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New polling out of the UK is truly astonishing. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/29/voting-intention-con-21-lab-54-28-29-sep-2022

New polling out of the UK is truly astonishing. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/29/voting-intention-con-21-lab-54-28-29-sep-2022 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/0...

lamontcg 4y ago
Is there any way to force a vote before Jan 2025?
- switch007 4y ago
  Vote of no confidence from the leader of the opposition (Labour) I believe. Also the budget bill is seen as a confidence vote. That would be interesting because if it doesn’t pass. That would require a lot of Tory MPs to rebel
  - shapefrog 4y ago
    Edit: totally missed the repeal - so this is no longer the situation. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which has governed how UK Parliamentary elections are called since 2011, an election could only be triggered outside of the normal five-year Parliamentary cycle by one of two scenarios: if two-thirds of the House of Commons voted in favour of one, or if the Government lost a vote of no confidence and no alternative government was confirmed by the House of Commons within 14 days. 2/3 vote in house is basically the only way it can happen.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      Since either a no confidence vote without a new government (simple majority without a replacement government getting one) or a 2/3 vote would require a rebellion within the Tories, and the former would require fewer rebels, wouldn’t it necessarily be more plausible than a 2/3 vote.
      - shapefrog 4y ago
        I had missed the repeal, so these are academic now, however, were relevant back in the day, and were interesting in coalition times. Voting no confidence path would allow the government to attempt to form another government (with a more unifying leader perhaps?) where there would be another round of votes / haggling till the 14 day limit to carry the confidence of the house. Getting the rebels to vote against the government multiple times over 2 weeks (they would be expelled from the party for the forthcoming election anyway) is extremely hard. Getting 2/3s to vote against, while requiring more rebels, is politically probably easier, if a smallish minority have infected the party and are acting against the party core, and the opposition are dire. You can probably carry your safe seat and oust the toxic HQ leadership at the same time. Both paths are effectively impossible. The idea back in the day was that you would just vote to repeal or amend the act, as it was easier than actually fullfilling the criteria of the act.
    - shellac 4y ago
      That act was repealed this year. It is “as if the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 had never been enacted”. Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_and_Calling_of_Parliament_Act_2022 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_and_Calling_of_Par...
      - shapefrog 4y ago
        Many thanks - totally missed that repeal. I am trying to figure out what replaced it, and it appears the only way is for an election to occur is a) the Prime Minister to request and recieve consent from the Monarch, b) it has been 5 years since the last election.
        gpderetta 4y ago
        c) the parliament decides to have an election.
        shapefrog 4y ago
        2019 as prior art required full passage through commons and lords. Without compliance of the governement getting a bill read is not going to necessarily be easy.
        yrro 4y ago
        I'd like to know if other constitutional norms have been restored as well (e.g., are supply bills & major manifesto bills automatically considered confidence votes?)
    - gpderetta 4y ago
      As far as I understand, the act prevents the prime minister from dissolving the parliament unilaterally, but in practice the parliament still only need a simple majority, by just passing a law stating 'notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliament Act, the parliament is dissolved'. This happened in 2019 ([1], [2]). Or it could have just repelled the act, which is what happened this year. This can happen when there is no entrenched constitution and the parliament has complete freedom to legislate. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011#Circumvention_in_the_2019_general_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_201... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_El...
  - shellac 4y ago
    > That would require a lot of Tory MPs to rebel Yes, it’s practically impossible currently given both the size of their majority, and also the clear indications that a large number of Tory MPs would be personally voting themselves out of a job. (The current polling may well be underestimating the scale of the defeat) It’s more likely that the Prime Minister will be kicked out.
    - willyt 4y ago
      But all those 'Red Wall' Tory MPs representing poor Northern constituencies are going to lose their jobs either way at this rate. They might calculate that they stand more chance of being reinstated under Rishi Sunak (or whoever) than they would of winning their seats again at the next election under Liz Truss. I don't think the Tories as a whole can let Truss carry on for many more days though as they are burning credibility faster than an Saturn rocket burns fuel. The country hasn't had an even vaguely competent leader since Cameron, this has mostly been ignored by people as they have been able to go about their daily lives as normal but the current shambles is affecting peoples finances across the spectrum and people are waking up to the fact that the Tories have dropped the ball.
- malermeister 4y ago
  The King could dissolve parliament.
  - lamontcg 4y ago
    I entirely forgot about King Charles III: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6253522/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6253522/
  - m_a_g 4y ago
    I thought the King can only dissolve the government.
    - nirimda 4y ago
      The King doesn't dissolve the government. The King can dissolve parliament and dismiss the government. If the King dissolves parliament, the people have to elect a new one. If the King dismisses the government, the King must immediately appoint a new one.
  - yrro 4y ago
    Doing so without being advised to by the PM would trigger a major constitutional crisis.

lamontcg 4y ago

Is there any way to force a vote before Jan 2025?

switch007 4y ago
Vote of no confidence from the leader of the opposition (Labour) I believe. Also the budget bill is seen as a confidence vote. That would be interesting because if it doesn’t pass. That would require a lot of Tory MPs to rebel
- shapefrog 4y ago
  Edit: totally missed the repeal - so this is no longer the situation. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which has governed how UK Parliamentary elections are called since 2011, an election could only be triggered outside of the normal five-year Parliamentary cycle by one of two scenarios: if two-thirds of the House of Commons voted in favour of one, or if the Government lost a vote of no confidence and no alternative government was confirmed by the House of Commons within 14 days. 2/3 vote in house is basically the only way it can happen.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    Since either a no confidence vote without a new government (simple majority without a replacement government getting one) or a 2/3 vote would require a rebellion within the Tories, and the former would require fewer rebels, wouldn’t it necessarily be more plausible than a 2/3 vote.
    - shapefrog 4y ago
      I had missed the repeal, so these are academic now, however, were relevant back in the day, and were interesting in coalition times. Voting no confidence path would allow the government to attempt to form another government (with a more unifying leader perhaps?) where there would be another round of votes / haggling till the 14 day limit to carry the confidence of the house. Getting the rebels to vote against the government multiple times over 2 weeks (they would be expelled from the party for the forthcoming election anyway) is extremely hard. Getting 2/3s to vote against, while requiring more rebels, is politically probably easier, if a smallish minority have infected the party and are acting against the party core, and the opposition are dire. You can probably carry your safe seat and oust the toxic HQ leadership at the same time. Both paths are effectively impossible. The idea back in the day was that you would just vote to repeal or amend the act, as it was easier than actually fullfilling the criteria of the act.
  - shellac 4y ago
    That act was repealed this year. It is “as if the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 had never been enacted”. Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_and_Calling_of_Parliament_Act_2022 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_and_Calling_of_Par...
    - shapefrog 4y ago
      Many thanks - totally missed that repeal. I am trying to figure out what replaced it, and it appears the only way is for an election to occur is a) the Prime Minister to request and recieve consent from the Monarch, b) it has been 5 years since the last election.
      - gpderetta 4y ago
        c) the parliament decides to have an election.
        shapefrog 4y ago
        2019 as prior art required full passage through commons and lords. Without compliance of the governement getting a bill read is not going to necessarily be easy.
      - yrro 4y ago
        I'd like to know if other constitutional norms have been restored as well (e.g., are supply bills & major manifesto bills automatically considered confidence votes?)
  - gpderetta 4y ago
    As far as I understand, the act prevents the prime minister from dissolving the parliament unilaterally, but in practice the parliament still only need a simple majority, by just passing a law stating 'notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliament Act, the parliament is dissolved'. This happened in 2019 ([1], [2]). Or it could have just repelled the act, which is what happened this year. This can happen when there is no entrenched constitution and the parliament has complete freedom to legislate. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011#Circumvention_in_the_2019_general_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_201... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_El...
- shellac 4y ago
  > That would require a lot of Tory MPs to rebel Yes, it’s practically impossible currently given both the size of their majority, and also the clear indications that a large number of Tory MPs would be personally voting themselves out of a job. (The current polling may well be underestimating the scale of the defeat) It’s more likely that the Prime Minister will be kicked out.
  - willyt 4y ago
    But all those 'Red Wall' Tory MPs representing poor Northern constituencies are going to lose their jobs either way at this rate. They might calculate that they stand more chance of being reinstated under Rishi Sunak (or whoever) than they would of winning their seats again at the next election under Liz Truss. I don't think the Tories as a whole can let Truss carry on for many more days though as they are burning credibility faster than an Saturn rocket burns fuel. The country hasn't had an even vaguely competent leader since Cameron, this has mostly been ignored by people as they have been able to go about their daily lives as normal but the current shambles is affecting peoples finances across the spectrum and people are waking up to the fact that the Tories have dropped the ball.
malermeister 4y ago
The King could dissolve parliament.
- lamontcg 4y ago
  I entirely forgot about King Charles III: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6253522/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6253522/
- m_a_g 4y ago
  I thought the King can only dissolve the government.
  - nirimda 4y ago
    The King doesn't dissolve the government. The King can dissolve parliament and dismiss the government. If the King dissolves parliament, the people have to elect a new one. If the King dismisses the government, the King must immediately appoint a new one.
- yrro 4y ago
  Doing so without being advised to by the PM would trigger a major constitutional crisis.