History is a poor predictor because there is no history. History is a tool. For instance, what is the real reason for the current crisis? There is a lot of exp

History is a poor predictor because there is no history. History is a tool. For instance, what is the real reason for the current crisis? There is a lot of explanations: goverenment (cheap money, urging to lend to poor), capitalism (complex derivates, greed), poor models (Blackswan), empty money (gold bugs). The same goes with attemps to solve the current crisis. There are too many ideas to count. How do you expect better explanations of the past, if you hardly understand the events going on right now? Of course, the idea is that history was explained better and we can learn from it; the truth is that you end up with explaining reality with previous bad explanations, and your bad explanations will be used later...