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>How is cheating in this case logical? She had the losing hand at the time she called by a few percentage points. It’s +EV because of the money already in the

>How is cheating in this case logical? She had the losing hand at the time she called by a few percentage points. It’s +EV because of the money already in the pot. Not by a lot though, and she played badly in other spots previously.

Guvante 4y ago
If she pegged him as going for a straight her odds probably weren't bad making the move a decent +EV. And it would also match her banter of "you probably got me".
- __blockcipher__ 4y ago
  She specifically said she put him on ace high at one point, at which point Garrett retorts that (paraphrased, despite the quotes) "if she thought he had ace high why would she call with jack high?"
  - Guvante 4y ago
    There needs to be more evidence of cheating then "no one calls with Jack crap" (they totally do), "she had the better had" (she did not unless she knew the deck which requires way more evidence than presented), "the pot odds were good" (which any player would know was true if their opponent didn't pair up or have a better high card), or "flustered player who just won $130k on a bad call is flustered".
mod 4y ago
She's also not losing the hand at the time she called, percentage wise, unless you factor in the cards folded by the other players. We don't know if she had that information.
- Guvante 4y ago
  Nothing you said makes sense in the context of cheating in this game. How could she know only his cards? Or how could she know the rivers without knowing anyone else's cards? It was effectively a coin flip given how many outs he had and the fact that her hand was better at the turn. Saying she needed to cheat to win a coin flip is just weird. Also the fact that it is a coin flip is well known in the poker community. If you haven't heard people bitching about losing to JX you haven't played enough.
  - mod 4y ago
    Her call is good even if she knows his hand. Amazingly good, since almost no players have ever called with jack high, no draw. Ever. I think if she cheated (I don't have any strong opinions on whether she did), that her signal was binary. It makes the most sense given her actions, and inability to explain them. Buzzer that buzzes when "you have the best hand right now" makes a lot of sense and is easy for a bad player to understand. It's a coin flip, but she's 55% favorite unless she knows the discarded/dead cards. If she knows them, she has 47% equity which makes her call very profitable given the pot size of 40k. This is basic "pot odds" or EV calculation, I encourage you to do it. If she didn't know his exact hand, her play is unspeakably bad. She has virtually zero equity against Garrett's range here. He's holding one of the two or three hands she can beat given his line. Most of his bluffs are crushing her.
    - Guvante 4y ago
      I never claimed it was good play, just that it is believable play. Also the whole counterpoint hinges on not believing she felt she was calling a bluff which she explicitly called her plays as being.
tux1968 4y ago
Not saying it's the case here, or even that anyone has suggested it's remotely suspected, but some cheating involves knowing what card the dealer is going to play next.
- Guvante 4y ago
  Her odds were 47%. To claim she needed to know she was ahead to possibly win makes zero sense. He was behind and needed an out. So many outs existed he was more likely to win but "high card beats almost flush/straight".
  - tux1968 4y ago
    I hesitate to reply, because it's not a very important point I was making. But to be clear, if she was cheating by knowing for a fact what card the dealer was about to play (and her opponent's hole cards), then none of those odds you mention, matter. Edit: And again, not saying this is remotely a possibility here, or has been suggested by anyone. But all the cards were in fact known by the television program covering the table, and there have been cases of someone in the control booth feeding info back to a cheater at the table.
    - alasdair_ 4y ago
      The hole cards were known. I'm not sure that the cards in the deck that were still to come were known by anyone. They use RFID tags and I doubt there is a reader on the planet that can pick out the exact order of 40+ un-powered tags stacked on top of each other. And if she only knew the hole cards, that only tells her she is 47% to win. I mean, it's still +EV because of pot odds, and it's possible a cheat happened I guess, but it's hardly conclusive. To reasonably allege cheating requires more than a sample size of one hand.

Guvante 4y ago

If she pegged him as going for a straight her odds probably weren't bad making the move a decent +EV. And it would also match her banter of "you probably got me".

__blockcipher__ 4y ago
She specifically said she put him on ace high at one point, at which point Garrett retorts that (paraphrased, despite the quotes) "if she thought he had ace high why would she call with jack high?"
- Guvante 4y ago
  There needs to be more evidence of cheating then "no one calls with Jack crap" (they totally do), "she had the better had" (she did not unless she knew the deck which requires way more evidence than presented), "the pot odds were good" (which any player would know was true if their opponent didn't pair up or have a better high card), or "flustered player who just won $130k on a bad call is flustered".

mod 4y ago

She's also not losing the hand at the time she called, percentage wise, unless you factor in the cards folded by the other players. We don't know if she had that information.

Guvante 4y ago
Nothing you said makes sense in the context of cheating in this game. How could she know only his cards? Or how could she know the rivers without knowing anyone else's cards? It was effectively a coin flip given how many outs he had and the fact that her hand was better at the turn. Saying she needed to cheat to win a coin flip is just weird. Also the fact that it is a coin flip is well known in the poker community. If you haven't heard people bitching about losing to JX you haven't played enough.
- mod 4y ago
  Her call is good even if she knows his hand. Amazingly good, since almost no players have ever called with jack high, no draw. Ever. I think if she cheated (I don't have any strong opinions on whether she did), that her signal was binary. It makes the most sense given her actions, and inability to explain them. Buzzer that buzzes when "you have the best hand right now" makes a lot of sense and is easy for a bad player to understand. It's a coin flip, but she's 55% favorite unless she knows the discarded/dead cards. If she knows them, she has 47% equity which makes her call very profitable given the pot size of 40k. This is basic "pot odds" or EV calculation, I encourage you to do it. If she didn't know his exact hand, her play is unspeakably bad. She has virtually zero equity against Garrett's range here. He's holding one of the two or three hands she can beat given his line. Most of his bluffs are crushing her.
  - Guvante 4y ago
    I never claimed it was good play, just that it is believable play. Also the whole counterpoint hinges on not believing she felt she was calling a bluff which she explicitly called her plays as being.

tux1968 4y ago

Not saying it's the case here, or even that anyone has suggested it's remotely suspected, but some cheating involves knowing what card the dealer is going to play next.

Guvante 4y ago
Her odds were 47%. To claim she needed to know she was ahead to possibly win makes zero sense. He was behind and needed an out. So many outs existed he was more likely to win but "high card beats almost flush/straight".
- tux1968 4y ago
  I hesitate to reply, because it's not a very important point I was making. But to be clear, if she was cheating by knowing for a fact what card the dealer was about to play (and her opponent's hole cards), then none of those odds you mention, matter. Edit: And again, not saying this is remotely a possibility here, or has been suggested by anyone. But all the cards were in fact known by the television program covering the table, and there have been cases of someone in the control booth feeding info back to a cheater at the table.
  - alasdair_ 4y ago
    The hole cards were known. I'm not sure that the cards in the deck that were still to come were known by anyone. They use RFID tags and I doubt there is a reader on the planet that can pick out the exact order of 40+ un-powered tags stacked on top of each other. And if she only knew the hole cards, that only tells her she is 47% to win. I mean, it's still +EV because of pot odds, and it's possible a cheat happened I guess, but it's hardly conclusive. To reasonably allege cheating requires more than a sample size of one hand.