically cheaper after enough people buy EVs?
- dangrossman 4y ago
  After enough people buy EVs, you don't need to extract new resources, as they can be recycled. Redwood Materials recycled 60 tons of EV batteries a day last year, with an over 90% recovery rate of the materials.
  - faeriechangling 4y ago
    Wow fascinating company I haven't heard of before. That definitely helps a ton if the recovery rate is good enough.
hedora 4y ago
> but are over 45K The Kia EV6 is $41K and has > 300 mile range. Leafs start at $28K ($20K after subsidy), but that is a lower range model. I agree with the point you are making, but I think we are in the middle of the tipping point. Plenty of models exist at many price points. 100% are back ordered. All the manufacturers have to do at this point is scale their production lines. Nissan and Kia are probably going to eat a few lunches in the mass market segment.
- etempleton 4y ago
  Yes, Kia with their models are the closest. They are right there in terms of pricing. The Nissan Leaf is well priced, but it is a bit basic and not what most people are looking for these days in terms of features. And I agree, a tipping point feels close. If Tesla ever caught up with demand and stopped raising their prices on the Model 3 I think it would be a Model T like hit.
onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
We have now several examples of markets (California, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Netherlands) that electric vehicle sales follow an S curve like you're predicting. In a couple of years, I think China & India should make it clear if this will be the global play out as well. China certainly seems interested in getting off gasoline as fast as possible.
- _chu1 4y ago
  That's because China looks like and practically is City 17 right now
torginus 4y ago
The article points out there's just not enough raw lithium and nickel to go around to convert every gas car to an EV. If everyone would suddenly want an EV, that would drive raw material prices even higher and would lead to a drastic expansion of lithium mining, without the necessary environmental precautions, which would counteract the environmental benefits of EV adoption.

coffeefirst 4y ago

This is also how it went with smartphones. First it’s a status symbol and a luxury item, then a few years later there seems to be a cliff and suddenly it’s highly unusual not to have one.

rtlfe 4y ago
You can get a brand new perfectly functional smartphone for under $200. If electric cars drop to even $30k they're still way out of reach for most people, and we'll be waiting a long time from them to hit the used car market.
- adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
  https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-report https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle... says 1/4th of EV sales in Q2 2022 were used vehicles. with an average price of 40k although this is all complicated by a shortage in EV production.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    40k... That is triple what I paid for my slightly used ICE car. With long warranty in country with extreme taxation... That is just bonkers level of pricing.
    - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
      Yeah, the market is in a very weird place largely caused by the fact that there was a roughly 5 year period where the Model S was the only real electric car, so used EVs are much more likely to be extremely high end cars than new EVs (also the current car market in general is very wacky right now). It will probably be another 5 years or so before there are enough cheap EVs that have been on the road long enough to enter the used market in high volume.

threeseed 4y ago

The issue isn't supply/demand it's the availability of resources e.g. lithium. And those won't just just magically jump from none to plentiful. It will be more gradual.

hedora 4y ago
Lithium is plentiful. Refineries and mines might be scarce, but that (and dozens of other supply chain issues) will be fixed, and all of a sudden EV supply will skyrocket.

funstuff007 4y ago

> Even with premium pricing, demand already outstrips supply for electric vehicles. Thanks to pandemic stimulus, this is true for almost all vehicle types.

pornel 4y ago
How do you people buy these $40,000 cars with your one-time $1400 check?
- funstuff007 4y ago
  The Fed printed $4.5 trillion during the pandemic. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

faeriechangling 4y ago

Really because I came to the exact opposite conclusion that the tipping point will be they getting more expensive because of the input costs, namely the raw materials. How do you figure natural resource extraction will be revolutionised to make EV's dramatically cheaper after enough people buy EVs?

dangrossman 4y ago
After enough people buy EVs, you don't need to extract new resources, as they can be recycled. Redwood Materials recycled 60 tons of EV batteries a day last year, with an over 90% recovery rate of the materials.
- faeriechangling 4y ago
  Wow fascinating company I haven't heard of before. That definitely helps a ton if the recovery rate is good enough.

hedora 4y ago

> but are over 45K The Kia EV6 is $41K and has > 300 mile range. Leafs start at $28K ($20K after subsidy), but that is a lower range model. I agree with the point you are making, but I think we are in the middle of the tipping point. Plenty of models exist at many price points. 100% are back ordered. All the manufacturers have to do at this point is scale their production lines. Nissan and Kia are probably going to eat a few lunches in the mass market segment.

etempleton 4y ago
Yes, Kia with their models are the closest. They are right there in terms of pricing. The Nissan Leaf is well priced, but it is a bit basic and not what most people are looking for these days in terms of features. And I agree, a tipping point feels close. If Tesla ever caught up with demand and stopped raising their prices on the Model 3 I think it would be a Model T like hit.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

We have now several examples of markets (California, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Netherlands) that electric vehicle sales follow an S curve like you're predicting. In a couple of years, I think China & India should make it clear if this will be the global play out as well. China certainly seems interested in getting off gasoline as fast as possible.

_chu1 4y ago
That's because China looks like and practically is City 17 right now

torginus 4y ago

The article points out there's just not enough raw lithium and nickel to go around to convert every gas car to an EV. If everyone would suddenly want an EV, that would drive raw material prices even higher and would lead to a drastic expansion of lithium mining, without the necessary environmental precautions, which would counteract the environmental benefits of EV adoption.