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These two pipelines have very different operational histories so the simultaneous formation of a 'methane hydrate plug' in both pipelines seems highly unlikely
by photochemsyn 4y ago
These two pipelines have very different operational histories so the simultaneous formation of a 'methane hydrate plug' in both pipelines seems highly unlikely at best. There's also no apparent reason why such a methane hydrate plug should cause seismic-scale explosions in both pipelines.
As far as motivation, the US agenda on Europe's fossil fuel market since at least 2008 has been to lock out Russian suppliers (who don't bank their oil profits with Wall Street) in favor of American and Middle Eastern importers (those who do bank their funds appropriately, i.e. Qatar/Saudi/Kuwait/UAE good, Iran bad). This has gained extra impetus since the fracking boom and the rise in production in the USA, leading to pushes to open up export markets.
Now, would Russia want to blow up its own pipelines when it can simply shut them down for 'maintenance' until sanctions are lifted if it wanted to cut off the flow of gas? That's a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. This leaves the USA as the one with the obvious motive to do this.
I personally think Europe would have been better off pushing rapid renewable development for the past few decades, which it has to some extent, but a more concentrated effort over the past few decades would have put them in a position where their economies were not dependent on either the USA or Russia.
[edit: relevant quote - "There are many ways to light Europe" - from the movie, Syriana]
- raverbashing 4y ago> Now, would Russia want to blow up its own pipelines when it can simply shut them down for 'maintenance' Because they can break the contracts due to "force-majeure" clauses, which shutting down won't let them do
- valuearb 4y agoSince when has Putin cared about contracts?
- llampx 4y agoThis explanation doesn't clarify why Putin wouldn't blow up the pipelines in July, before telling Europe that they won't deliver gas as long as Europe applies sanctions on Russia. By doing that, Putin already broke any contracts.
- bombcar 4y agoBoth the US and Russia could have factions that benefit from Germany being unable to turn the gas back on. Factions in Germany, too. Whomever did it (and US and Russia are NOT the only actors capable) the clear result is these pipelines are no longer operational and there is very little political will anywhere to rebuild them.
- valuearb 4y agoSabotaging these pipelines would be bad news for Putin, removing his leverage this winter to try to reduce support for Ukraine. Biden getting caught sabotaging this pipeline would destroy the critical European coalitions he spent so much time building.
- mistrial9 4y agoIMHO there are two big motivations it seems -- one is that some sub-group that is not doing well right now, might advance their position with the act of war; or some sub-group stands to make a lot of money quickly, with this act of war. It is hard to believe that top-level commanders on any side, would act directly .. in other words, no one that is doing well right now, would pull this trigger.. when you look at the person making the statements, look behind them to the left and the right, to see the actual suspects.
- regularfry 4y agoYou're underestimating the sensitivity of seismic sensors. Bear in mind that they picked up not only the initial rupture, but also the noise of the escaping gas after the fact. I've been firmly in camp incompetence-before-malice since they went pop; the 17 hour gap just doesn't feel right for an intentional attack. Shoddy maintenance causing catastrophic failure by some mechanism even if it's not hydrate plugs makes at least as much sense to me as geopolitical tomfoolery.
- MichaelCollins 4y ago> the 17 hour gap just doesn't feel right for an intentional attack Why? 17 hours is enough time to figure out what happened, but not enough time to prevent it from happening again. If the attacks were calculated to have a psychological impact on political leadership, 17 hours or so sounds about right to me. And keep in mind, the bombs might have been planted months ago. 17 hours isn't enough time to inspect the whole pipe for more bombs.
- ethagknight 4y agoRegarding your comment of unlikely simultaneous formation of plugs, the thinking would be that Russian interests were attempting to test or clean or prep both lines.