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The fact that the model did not account for what actually happened as possible IS a problem in the risk model. Pension funds are supposed to run for decades.
by btilly 4y ago
The fact that the model did not account for what actually happened as possible IS a problem in the risk model.
Pension funds are supposed to run for decades. Looking at the last 12 decades, I see many financial crises, a run on the pound, the Great Depression, a couple of world wars and so on. All of which were unthinkable until they happened. Any risk model meant to cover long periods should account for the possibility of similarly extreme events happening in the future, at roughly the historical frequency.
But you're telling me that those who modeled the risk failed to give this ANY consideration at all?? And then you say that you think that this oversight is not an error??
I'm going to have to very emphatically disagree!