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This makes a (pretty huge) assumption that the characteristics of this recession will match the last one. But the underlying fundamentals appear to be very diff
by rco8786 4y ago
This makes a (pretty huge) assumption that the characteristics of this recession will match the last one. But the underlying fundamentals appear to be very different, so far.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago... indeed, to the point where there is still debate about this actually is a recession. NBER, for example, have not yet called it (likely on account of the employment situation, which is very non-recession-like).
- llampx 4y agoThe Fed first claimed that there would be no inflation due to their COVID monetary policies and the fiscal policies of the government, then that it would be transitory. https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-keeps-key-rate-near-zero-sees-inflation-as-transitory-2021-4?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-keeps-key-rate-near-zero... Take what theses official mouthpieces say with a pinch of salt, because part of their box of tools is jawboning on TV. Fake it till you make it policymaking.
- rco8786 4y agoThis is why my original comment ended with "so far". In any case, we definitively do not have millions of people sitting on ARMs that just went from from 2% to 7% like we saw in '08.