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I think we're getting very close to a commercial office real-estate collapse in North America, and all the ensuing chaos that comes along with that. Commutes wi

I think we're getting very close to a commercial office real-estate collapse in North America, and all the ensuing chaos that comes along with that. Commutes will plummet, houses will need space to work, neighbourhoods may need more services as people "stay local".

pessimizer 4y ago
A better way to look at it is as a large permanent general productivity gain. If you wonder how a falling population can manage to take care of its seniors, it's by wringing productivity out of technology when we can.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
steveBK123 4y ago
There's already a micro version of this happening in NYC the last 18 months. Residential neighborhoods that are normally dead on weekdays daytime are suddenly filled with people while midtown/fidi office areas are significantly quieter. There's already been impact to relative apartment rents, especially with younger people who are picking neighborhoods based less on commute time and more on lifestyle. I can imagine a lot of NYC commuter suburbs will see similar effect. People I know in tech in NYC with high paying jobs have moved deeper into suburbs, banking on being WFH more than in-office. In before-times, fully in-office, workers were commuting 60+% of the 365 days of year (after removing weekends/holidays/vacations/sick days) Even in a median 2-3 days in-office case, people could be commuting as few as 20% of days of year. Spending 90min/way on the train but only 20-25% of calendar days starts to feel manageable if you were previously doing 60% of your days on the train for 60min/way.
- xbmcuser 4y ago
  Yeah it was interesting to see https://www.youtube.com/user/rossmanngroup https://www.youtube.com/user/rossmanngroup commercial estate videos how large portion of real estate is up for rent in NY but as the house of cards is built on cheap mortgage or black money no one is willing to bring down rent. Even NY government is unwilling to as that would mean they would loose billions in property taxes. But as interest rates rise landlords will come under pressure to sell the properties or lower the rent so that they can at least meat interest payments which will result in lower valuations and margin calls.
rabuse 4y ago
I'm all for it, honestly.
faeriechangling 4y ago
I’m so bearish on commercial real estate I’m hibernating in a cave and I’m not going to feel comfortable investing until I see it crash to earth. The fact the pricing is staying as high as it is, that’s nothing but total madness. Work from home isn’t going to stop. We’ve been desensitized to how ridiculous the status quo is. Like driving to a callcenter so you can be next to people shouting at their phone as you stare straight forward at a computer screen before going home.
vorpalhex 4y ago
I don't like density. I understand where pro-density people are coming from, but I think there is a max density where people lose too much freedom. Getting rid of commutes and letting everyone have a smaller required radius is a big winner. It's a winner for pollution, for transportation and for family/work balance.
newaccount2021 4y ago

pessimizer 4y ago

A better way to look at it is as a large permanent general productivity gain. If you wonder how a falling population can manage to take care of its seniors, it's by wringing productivity out of technology when we can.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

steveBK123 4y ago

There's already a micro version of this happening in NYC the last 18 months. Residential neighborhoods that are normally dead on weekdays daytime are suddenly filled with people while midtown/fidi office areas are significantly quieter. There's already been impact to relative apartment rents, especially with younger people who are picking neighborhoods based less on commute time and more on lifestyle. I can imagine a lot of NYC commuter suburbs will see similar effect. People I know in tech in NYC with high paying jobs have moved deeper into suburbs, banking on being WFH more than in-office. In before-times, fully in-office, workers were commuting 60+% of the 365 days of year (after removing weekends/holidays/vacations/sick days) Even in a median 2-3 days in-office case, people could be commuting as few as 20% of days of year. Spending 90min/way on the train but only 20-25% of calendar days starts to feel manageable if you were previously doing 60% of your days on the train for 60min/way.

xbmcuser 4y ago
Yeah it was interesting to see https://www.youtube.com/user/rossmanngroup https://www.youtube.com/user/rossmanngroup commercial estate videos how large portion of real estate is up for rent in NY but as the house of cards is built on cheap mortgage or black money no one is willing to bring down rent. Even NY government is unwilling to as that would mean they would loose billions in property taxes. But as interest rates rise landlords will come under pressure to sell the properties or lower the rent so that they can at least meat interest payments which will result in lower valuations and margin calls.

rabuse 4y ago

I'm all for it, honestly.

faeriechangling 4y ago

I’m so bearish on commercial real estate I’m hibernating in a cave and I’m not going to feel comfortable investing until I see it crash to earth. The fact the pricing is staying as high as it is, that’s nothing but total madness. Work from home isn’t going to stop. We’ve been desensitized to how ridiculous the status quo is. Like driving to a callcenter so you can be next to people shouting at their phone as you stare straight forward at a computer screen before going home.

vorpalhex 4y ago

I don't like density. I understand where pro-density people are coming from, but I think there is a max density where people lose too much freedom. Getting rid of commutes and letting everyone have a smaller required radius is a big winner. It's a winner for pollution, for transportation and for family/work balance.

newaccount2021 4y ago