4 ms·

We haven't had a single quarter of negative growth, unemployment is at 6%, and people are calling it a "depression". +1 point for the sensationalist media.

jhancock 18y ago
+50 points for people starting to pay attention to something whose dangers was clearly written about for 5 to 8 years. No, it didn't make the front page of mass consumer papers, but there has been solid information that the economic structure of at least the last 20 years could become unstable and was being abused. Economic systems do end. Currencies do die or lose their leadership position. Has America's time come? Maybe. I think its close enough to it that its wise to think about basic things like where and how to live safe and comfortable. If we are in for 10 years of depression, it is wise to not live in large urban areas that will see crime rate soar.
- kirse 18y ago
  I think it's sheer ignorance to believe that this current economic situation is just going to "blow over" like the last recession we had. We're not just going to spend and leverage our way out of this one (as we have with previous recessions) because the trust and confidence in credit is extremely shaky. The last 30 years, since about 1980, have been fueled by a ridiculous amount of credit and the bills are coming due. It's now an issue of people and their confidence. The whole system of credit works because of trust, and with each bank failure and company fallout confidence is going to drop. This isn't just consumer confidence too, but also confidence on the part of foreign countries to believe that we'll make good on our insane level of debt. We haven't had a negative quarter or high unemployment yet because 2008 just marked the significant beginning of this erosion of confidence and the revaluing of the massive bullshitting of on-paper "value" created by abnormal demand (fueled by credit). This "confidence crunch" is far from over.
  - lacker 18y ago
    I wouldn't call it "sheer ignorance" - I don't think anyone can predict what is going to happen. If you think we are going to fall further, then buy some gold and make yourself some money.
alecco 18y ago
Sure, this is only a recession so far and on Monday a recovery of the stock is expected after a worldwide coordinated plan is coming. Even if that works, the problem is far from over as the IMF, World Bank, and major players state the risk. But back to calling names... From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_(economics) "There is no official definition for a depression." "a depression is characterized by 'unusual' increases" [ ] "unusual" increases in unemployment [ X ] restriction of credit [ X ] shrinking output and investment [ X ] price deflation or hyperinflation [ X ] numerous bankruptcies [ X ] reduced amounts of trade and commerce [ X ] volatile/erratic relative currency value fluctuations Many of those are just starting but coming strong. For example all the announcements on mass layoffs (eBay, HP, and Virginia state.)
- lacker 18y ago
  Actually, it is not even formally a recession yet. No official declaration has been made by the NBER (official definition in the U.S.) nor have there been two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP (the traditional rule of thumb). See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#2008_recession_in_some_countries http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#2008_recession_in_som... According to Intrade there is even a 20% chance or so that we avoid recession entirely for the next couple quarters.
trevelyan 18y ago
Long term unemployed and discouraged workers puts the unemployment rate around 11%. If you're going to call numbers, please either know what they mean, or explain why your 6% figure is somehow more relevant than the figure that... uh.... measures the total number of unemployed who'd rather be working.
- lacker 18y ago
  Come on... there is a standard definition of the "unemployment rate" and that's what the original poster is using. Historically speaking we are not yet at recession levels of unemployment. I'm not saying things are going well... just that there is a lot more room for things to get worse. :-/

jhancock 18y ago

+50 points for people starting to pay attention to something whose dangers was clearly written about for 5 to 8 years. No, it didn't make the front page of mass consumer papers, but there has been solid information that the economic structure of at least the last 20 years could become unstable and was being abused. Economic systems do end. Currencies do die or lose their leadership position. Has America's time come? Maybe. I think its close enough to it that its wise to think about basic things like where and how to live safe and comfortable. If we are in for 10 years of depression, it is wise to not live in large urban areas that will see crime rate soar.

kirse 18y ago
I think it's sheer ignorance to believe that this current economic situation is just going to "blow over" like the last recession we had. We're not just going to spend and leverage our way out of this one (as we have with previous recessions) because the trust and confidence in credit is extremely shaky. The last 30 years, since about 1980, have been fueled by a ridiculous amount of credit and the bills are coming due. It's now an issue of people and their confidence. The whole system of credit works because of trust, and with each bank failure and company fallout confidence is going to drop. This isn't just consumer confidence too, but also confidence on the part of foreign countries to believe that we'll make good on our insane level of debt. We haven't had a negative quarter or high unemployment yet because 2008 just marked the significant beginning of this erosion of confidence and the revaluing of the massive bullshitting of on-paper "value" created by abnormal demand (fueled by credit). This "confidence crunch" is far from over.
- lacker 18y ago
  I wouldn't call it "sheer ignorance" - I don't think anyone can predict what is going to happen. If you think we are going to fall further, then buy some gold and make yourself some money.

alecco 18y ago

Sure, this is only a recession so far and on Monday a recovery of the stock is expected after a worldwide coordinated plan is coming. Even if that works, the problem is far from over as the IMF, World Bank, and major players state the risk. But back to calling names... From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_(economics) "There is no official definition for a depression." "a depression is characterized by 'unusual' increases" [ ] "unusual" increases in unemployment [ X ] restriction of credit [ X ] shrinking output and investment [ X ] price deflation or hyperinflation [ X ] numerous bankruptcies [ X ] reduced amounts of trade and commerce [ X ] volatile/erratic relative currency value fluctuations Many of those are just starting but coming strong. For example all the announcements on mass layoffs (eBay, HP, and Virginia state.)

lacker 18y ago
Actually, it is not even formally a recession yet. No official declaration has been made by the NBER (official definition in the U.S.) nor have there been two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP (the traditional rule of thumb). See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#2008_recession_in_some_countries http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#2008_recession_in_som... According to Intrade there is even a 20% chance or so that we avoid recession entirely for the next couple quarters.

trevelyan 18y ago

Long term unemployed and discouraged workers puts the unemployment rate around 11%. If you're going to call numbers, please either know what they mean, or explain why your 6% figure is somehow more relevant than the figure that... uh.... measures the total number of unemployed who'd rather be working.

lacker 18y ago
Come on... there is a standard definition of the "unemployment rate" and that's what the original poster is using. Historically speaking we are not yet at recession levels of unemployment. I'm not saying things are going well... just that there is a lot more room for things to get worse. :-/