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I also sold almost all my non-retirement stocks near the top and stopped purchasing more in mid 2021. I ignored the “timing the market” advice because it was ob

I also sold almost all my non-retirement stocks near the top and stopped purchasing more in mid 2021. I ignored the “timing the market” advice because it was obvious we were in an asset bubble and once inflation was in the mix, given low unemployment, the Fed mandate obviously pointed to interest rate hikes. I’d not purchase short ETFs unless you know what you are doing. They are not the same as your standard long ETF. They have to pay for the cost to borrow, likely have much higher management fees than eg Vanguard ETFs, and of course in the long run are not something you want to hold. You’d probably be better off holding short term treasuries (basically cash) hedged with some 1+y calls on broad market funds. If you want to buy back in sooner you could sell medium term puts. Or just lock in the gains you already made by purchasing now. Please please please before you buy a bond ETF recognize that it’s not the same as buying a bond. With a bond index you can lose money at mark-to-market that you’d only recoup after decades of interest or if we want back down to lower rates. While, in my opinion, the 1y outlook was clear 1y ago, it’s a lot less clear now. I don’t think anybody knows how high rates are going to have to go to stop inflation, the Fed timeline, and how bad a potential recession would be. An amicable end to the war in Ukraine could also fix the energy crisis quickly.

thunky 4y ago
> I also sold almost all my non-retirement stocks near the top You're halfway there. Let us know when you get back in.
- opportune 4y ago
  I’m personally planning on starting to buy back next week now that I am seeing so many retail investors interested in purchasing short ETFs. As I buy back in I hope to sell some puts with my cash In case you’re being snarky, it’s easy for me to “beat” the market now because I just have to buy back below like 5% off ATH. I also don’t think I can time the market any more, I (and many others actually) just saw a special macro opportunity during the end of the last bull run
  - thunky 4y ago
    Yeah that's true, but the closer you get to ATH I would imagine the harder it becomes psychologically to buy back in, because it feels like you're losing on the way up. If you go all in next week then yeah you're all the way there so congrats. If you take your time getting back in then it may work, may not, but good luck either way.
alister 4y ago
> before you buy a bond ETF recognize that it’s not the same as buying a bond. With a bond index you can lose money at mark-to-market that you’d only recoup after decades of interest or if we want back down to lower rates. Sounds super interesting but could you give a layman's explanation please?
- phkahler 4y ago
  Bonds pay a fixed return. You buy it and there is no question what the return is for the term of the bond. Bond funds on the other hand, buy and sell bonds in an attempt to do better but there is also risk of doing worse. You buy a $1000 bond that pays 2 percent for 5 years. Great, that's what you get. A fund buys the same bond and then interest rates rise, so they sell the bond at a slight loss (vs $1000) so they can invest in something with a better return. It becomes a bit of a game and can lose or gain vs the fixed return of buying and holding actual bonds.
- compumike 4y ago
  This article may be helpful: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Individual_bonds_vs_a_bond_fund https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Individual_bonds_vs_a_bond_f... Specifically: “Thus, the distinction between a non-rolling ladder (designed to meet date-certain future liabilities) and a rolling ladder (which essentially represents a personal bond fund) is much more important than the difference between a rolling ladder and a bond fund.” A one-off individual bond purchase, held to maturity, would be the simplest example of a “non-rolling ladder”. But even then, the individual bond if marked-to-market (or if you needed to liquidate it before maturity date) would have fluctuating market price. It’s only the intent to hold it to maturity that gives one the ability to choose to ignore the intermediate market price. And if you’re reinvesting it into more bonds (a “rolling ladder”) then you do have to care about market prices at reinvestment time regardless.
- nathanasmith 4y ago
  You buy a bond from the government for $1000 paying 5% interest and, as long as you keep the bond, you're guaranteed to get that interest money and get your $1000 back when the bond matures. A bond fund has no "maturation date" therefore the only money you get back from it is the current market rate of the bonds in it which could easily go up or down.
fuckHNtho 4y ago
"predicting the future was obvious in the past, but a lot harder in the present." ...really?

thunky 4y ago

> I also sold almost all my non-retirement stocks near the top You're halfway there. Let us know when you get back in.

opportune 4y ago
I’m personally planning on starting to buy back next week now that I am seeing so many retail investors interested in purchasing short ETFs. As I buy back in I hope to sell some puts with my cash In case you’re being snarky, it’s easy for me to “beat” the market now because I just have to buy back below like 5% off ATH. I also don’t think I can time the market any more, I (and many others actually) just saw a special macro opportunity during the end of the last bull run
- thunky 4y ago
  Yeah that's true, but the closer you get to ATH I would imagine the harder it becomes psychologically to buy back in, because it feels like you're losing on the way up. If you go all in next week then yeah you're all the way there so congrats. If you take your time getting back in then it may work, may not, but good luck either way.

alister 4y ago

> before you buy a bond ETF recognize that it’s not the same as buying a bond. With a bond index you can lose money at mark-to-market that you’d only recoup after decades of interest or if we want back down to lower rates. Sounds super interesting but could you give a layman's explanation please?

phkahler 4y ago
Bonds pay a fixed return. You buy it and there is no question what the return is for the term of the bond. Bond funds on the other hand, buy and sell bonds in an attempt to do better but there is also risk of doing worse. You buy a $1000 bond that pays 2 percent for 5 years. Great, that's what you get. A fund buys the same bond and then interest rates rise, so they sell the bond at a slight loss (vs $1000) so they can invest in something with a better return. It becomes a bit of a game and can lose or gain vs the fixed return of buying and holding actual bonds.
compumike 4y ago
This article may be helpful: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Individual_bonds_vs_a_bond_fund https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Individual_bonds_vs_a_bond_f... Specifically: “Thus, the distinction between a non-rolling ladder (designed to meet date-certain future liabilities) and a rolling ladder (which essentially represents a personal bond fund) is much more important than the difference between a rolling ladder and a bond fund.” A one-off individual bond purchase, held to maturity, would be the simplest example of a “non-rolling ladder”. But even then, the individual bond if marked-to-market (or if you needed to liquidate it before maturity date) would have fluctuating market price. It’s only the intent to hold it to maturity that gives one the ability to choose to ignore the intermediate market price. And if you’re reinvesting it into more bonds (a “rolling ladder”) then you do have to care about market prices at reinvestment time regardless.
nathanasmith 4y ago
You buy a bond from the government for $1000 paying 5% interest and, as long as you keep the bond, you're guaranteed to get that interest money and get your $1000 back when the bond matures. A bond fund has no "maturation date" therefore the only money you get back from it is the current market rate of the bonds in it which could easily go up or down.

fuckHNtho 4y ago

"predicting the future was obvious in the past, but a lot harder in the present." ...really?