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If you are liquid, a good time to pick up some real estate will probably be in about a year's time. Around 2008, a typical property dropped to half its value,

If you are liquid, a good time to pick up some real estate will probably be in about a year's time. Around 2008, a typical property dropped to half its value, then doubled and tripled in the next five-six years. Just buy it and rent it out on a time limited contract while you wait for the property rebound.

rco8786 4y ago
This makes a (pretty huge) assumption that the characteristics of this recession will match the last one. But the underlying fundamentals appear to be very different, so far.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
  ... indeed, to the point where there is still debate about this actually is a recession. NBER, for example, have not yet called it (likely on account of the employment situation, which is very non-recession-like).
  - llampx 4y ago
    The Fed first claimed that there would be no inflation due to their COVID monetary policies and the fiscal policies of the government, then that it would be transitory. https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-keeps-key-rate-near-zero-sees-inflation-as-transitory-2021-4?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-keeps-key-rate-near-zero... Take what theses official mouthpieces say with a pinch of salt, because part of their box of tools is jawboning on TV. Fake it till you make it policymaking.
    - rco8786 4y ago
      This is why my original comment ended with "so far". In any case, we definitively do not have millions of people sitting on ARMs that just went from from 2% to 7% like we saw in '08.
imnotreallynew 4y ago
> If you are liquid, a good time to pick up some real estate will probably be in about a year's time. Why do you say that? There seems to be this idea among younger individuals online that because prices jumped so quickly that a correction is inevitable, and it’s just not. There’s a ton of demand still out there, and the second any sort of meaningful dip is perceived all those buyers will be right there. Prices went up because a shit ton of money was printed with sub-3% rates. Why would any sane person with a 3% mortgage ever sell, especially when inflation is 9%? It’s quite literally free money.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- opportune 4y ago
  Because they died or need to move? Because they have no liquidity? I agree in general that waiting on the sidelines doesn’t guarantee you a better price later. The problem of there being other buyers wanting to scoop dips providing price support would only be fixed by those buyers loosing liquidity, which would likely impact any individual waiting on the sideline too.
- jaxn 4y ago
  Hiring slows, wages go down, remote work becomes less normal, rates go up, prices cool to offset rates, boomers downsizing (pass passing property to heirs) increase supply as part of the largest generational wealth transfer ever… People who stretched to buy at the peak of the market end up upside down, refinancing gets harder, selling takes longer, foreclosure starts… 2008 all over again. May not be likely, but wouldn’t be surprising
- outworlder 4y ago
  > Why would any sane person with a 3% mortgage ever sell Because they can no longer afford their morgage as the economy goes to the gutter and they get laid off + their purchase power gets eroded due to inflation? Or they got a new job, but now they have to relocate? Many reasons.
- RowanH 4y ago

rco8786 4y ago

This makes a (pretty huge) assumption that the characteristics of this recession will match the last one. But the underlying fundamentals appear to be very different, so far.

PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
... indeed, to the point where there is still debate about this actually is a recession. NBER, for example, have not yet called it (likely on account of the employment situation, which is very non-recession-like).
- llampx 4y ago
  The Fed first claimed that there would be no inflation due to their COVID monetary policies and the fiscal policies of the government, then that it would be transitory. https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-keeps-key-rate-near-zero-sees-inflation-as-transitory-2021-4?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-keeps-key-rate-near-zero... Take what theses official mouthpieces say with a pinch of salt, because part of their box of tools is jawboning on TV. Fake it till you make it policymaking.
  - rco8786 4y ago
    This is why my original comment ended with "so far". In any case, we definitively do not have millions of people sitting on ARMs that just went from from 2% to 7% like we saw in '08.

imnotreallynew 4y ago

> If you are liquid, a good time to pick up some real estate will probably be in about a year's time. Why do you say that? There seems to be this idea among younger individuals online that because prices jumped so quickly that a correction is inevitable, and it’s just not. There’s a ton of demand still out there, and the second any sort of meaningful dip is perceived all those buyers will be right there. Prices went up because a shit ton of money was printed with sub-3% rates. Why would any sane person with a 3% mortgage ever sell, especially when inflation is 9%? It’s quite literally free money.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
opportune 4y ago
Because they died or need to move? Because they have no liquidity? I agree in general that waiting on the sidelines doesn’t guarantee you a better price later. The problem of there being other buyers wanting to scoop dips providing price support would only be fixed by those buyers loosing liquidity, which would likely impact any individual waiting on the sideline too.
jaxn 4y ago
Hiring slows, wages go down, remote work becomes less normal, rates go up, prices cool to offset rates, boomers downsizing (pass passing property to heirs) increase supply as part of the largest generational wealth transfer ever… People who stretched to buy at the peak of the market end up upside down, refinancing gets harder, selling takes longer, foreclosure starts… 2008 all over again. May not be likely, but wouldn’t be surprising
outworlder 4y ago
> Why would any sane person with a 3% mortgage ever sell Because they can no longer afford their morgage as the economy goes to the gutter and they get laid off + their purchase power gets eroded due to inflation? Or they got a new job, but now they have to relocate? Many reasons.
RowanH 4y ago