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So crazy that we are just all mutually agreeing there is a recession when it is not clear that there is going to be. Group psychology is just amazing like that

So crazy that we are just all mutually agreeing there is a recession when it is not clear that there is going to be. Group psychology is just amazing like that. Don't time your investments - use asset allocation to decide what you invest in and then always just do what it says. So if your target allocation is 75% stocks and 25% bonds, just buy stocks and bonds in the appropriate mix with your savings to keep your ratio level. This tends to have you buy stocks when they are low and sell high by the nature of maintaining this ratio. Do this rebalancing twice a year. For most of this, this will mean just buying more of something to rebalance with the savings from the previous six months.

pb7 4y ago
What is your criteria for whether we are in/not in a recession?
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  There’s never been one coinciding with a full-employment unemployment rate. If this is a recession, it’s unusual.
  - pb7 4y ago
    Doesn’t unemployment follow a contraction in the economy? We’re seeing a lot of layoffs* right now because business has slowed down, and if other companies also have hiring freezes, those people will stay unemployed. *and it looks like just the beginning
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      It's not typical to have rock-bottom unemployment and blowout monthly job numbers on the way into a recession, no. https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/is-us-in-a-recession-employment-unemployment.aspx https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acqu... > Yet economists seem to agree that if the U.S. is in a recession, it's unlike any previous one. > "This is going to be about the most pleasant way to go through a recession," said Ron Hetrick, senior economist at Lightcast. "Employers are still starving to get employees. They were never able to hire them when they had so much demand. I absolutely believe this is not going to be the kind of pain that we usually associate with a recession, historically speaking."
randerson 4y ago
We are already in a recession. Maybe not by the official definition that you can only measure after 2 quarters, but it is pretty clear that the country is producing fewer goods and services, especially after adjusting for inflation.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
  That is not the official NBER definition. You can find that here: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business...
  - randerson 4y ago
    Compared to 2019, a million died, some became disabled, and plenty of people have checked out with early retirements / sabbaticals / downgrading to less stressful jobs / quiet quitting. And I don't care what people say, teams get less done in a remote environment. There is just no way that the same amount of work is getting done now compared to 3 years ago.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
      And yet ... > But it is. Total employment is half a million higher than it was before the pandemic, and this recovery includes virtually every individual industry. The only real exceptions are restaurants and hotels, which are 300-400,000 short of their pre-pandemic numbers, and government, which is 500,000 short. https://jabberwocking.com/employment-has-recovered-to-pre-pandemic-levels-almost-everywhere/ https://jabberwocking.com/employment-has-recovered-to-pre-pa...
      - randerson 4y ago
        I am genuinely both surprised and fascinated by this. So many industries cite a shortage of people (pilots, truck drivers, doctors, and so on), whereas this shows an increase in the amount of employees in those industries. What is generating all the extra demand? Or were we just more efficient in 2019, getting the same or more done with less? GDP certainly doesn't seem to have risen at the rate of employment which leads me to believe the latter.

pb7 4y ago

What is your criteria for whether we are in/not in a recession?

ceejayoz 4y ago
There’s never been one coinciding with a full-employment unemployment rate. If this is a recession, it’s unusual.
- pb7 4y ago
  Doesn’t unemployment follow a contraction in the economy? We’re seeing a lot of layoffs* right now because business has slowed down, and if other companies also have hiring freezes, those people will stay unemployed. *and it looks like just the beginning
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    It's not typical to have rock-bottom unemployment and blowout monthly job numbers on the way into a recession, no. https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/is-us-in-a-recession-employment-unemployment.aspx https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acqu... > Yet economists seem to agree that if the U.S. is in a recession, it's unlike any previous one. > "This is going to be about the most pleasant way to go through a recession," said Ron Hetrick, senior economist at Lightcast. "Employers are still starving to get employees. They were never able to hire them when they had so much demand. I absolutely believe this is not going to be the kind of pain that we usually associate with a recession, historically speaking."

randerson 4y ago

We are already in a recession. Maybe not by the official definition that you can only measure after 2 quarters, but it is pretty clear that the country is producing fewer goods and services, especially after adjusting for inflation.

PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
That is not the official NBER definition. You can find that here: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business...
- randerson 4y ago
  Compared to 2019, a million died, some became disabled, and plenty of people have checked out with early retirements / sabbaticals / downgrading to less stressful jobs / quiet quitting. And I don't care what people say, teams get less done in a remote environment. There is just no way that the same amount of work is getting done now compared to 3 years ago.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
    And yet ... > But it is. Total employment is half a million higher than it was before the pandemic, and this recovery includes virtually every individual industry. The only real exceptions are restaurants and hotels, which are 300-400,000 short of their pre-pandemic numbers, and government, which is 500,000 short. https://jabberwocking.com/employment-has-recovered-to-pre-pandemic-levels-almost-everywhere/ https://jabberwocking.com/employment-has-recovered-to-pre-pa...
    - randerson 4y ago
      I am genuinely both surprised and fascinated by this. So many industries cite a shortage of people (pilots, truck drivers, doctors, and so on), whereas this shows an increase in the amount of employees in those industries. What is generating all the extra demand? Or were we just more efficient in 2019, getting the same or more done with less? GDP certainly doesn't seem to have risen at the rate of employment which leads me to believe the latter.