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Unless the Russians are bluffing about using their nukes, they literally can’t lose. They can only fail to win. Nuclear war will also cause hyperinflation, alt

by User23 4y ago

Unless the Russians are bluffing about using their nukes, they literally can’t lose. They can only fail to win. Nuclear war will also cause hyperinflation, although at that point it will probably be academic.

ido 4y ago
For Putin's regime, failing to win is basically losing.
- akmarinov 4y ago
  What’s win though? If his mobilization manages to keep Ukraine forces at bay and he goes through with joining Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhia to Russia - is that the win scenario? He can probably pull that together pretty easily by dumping 1-2 million russians in it. If he stalls things for 2-3 years with the new borders, the West is likely to give up and just have them be another Crimea. NATO certainly won’t send troops in.
  - ido 4y ago
    It's highly suspect if he can mobilise 1-2 millions. The latest mobilisation sought 300k and is already causing civil unrest and hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Russia.
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      Furthermore they can barely equip the current conscripts so unless they are going to use T34s I doubt we will see millions mobilised.
ceejayoz 4y ago
> Unless the Russians are bluffing about using their nukes... Of course they're bluffing. They've made these sorts of threats for decades; "if you let Finland join NATO we'll be super mad!" Giving in to nuclear blackmail just gives the bully the go-ahead to do the same thing again.
- User23 4y ago
  This isn’t a playground we’re talking about. And incidentally it was nuclear blackmail by the USA that ended the Cuban Missile Crisis. It has precedent and a successful track record. And Ukraine is a lot closer to Russia than Cuba is to the USA. Ask yourself what’s worse for Putin: using nukes and declaring victory, or an ignominious defeat and spending the rest of his life in whatever circumstances a deposed Russian leader is likely to get. Are you really so certain he won’t send up the balloon?
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    Grownups learn these dynamics on the playground. > And incidentally it was nuclear blackmail by the USA that ended the Cuban Missile Crisis. The USA wasn't incrementally annexing Russian territory at the time. > Are you really so certain he won’t send up the balloon? Yes. Someone throws him out a window if that order goes out.

by User23 4y ago

ido 4y ago

For Putin's regime, failing to win is basically losing.

akmarinov 4y ago
What’s win though? If his mobilization manages to keep Ukraine forces at bay and he goes through with joining Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhia to Russia - is that the win scenario? He can probably pull that together pretty easily by dumping 1-2 million russians in it. If he stalls things for 2-3 years with the new borders, the West is likely to give up and just have them be another Crimea. NATO certainly won’t send troops in.
- ido 4y ago
  It's highly suspect if he can mobilise 1-2 millions. The latest mobilisation sought 300k and is already causing civil unrest and hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Russia.
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    Furthermore they can barely equip the current conscripts so unless they are going to use T34s I doubt we will see millions mobilised.

ceejayoz 4y ago

> Unless the Russians are bluffing about using their nukes... Of course they're bluffing. They've made these sorts of threats for decades; "if you let Finland join NATO we'll be super mad!" Giving in to nuclear blackmail just gives the bully the go-ahead to do the same thing again.

User23 4y ago
This isn’t a playground we’re talking about. And incidentally it was nuclear blackmail by the USA that ended the Cuban Missile Crisis. It has precedent and a successful track record. And Ukraine is a lot closer to Russia than Cuba is to the USA. Ask yourself what’s worse for Putin: using nukes and declaring victory, or an ignominious defeat and spending the rest of his life in whatever circumstances a deposed Russian leader is likely to get. Are you really so certain he won’t send up the balloon?
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Grownups learn these dynamics on the playground. > And incidentally it was nuclear blackmail by the USA that ended the Cuban Missile Crisis. The USA wasn't incrementally annexing Russian territory at the time. > Are you really so certain he won’t send up the balloon? Yes. Someone throws him out a window if that order goes out.