It's not possible, because monetary policy tends to be a lagging indicator of recessions [1] whereas the stock market is a leading indicator of recessions [2].

It's not possible, because monetary policy tends to be a lagging indicator of recessions [1] whereas the stock market is a leading indicator of recessions [2]. Also, there's the problem that dropping the interest rate doesn't mean the Fed will continue to drop it to zero. Similarly increasing the interest rate doesn't mean the Fed will continue to increase it until we hit a recession. The predictive power provided by such a lagging indicator combined with an imperfect correlation means that monetary policy alone isn't enough to time the market. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRUSM193N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRUSM193N [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM