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Now that territories are “officially” part of russia putin can claim the country itself is under attack. Apparently that’s the only “legal” way he can use nukes

Now that territories are “officially” part of russia putin can claim the country itself is under attack. Apparently that’s the only “legal” way he can use nukes. Given that his army is in shambles and there’s mounting pressure at home due to conscriptions, he’ll want a quick end. He cant get one without too many casualties on russia’s side since ukraine is doing rather well. I mean how can he accept defeat? It would not just be his own demise but also russia’s as it would look weak among countries with similar political systems. Plus he keeps selling this conflict as an existential threat to everything russian (he wrongfully claims their very way of life is under threat - this is not something you retract at short notice meaning he wants to play the long game). Ukraine cant retreat either. So the only logical conclusion at the moment is that for russia to get out of this and still look like an actual power it needs to do something that stuns the rest of the world into backing off and potentially even retreating from some nato territory. And unless his new recruits pull some magic trick the only option left is the nuclear option.

hypertele-Xii 4y ago
> he wrongfully claims their very way of life is under threat Well, the Russian way of life seems to be to invade its neighbors, so yes, technically he's correct - sovereign well-defended neighbors are a threat to the Russian way of life. Maybe it's high time they find a new, better way of life.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  Sometimes i sit and wonder how badly they missed the opportunity for building a better country. A place that consistently births brilliant minds, has vast mineral and oil resources, a large landmass, spans across two continents and has access to a large number of countries, yet it chose to be a bully perpetually stuck in mud. Imagine the level of development it could have achieved had it not chosen to always be so belligerent. A shame really. I hope russians get something better because this is below their level.
  - hbrn 4y ago
    History and culture aside, there's a good chance they missed it precisely because of abundance of resources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
  - graderjs 4y ago
    Maybe if the US wasn't so concerned with competing them and stymieing them? Monroe doctrine? They could have built something better rather than feeling constantly under threat? Lesson for US in how to be alongside China: don't try to arrange world so that only choice is: 1) don't compete with us meaningfully economically, or 2) become a military threat target Tough love and hard to hear I bet but I think US needs to learn how to share and how to make it work for themselves to play second fiddle economically without getting violent or bitchy. Diva attitude hurts the classroom. Also: different system doesn't mean evil. World should have multiple different systems and nurture the economic development of all.
    - hypertele-Xii 4y ago
      Russians are scared of getting rich by participating in the world economy? Because they can't compete with literally any other country on literally anything? And that gives them the right to murder and rape other countries?
libertine 4y ago
>Now that territories are “officially” part of russia putin can claim the country itself is under attack. Apparently that’s the only “legal” way he can use nukes. I think you're missing two variables that could lower odds of the event of using nuclear weapons: - Ukraine has already attacked Russian territory (Belgorod), and occupied territory (Crimea); - Russia has broken a lot of of laws (national and international), treaties, agreements, contracts... I don't think being "legal" is a deterrent for anything. They can do what they want; They use this threat because they have nothing else at this time, and it's their last card.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  Indeed they likely attacked belgorod and crimea, but now there are ukranian troops on would be “russian ground”. Thats significantly different in putin’s mind. The signals he keeps sending are that: 1) russian territorial integrity under threat 2) nuclear bombs. We all said he wouldnt invade now we all say he wouldnt nuke. Who knows anyway. War is unpredictable. I hope i am wrong. But i fail to see an alternative course at the moment.
  - libertine 4y ago
    When you look at it, after all the bravado, they always wrap up with something in the lines of "if Russia existence is in threat". This war isn't aimed at ending Russia. In fact this war could end any time by Russia, there were many attempts and pleads to not even start the war. I don't know what's in Putin's mind, but looks like he going through all of this to survive and keep is position.
  - graderjs 4y ago
    We all said he wouldnt invade Mm, who do you mean by we? I remember a very long drumbeat from US press of "intelligence shows massive Russian military buildup along border and says Russia likely to invade"
graderjs 4y ago
It kind of sucks that all that spending on military technology still results in wars that are essentially stalemates. I would like to believe in a non-nuke "killshot" technical advantage (not great term). I thought we were there... Maybe such tech is beyond humans right now...or maybe a quick lower cost victory is just not profitable or useful enough :''''(

hypertele-Xii 4y ago

> he wrongfully claims their very way of life is under threat Well, the Russian way of life seems to be to invade its neighbors, so yes, technically he's correct - sovereign well-defended neighbors are a threat to the Russian way of life. Maybe it's high time they find a new, better way of life.

yrgulation 4y ago
Sometimes i sit and wonder how badly they missed the opportunity for building a better country. A place that consistently births brilliant minds, has vast mineral and oil resources, a large landmass, spans across two continents and has access to a large number of countries, yet it chose to be a bully perpetually stuck in mud. Imagine the level of development it could have achieved had it not chosen to always be so belligerent. A shame really. I hope russians get something better because this is below their level.
- hbrn 4y ago
  History and culture aside, there's a good chance they missed it precisely because of abundance of resources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
- graderjs 4y ago
  Maybe if the US wasn't so concerned with competing them and stymieing them? Monroe doctrine? They could have built something better rather than feeling constantly under threat? Lesson for US in how to be alongside China: don't try to arrange world so that only choice is: 1) don't compete with us meaningfully economically, or 2) become a military threat target Tough love and hard to hear I bet but I think US needs to learn how to share and how to make it work for themselves to play second fiddle economically without getting violent or bitchy. Diva attitude hurts the classroom. Also: different system doesn't mean evil. World should have multiple different systems and nurture the economic development of all.
  - hypertele-Xii 4y ago
    Russians are scared of getting rich by participating in the world economy? Because they can't compete with literally any other country on literally anything? And that gives them the right to murder and rape other countries?

libertine 4y ago

>Now that territories are “officially” part of russia putin can claim the country itself is under attack. Apparently that’s the only “legal” way he can use nukes. I think you're missing two variables that could lower odds of the event of using nuclear weapons: - Ukraine has already attacked Russian territory (Belgorod), and occupied territory (Crimea); - Russia has broken a lot of of laws (national and international), treaties, agreements, contracts... I don't think being "legal" is a deterrent for anything. They can do what they want; They use this threat because they have nothing else at this time, and it's their last card.

yrgulation 4y ago
Indeed they likely attacked belgorod and crimea, but now there are ukranian troops on would be “russian ground”. Thats significantly different in putin’s mind. The signals he keeps sending are that: 1) russian territorial integrity under threat 2) nuclear bombs. We all said he wouldnt invade now we all say he wouldnt nuke. Who knows anyway. War is unpredictable. I hope i am wrong. But i fail to see an alternative course at the moment.
- libertine 4y ago
  When you look at it, after all the bravado, they always wrap up with something in the lines of "if Russia existence is in threat". This war isn't aimed at ending Russia. In fact this war could end any time by Russia, there were many attempts and pleads to not even start the war. I don't know what's in Putin's mind, but looks like he going through all of this to survive and keep is position.
- graderjs 4y ago
  We all said he wouldnt invade Mm, who do you mean by we? I remember a very long drumbeat from US press of "intelligence shows massive Russian military buildup along border and says Russia likely to invade"

graderjs 4y ago

It kind of sucks that all that spending on military technology still results in wars that are essentially stalemates. I would like to believe in a non-nuke "killshot" technical advantage (not great term). I thought we were there... Maybe such tech is beyond humans right now...or maybe a quick lower cost victory is just not profitable or useful enough :''''(