5 ms·

"large portions of the residents were forced out by the war, especially the residents inclined towards Ukraine" This is the first sensible answer to a question

"large portions of the residents were forced out by the war, especially the residents inclined towards Ukraine" This is the first sensible answer to a question I asked elsewhere (only to be down-voted for asking a question) about why the insistence on the referendums being a sham. Much of the Ukraine-inclined population fled. Much of the Russia-inclined remained. So the post-invasion vote is heavily pro-Russian.

wrp 4y ago
While the explanation is relevant to this recent election, it doesn't apply to the earlier referendums which have all been denounced as illegitimate by Kyiv and the West. The first (but not only) referendums for independence from Kyiv were in 1991 in Crimea and 2014 in Donbas.
- geomark 4y ago
  What were the voting results in those prior referendums?
  - wrp 4y ago
    Politics in eastern Ukraine was messy even before the breakup of the USSR, and nobody was an objective observer, so take everything with a grain of salt. 20 January 1991: Crimea 93.6% to join Russia 16 March 2014: Crimea 96.77% for independence May 2014: Donetsk 89% for autonomy May 2014: Lugansk 96% for autonomy I pulled these numbers from a new book[1], which is in French, but there is already a rough English translation floating around. It is well footnoted with URLs. [1] https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYWFEAAAQBAJ https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW...
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      > I pulled these numbers from a new book[1], which is in French, but there is already a rough English translation floating around. It is well footnoted with URLs. [1] https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW... Jacques Baud who wrote that book which you used for the numbers has a history of pushing pro kremlin points and has been on Russian state TV in the past. I wouldn’t consider him reliable on this topic. If you want to read a good article on Jacques baud the following is a good analysis. https://dailysceptic.org/archive/how-accurate-is-jacques-bauds-analysis-of-the-war-in-ukraine/ https://dailysceptic.org/archive/how-accurate-is-jacques-bau...
      - wrp 4y ago
        Baud didn't invent those numbers I quoted. I could have cited a different book, but this was at hand. I'm well aware of Baud's writings and his military career. I do have issues with his intellectual honesty, but I think he is in no sense a mouthpiece of Moscow. His driving motivation seems to be not pro-Russia, but anti-USA, which is not so unusual for a Frenchman (Swiss). That article you linked is itself rather dishonest, raising issues and then sidestepping Baud's version of the story.
- simplyaccont 4y ago
  with regards to 1991 referendum in crimea, i pretty sure that according to local laws it was kind of unlawful. same applies to 2014 (in which you don't even know what was the turnout and people who were against were disappearing to be found dead later). you can kinda say that crimea 1991 referendum maybe had a chance on been kinda legal because it was autonomous republic inside Ukraine, but what happens in Donbas is similar to this https://ktla.com/news/nexstar-media-wire/nationworld/more-oregon-counties-vote-to-secede-and-become-part-of-greater-idaho/ https://ktla.com/news/nexstar-media-wire/nationworld/more-or... . You just need to add an armored company from Idaho taking over counties/sheriff department and then holding a votes to see absurdity of the situation
michaelmrose 4y ago
The reason you haven't got a good answer is quite frankly this question doesn't actually deserve an answer. If you were my friend asking it would be sufficient alone for me to stop speaking to you. My visceral reaction is to suppose it is inherently insincere. It's like when someone asks if the holocaust actually happened. Then I remember that even late in the game not everyone has been following the news and thus I will answer it more completely. Years ago Russian began supplying guns tanks and soldiers to local thugs on the idea that if they betrayed their own countrymen they could have their own Russia supported fiefdom in their part of Ukraine. About 8 years were spent with the region as an active war zone with those who were opposed to the idea fleeing to regions that were not then besieged. As the full scale invasion began the Russians began purging wrong thinking folks setting up filtration aka concentration camps to torture and murder those deemed disloyal or to be possessed of actionable intel. So the people that outright shot your 2 of your 5 brothers, tortured the rest, raped your sister and mother show up at your door with guns and tell you that you really ought to vote to join Russia. Meanwhile your brothers with bullets in their heads don't get to vote nor do the 17 members of your extended family that were smart enough to flee and you fear that if you vote the wrong way if they don't outright shoot you right now they might hold it against your cousin who is still in a Russian concentration camp and start cutting on him some more. Meanwhile if you and all your countrymen stand up and vote against the fourth reich the Russian government is still free to report whatever results they please.

wrp 4y ago

While the explanation is relevant to this recent election, it doesn't apply to the earlier referendums which have all been denounced as illegitimate by Kyiv and the West. The first (but not only) referendums for independence from Kyiv were in 1991 in Crimea and 2014 in Donbas.

geomark 4y ago
What were the voting results in those prior referendums?
- wrp 4y ago
  Politics in eastern Ukraine was messy even before the breakup of the USSR, and nobody was an objective observer, so take everything with a grain of salt. 20 January 1991: Crimea 93.6% to join Russia 16 March 2014: Crimea 96.77% for independence May 2014: Donetsk 89% for autonomy May 2014: Lugansk 96% for autonomy I pulled these numbers from a new book[1], which is in French, but there is already a rough English translation floating around. It is well footnoted with URLs. [1] https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYWFEAAAQBAJ https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW...
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    > I pulled these numbers from a new book[1], which is in French, but there is already a rough English translation floating around. It is well footnoted with URLs. [1] https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW... Jacques Baud who wrote that book which you used for the numbers has a history of pushing pro kremlin points and has been on Russian state TV in the past. I wouldn’t consider him reliable on this topic. If you want to read a good article on Jacques baud the following is a good analysis. https://dailysceptic.org/archive/how-accurate-is-jacques-bauds-analysis-of-the-war-in-ukraine/ https://dailysceptic.org/archive/how-accurate-is-jacques-bau...
    - wrp 4y ago
      Baud didn't invent those numbers I quoted. I could have cited a different book, but this was at hand. I'm well aware of Baud's writings and his military career. I do have issues with his intellectual honesty, but I think he is in no sense a mouthpiece of Moscow. His driving motivation seems to be not pro-Russia, but anti-USA, which is not so unusual for a Frenchman (Swiss). That article you linked is itself rather dishonest, raising issues and then sidestepping Baud's version of the story.
simplyaccont 4y ago
with regards to 1991 referendum in crimea, i pretty sure that according to local laws it was kind of unlawful. same applies to 2014 (in which you don't even know what was the turnout and people who were against were disappearing to be found dead later). you can kinda say that crimea 1991 referendum maybe had a chance on been kinda legal because it was autonomous republic inside Ukraine, but what happens in Donbas is similar to this https://ktla.com/news/nexstar-media-wire/nationworld/more-oregon-counties-vote-to-secede-and-become-part-of-greater-idaho/ https://ktla.com/news/nexstar-media-wire/nationworld/more-or... . You just need to add an armored company from Idaho taking over counties/sheriff department and then holding a votes to see absurdity of the situation

michaelmrose 4y ago

The reason you haven't got a good answer is quite frankly this question doesn't actually deserve an answer. If you were my friend asking it would be sufficient alone for me to stop speaking to you. My visceral reaction is to suppose it is inherently insincere. It's like when someone asks if the holocaust actually happened. Then I remember that even late in the game not everyone has been following the news and thus I will answer it more completely. Years ago Russian began supplying guns tanks and soldiers to local thugs on the idea that if they betrayed their own countrymen they could have their own Russia supported fiefdom in their part of Ukraine. About 8 years were spent with the region as an active war zone with those who were opposed to the idea fleeing to regions that were not then besieged. As the full scale invasion began the Russians began purging wrong thinking folks setting up filtration aka concentration camps to torture and murder those deemed disloyal or to be possessed of actionable intel. So the people that outright shot your 2 of your 5 brothers, tortured the rest, raped your sister and mother show up at your door with guns and tell you that you really ought to vote to join Russia. Meanwhile your brothers with bullets in their heads don't get to vote nor do the 17 members of your extended family that were smart enough to flee and you fear that if you vote the wrong way if they don't outright shoot you right now they might hold it against your cousin who is still in a Russian concentration camp and start cutting on him some more. Meanwhile if you and all your countrymen stand up and vote against the fourth reich the Russian government is still free to report whatever results they please.