3 ms·

It would not surprise me if a large part of this is not driven by an attempt to control the drug trade (e.g., opium) that flows through the golden triangle and

by csa 4y ago

It would not surprise me if a large part of this is not driven by an attempt to control the drug trade (e.g., opium) that flows through the golden triangle and southwest China. Note that this trade is huge and is a problem in China. I don’t want to sound like an apologist (not a fan of this line of action for a number of reasons), but the focus on the nine forbidden countries (mostly in Southeast Asia) and the number of folks repatriated from those countries makes me think that this is not a small part of the motivation behind these actions.

walterbell 4y ago
In that scenario, a public transparency report on involuntary returnee legal cases would be a good start.
- csa 4y ago
  > In that scenario, a public transparency report on involuntary returnee legal cases would be a good start. Why would they do that? I’m pretty sure that the powers that be in China don’t really care about the opinions of advocates of human rights, government transparency, etc. They probably are also not keen on airing their dirty laundry with regards to the drug trade. Chinese leaders pretty much double dog dare any country not to trade with them based on any set of principles, knowing that the other country will be the one that suffers the most. The US is maybe the only country that could stand up to China, but the US and China are in super weird but oddly balanced symbiotic relationship that would become mutually destructive if one side decides to force its will on the other.
  - walterbell 4y ago
    > Why would they do that? The history of human civilization has countless examples. Those who willfully ignore history can enjoy speedrunning it instead.
  - nyokodo 4y ago
    > the powers that be in China don’t really care about the opinions of advocates of human rights Perhaps, although the recent Chinese adoption of wolf warrior diplomacy [1] makes it appear like they care and are trying to cover it up with bluster. China “doth protest too much, methinks.” 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warrior_diplomacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warrior_diplomacy
- mrjin 4y ago
  To be fair, have western media ever stopped trying to demonize the Chinese government, no matter what it did? I thought I knew where Xinjiang was until I saw the CNN news regarding it with a map showing it in somewhere near Guangdong. Another example was the Chinese police event recorder version of the BBC interviews in Xinjiang. Given such conditions, why would Chinese government give a f*ck about whatever it's doing? It will be attacked anyway, disclosing stuffs just open more attacking surfaces.
  - walterbell 4y ago
    > whatever it's doing? "Doing" in dozens of western cities is a ball game that includes the popular opinion of millions of inhabitants of said cities.
livueta 4y ago
Weird that this is downvoted; it is quite factual. I think you're right about it being centered on Zomia: > The majority of identified targets were located in northern Myanmar. but your specific example of the illicit trade is slightly off: aiui, the relevance of the golden triangle as an opioid producer has actually fallen off since the early 2000s as a result of DEA pressure and market shifts, but the slack was taken up by amphetamines (mostly ya ba). https://www.unodc.org/roseap//en/2021/02/myanmar-opium-survey-report-launch/story.html https://www.unodc.org/roseap//en/2021/02/myanmar-opium-surve... > A new report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) confirms that production and demand for opium has further declined as the region’s synthetic drug market continues to expand and diversify. That change in drug profile appears to also be true in Yunnan: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2018.00256/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2018.0025... > The prevalence rate of heroin use decreased from 0.67% (0.63–0.73%) in 2011 to 0.57% (0.53–0.61%) in 2015, while the prevalence rate of methamphetamine use doubled from 0.20% (0.17–0.24%) in 2011 to 0.48% (0.46–0.50%) in 2015. However, you are absolutely correct that even accounting for trends, Burma is the source of most of both opioids and amphetamines: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/a-peoples-war-final.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/a-peopl... > Myanmar is believed to be the single largest supplier of China’s drug market. In 2013, 92.2 percent of the heroin and 95.2 percent of methamphetamine seized in China were traced to Myanmar. All that said, Chinese in northern Burma also tend to be associated with other rackets: > Solely in Wanding (畹町), a river port bordering Myanmar in Ruili city,Yunnan province, over 960 suspects of telecom fraud and over 100 suspects of cross-border gambling Cross-border gambling is huge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mong_La https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mong_La is basically a city-sized casino, built directly across the border from Yunnan (which is incredibly porous due to the terrain, so just clamping down on crossings doesn't work). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangkham https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangkham is the same deal but in Wa territory, not Shan. The CCP really really hates cross-border gambling for a variety of reasons, including capital outflows and its nexus with domestic corruption: https://agbrief.com/news/china/09/04/2021/chinas-cross-border-gambling-fight-steps-up-a-notch/ https://agbrief.com/news/china/09/04/2021/chinas-cross-borde... https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/02/17/china-vows-to-accelerate-fight-against-cross-border-gambling/ https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/02/17/china-vows-to-acc... There's also a lot of jade/amber/wildlife smuggling but the gambling thing really is astonishingly huge business in northern Burma. So, I see it as a "yes, and": there's a lot of reasons why the CCP would want to crack down on the behavior of Chinese in northern Burma, and the drug trade is a plausible one.
aaaaaaaaaaab 4y ago
>e.g., opium lol, are we back to the 19th century?
- csa 4y ago
  > lol, are we back to the 19th century? Are you suggesting that the opium trade in the golden triangle and China is not a thing? If it makes you feel better, we can call it heroin, which is derived from opium.
  - walterbell 4y ago
    Unlike the first opium war, the current incarnation includes a fentanyl supply chain that terminates in North America and starts ..where?
    - novok 4y ago
      A lot of it is made in China ironically enough last time I looked.
    - brippalcharrid 4y ago
      A lot of the precursors are made in Wuhan [1], and then make their way to labs in Mexico before the product is sent to the US [2]. 1. https://archive.ph/5HZFc https://archive.ph/5HZFc 2. https://www.wsj.com/story/inside-the-mexican-cartels-that-rule-fentanyl-smuggling-48b5c665 https://www.wsj.com/story/inside-the-mexican-cartels-that-ru...
- collegeburner 4y ago
  nope, a shitton of amphetamines and fentanyl that end up here poisoning our population start there. we should be at war with china the way she is doing this. over 100,000 a year from opioids alone. Australia getting hit with meth explosions in a similar manner. exporting drugs is china's sneaky way of weakening her competition.
mrjin 4y ago
This is very unlikely related with drug trafficking but really to stop fraud activities. The reason is really simple, crimes associated with drugs in China can lead to death penalties and the threshold is very low. So in most cases people caught with drug trafficking in China are popped, no matter of their nationalities. Not sure if you guys ever received calls claiming that they were DHL/FedEx etc, and there was a package for you to pick up. More ridiculously, sometimes they even claim to be the Chinese Embassy and of course there was package for you to pick up. So that was that.
- dg7agffa52222 4y ago
  > Not sure if you guys ever received calls claiming that they were DHL/FedEx etc, and there was a package for you to pick up. More ridiculously, sometimes they even claim to be the Chinese Embassy and of course there was package for you to pick up. Can you elaborate? this happened to my partner and we thought it was something targeted at Chinese foreigners. They were persistent and it was kind of worrying because my partner accidentally gave up a small bit of information before catching on that it was not legit. Are they trying to do identity fraud?
dirtyid 4y ago
Variety of illegal activities, from illegal telefraud to gambling designed to circumvent PRC gaming laws. Philippines just agreed to deport 40000 chinese workers involved in offshore gambling. Lots of low level crime out there host country wants to sort out but no extradition treaty due to geopolitics. PRC's most wanted big fish list is like 20 people.

by csa 4y ago

walterbell 4y ago

In that scenario, a public transparency report on involuntary returnee legal cases would be a good start.

csa 4y ago
> In that scenario, a public transparency report on involuntary returnee legal cases would be a good start. Why would they do that? I’m pretty sure that the powers that be in China don’t really care about the opinions of advocates of human rights, government transparency, etc. They probably are also not keen on airing their dirty laundry with regards to the drug trade. Chinese leaders pretty much double dog dare any country not to trade with them based on any set of principles, knowing that the other country will be the one that suffers the most. The US is maybe the only country that could stand up to China, but the US and China are in super weird but oddly balanced symbiotic relationship that would become mutually destructive if one side decides to force its will on the other.
- walterbell 4y ago
  > Why would they do that? The history of human civilization has countless examples. Those who willfully ignore history can enjoy speedrunning it instead.
- nyokodo 4y ago
  > the powers that be in China don’t really care about the opinions of advocates of human rights Perhaps, although the recent Chinese adoption of wolf warrior diplomacy [1] makes it appear like they care and are trying to cover it up with bluster. China “doth protest too much, methinks.” 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warrior_diplomacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warrior_diplomacy
mrjin 4y ago
To be fair, have western media ever stopped trying to demonize the Chinese government, no matter what it did? I thought I knew where Xinjiang was until I saw the CNN news regarding it with a map showing it in somewhere near Guangdong. Another example was the Chinese police event recorder version of the BBC interviews in Xinjiang. Given such conditions, why would Chinese government give a f*ck about whatever it's doing? It will be attacked anyway, disclosing stuffs just open more attacking surfaces.
- walterbell 4y ago
  > whatever it's doing? "Doing" in dozens of western cities is a ball game that includes the popular opinion of millions of inhabitants of said cities.

livueta 4y ago

Weird that this is downvoted; it is quite factual. I think you're right about it being centered on Zomia: > The majority of identified targets were located in northern Myanmar. but your specific example of the illicit trade is slightly off: aiui, the relevance of the golden triangle as an opioid producer has actually fallen off since the early 2000s as a result of DEA pressure and market shifts, but the slack was taken up by amphetamines (mostly ya ba). https://www.unodc.org/roseap//en/2021/02/myanmar-opium-survey-report-launch/story.html https://www.unodc.org/roseap//en/2021/02/myanmar-opium-surve... > A new report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) confirms that production and demand for opium has further declined as the region’s synthetic drug market continues to expand and diversify. That change in drug profile appears to also be true in Yunnan: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2018.00256/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2018.0025... > The prevalence rate of heroin use decreased from 0.67% (0.63–0.73%) in 2011 to 0.57% (0.53–0.61%) in 2015, while the prevalence rate of methamphetamine use doubled from 0.20% (0.17–0.24%) in 2011 to 0.48% (0.46–0.50%) in 2015. However, you are absolutely correct that even accounting for trends, Burma is the source of most of both opioids and amphetamines: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/a-peoples-war-final.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/a-peopl... > Myanmar is believed to be the single largest supplier of China’s drug market. In 2013, 92.2 percent of the heroin and 95.2 percent of methamphetamine seized in China were traced to Myanmar. All that said, Chinese in northern Burma also tend to be associated with other rackets: > Solely in Wanding (畹町), a river port bordering Myanmar in Ruili city,Yunnan province, over 960 suspects of telecom fraud and over 100 suspects of cross-border gambling Cross-border gambling is huge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mong_La https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mong_La is basically a city-sized casino, built directly across the border from Yunnan (which is incredibly porous due to the terrain, so just clamping down on crossings doesn't work). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangkham https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangkham is the same deal but in Wa territory, not Shan. The CCP really really hates cross-border gambling for a variety of reasons, including capital outflows and its nexus with domestic corruption: https://agbrief.com/news/china/09/04/2021/chinas-cross-border-gambling-fight-steps-up-a-notch/ https://agbrief.com/news/china/09/04/2021/chinas-cross-borde... https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/02/17/china-vows-to-accelerate-fight-against-cross-border-gambling/ https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2022/02/17/china-vows-to-acc... There's also a lot of jade/amber/wildlife smuggling but the gambling thing really is astonishingly huge business in northern Burma. So, I see it as a "yes, and": there's a lot of reasons why the CCP would want to crack down on the behavior of Chinese in northern Burma, and the drug trade is a plausible one.

aaaaaaaaaaab 4y ago

>e.g., opium lol, are we back to the 19th century?

csa 4y ago
> lol, are we back to the 19th century? Are you suggesting that the opium trade in the golden triangle and China is not a thing? If it makes you feel better, we can call it heroin, which is derived from opium.
- walterbell 4y ago
  Unlike the first opium war, the current incarnation includes a fentanyl supply chain that terminates in North America and starts ..where?
  - novok 4y ago
    A lot of it is made in China ironically enough last time I looked.
  - brippalcharrid 4y ago
    A lot of the precursors are made in Wuhan [1], and then make their way to labs in Mexico before the product is sent to the US [2]. 1. https://archive.ph/5HZFc https://archive.ph/5HZFc 2. https://www.wsj.com/story/inside-the-mexican-cartels-that-rule-fentanyl-smuggling-48b5c665 https://www.wsj.com/story/inside-the-mexican-cartels-that-ru...
collegeburner 4y ago
nope, a shitton of amphetamines and fentanyl that end up here poisoning our population start there. we should be at war with china the way she is doing this. over 100,000 a year from opioids alone. Australia getting hit with meth explosions in a similar manner. exporting drugs is china's sneaky way of weakening her competition.

mrjin 4y ago

This is very unlikely related with drug trafficking but really to stop fraud activities. The reason is really simple, crimes associated with drugs in China can lead to death penalties and the threshold is very low. So in most cases people caught with drug trafficking in China are popped, no matter of their nationalities. Not sure if you guys ever received calls claiming that they were DHL/FedEx etc, and there was a package for you to pick up. More ridiculously, sometimes they even claim to be the Chinese Embassy and of course there was package for you to pick up. So that was that.

dg7agffa52222 4y ago
> Not sure if you guys ever received calls claiming that they were DHL/FedEx etc, and there was a package for you to pick up. More ridiculously, sometimes they even claim to be the Chinese Embassy and of course there was package for you to pick up. Can you elaborate? this happened to my partner and we thought it was something targeted at Chinese foreigners. They were persistent and it was kind of worrying because my partner accidentally gave up a small bit of information before catching on that it was not legit. Are they trying to do identity fraud?

dirtyid 4y ago

Variety of illegal activities, from illegal telefraud to gambling designed to circumvent PRC gaming laws. Philippines just agreed to deport 40000 chinese workers involved in offshore gambling. Lots of low level crime out there host country wants to sort out but no extradition treaty due to geopolitics. PRC's most wanted big fish list is like 20 people.