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I believe the author is referring to the money Taleb made during the 2008 financial crash, rather literally betting against people using mathematics to model co
by NateEag 4y ago
I believe the author is referring to the money Taleb made during the 2008 financial crash, rather literally betting against people using mathematics to model complex systems (which collapsed and failed rather badly, much as Taleb predicts).
Wikipedia has some links to sources in the summary section:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb
- pas 4y agoThere's this big trope about how "models don't work", because black swans, etc. (Let's not get into the fact that this claim is itself a model, and his own investment strategy is, of course, based on his model.) But the question is, is this really true? Why isn't Taleb the richest person? (I remember reading somewhere that his strategy of betting against the mainstream underperformed, but he might have made a biiig windfall due to COVID & the war? But are those enough to offset the previous underperformances?)
- NateEag 4y agoI haven't read the books, but I believe his argument is not "models don't work," but rather "all models are flawed, and you can't reliably predict the critical flaws. So, don't treat them with blind trust - adapt your strategies to the fact that some of your models will fail without warning and in ways you can't predict."