I think one of the best arguments that she didn't cheat is that it requires a lot more. Option 1: She didn't cheat and made an incredibly bad play because she

I think one of the best arguments that she didn't cheat is that it requires a lot more. Option 1: She didn't cheat and made an incredibly bad play because she's very stupid. Option 2: She did cheat and she made an incredibly bad play because she's basically showing off that she's cheating, which makes her very stupid. So option 1 requires that she's really stupid, and option 2 requires that she's really stupid AND she cheated, making option 1 more likely. That being said, it ignores a lot of the poker nuance. That's going to be lost on the discussion here, unfortunately, in spite of your comment. I've long found you can't have any serious poker discussion here.