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I considered that as well but Russia would probably brush off just about any conventional response, even if it was significant like reducing Kalingrad to rubble

by JustLurking2022 4y ago

I considered that as well but Russia would probably brush off just about any conventional response, even if it was significant like reducing Kalingrad to rubble. Adding in China fully cutting them off might get close, but there would be little way to prevent them from resuming business a few months later. All in all, it's dangerous to let a deranged enemy think that the consequences for the use of nuclear weapons might be anything less than a nuclear response - allows them to think that it's a game of calculus that can be turned in their favor.

yobbo 4y ago
"Tactical" nukes are scary from a psychological point of view, but probably not very usable unless the aim is to kill civilians in densely populated areas, or destroy an aircraft carrier, or a military base. It's not useful against a geographically distributed army that functions like a guerilla army. Using one of their nukes to take out a single himars is just dumb, even by Russian standards. They could burn through their stock pile in Ukraine, and still not achieve much tactical progress. The response to using nukes on civilians probably starts with cruise missiles on Russian military targets. An escalation which Russia would eventually lose with certainty, and a final end to the "Russian Federation". This is not desirable to their leadership at all.
- JustLurking2022 4y ago
  The Ukrainians will increasingly be in the mode of having to hold territory while Russia would probably be willing to call it a victory if they level the place and make it uninhabitable for anyone, so I wouldn't assume they'll even bother aiming much. And let's say we do strike back with cruise missiles - it's unlikely to trigger Putin being overthrown. In fact, it may even convince some people on the fence that it really has been a war with the US for the survival of Russia all along. He has to retaliate so as not to appear weak, how can he reach an American target, even just an overseas base? I'm honestly not sure. The scenario where his nuke draws one in return is just as messy with the out that it's so utterly shocking that it forces both sides to confront the fact that no one wants a nuclear war. I really think China holds all the cards here - if they seriously threatened to cut Russia off over nukes, I don't think any get dropped. If they make wishy washy statements, there's a real chance they do.

yobbo 4y ago

"Tactical" nukes are scary from a psychological point of view, but probably not very usable unless the aim is to kill civilians in densely populated areas, or destroy an aircraft carrier, or a military base. It's not useful against a geographically distributed army that functions like a guerilla army. Using one of their nukes to take out a single himars is just dumb, even by Russian standards. They could burn through their stock pile in Ukraine, and still not achieve much tactical progress. The response to using nukes on civilians probably starts with cruise missiles on Russian military targets. An escalation which Russia would eventually lose with certainty, and a final end to the "Russian Federation". This is not desirable to their leadership at all.

JustLurking2022 4y ago
The Ukrainians will increasingly be in the mode of having to hold territory while Russia would probably be willing to call it a victory if they level the place and make it uninhabitable for anyone, so I wouldn't assume they'll even bother aiming much. And let's say we do strike back with cruise missiles - it's unlikely to trigger Putin being overthrown. In fact, it may even convince some people on the fence that it really has been a war with the US for the survival of Russia all along. He has to retaliate so as not to appear weak, how can he reach an American target, even just an overseas base? I'm honestly not sure. The scenario where his nuke draws one in return is just as messy with the out that it's so utterly shocking that it forces both sides to confront the fact that no one wants a nuclear war. I really think China holds all the cards here - if they seriously threatened to cut Russia off over nukes, I don't think any get dropped. If they make wishy washy statements, there's a real chance they do.