I don't know about Burry, but Nate Silver has been right more than just once! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ https://projects.fivethirt

I don't know about Burry, but Nate Silver has been right more than just once! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ is a statistical analysis of 538's track record in forecasting elections going back to 2008. The analysis shows that 538's predictions are generally pretty well-calibrated, in the sense that e.g. if there were 100 races where 538 predicted "Democrats have a 70% chance of winning this race", then the Democrats did actually win about 70/100 of those races.