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China doesn't have another generation. They'll be going into a very stark population collapse that's worse than what Japan is experiencing now, where adult diap

by eloff 4y ago

China doesn't have another generation. They'll be going into a very stark population collapse that's worse than what Japan is experiencing now, where adult diapers outsell baby diapers. I expect that China's economy and influence will take the shape of an upside-down U, with the peak in the next decade. If they're going to move on Taiwan, they cannot wait forever. They came close to catching up the US, but I don't think they will achieve it.

mvuksano 4y ago
Is there any other country that ever showed anything other then upside-down U in terms of economy strength and influence. To best of my knowledge every country, empire or society rises and eventually falls. Probably the best known example is Roman empire but every other society I can think of exhibits same pattern.
- gwbas1c 4y ago
  That's one of the core points of https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed-ebook/dp/B0881Y73YG/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=the+changing+world+order&qid=1664484094&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIxLjc5IiwicXNhIjoiMS4yNiIsInFzcCI6IjEuNDgifQ%3D%3D&sr=8-1 https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed-...
- kiba 4y ago
  Recorded history is only a few thousand years, and things changed significantly, especially in the modern era. Don't be so sure that everything follows the patterns of the past. But, we best not remain complacent.
- eloff 4y ago
  Hah, good point! In the case of China they're likely to peak soon. The USA might peak much later still. The Roman empire lasted over 1000 years. I have my doubts the US can go the distance, but let's see.
  - stormbrew 4y ago
    > The Roman empire lasted over 1000 years. Treating all the things that were called "The Roman Empire" as one thing is a pretty big stretch. Modern nations have much more rigid and well-defined natures.
- aetherson 4y ago
  There's a big difference between "eventually country X will fall," and "country X will start to decline in the next decade."
dirtyid 4y ago
China has multiple generations. Even "stark" demographic collapse at PRC scale is generating millions of new births per year (several times greater than US even with immigration), there will never be shortage of bodies to fill the military, especially increasingly small force structure of modern militaries that's shifting towards autonomous platforms. As for economy, expect PRC to continue growing, more importantly, move up tech/value chain and build comprehensive national power, just like Japan did while her demographic was absolutely in the shits because JP managed to massively improve human capita via education to create the skilled workers for high value economy (also SKR, TW). For reference PRC is now outputting as much STEM talent as all OECD combined. Like other the Asian Tigers with death spiral demographics still grew significantly simply because cohort of skilled workers increased massively even though demographics broadly declined. There's a reason PRC is rapidly moving up science and innovation indexes (controlled for quality, not just citations). The reality is, PRC demographics has never been MORE competitive, and will increasingly be, because advanced economic development phase is just getting started. Quantity of quality is in human capital is increasing at stupendous pace. Now add in PRC is adopting as much industrial robots / automation than the next 15 countries combined and that overall demographic decline (as in net population decline) only improves PRC strategic position by reducing import dependence. And that the massive regional income disparity + huge home ownership + enviable house hold savings rate = PRC elderly simply don't have significant expection (or need) for old age social support. In many ways, PRC is almost optimized for weathering demographic bomb with less social cost relative to properly developed countries that are seeing comparable demographic decline.
- eloff 4y ago
  Japan's economy has been stagnant for the last thirty years[1]. China can look forward to worse by all indications so far. Upskilling their labor force won't fix that. It didn't save Japan. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-growth-r...
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    >labor force won't fix Not for JP because their skillforce potential was already relatively maxed out, their education reform paid off late in 70s while domestic politics squandered female labour participation. JP stagnanted after it tapped out demographic divident of educated/skilled work force in 80s - JP didn't have enough people / demand to upgrade what she had left to push further. Ultimately she settled in fairly prosperous status quo, but as medium sized country, also did not have sufficient internal market or requisite talent to compete across every sector. VS PRC's recent skilled demographic explosion form 00s academic / S&T / R&D reforms that have not been fully exploited, which is the critical cohort that will build national strength. PRC has internal markets and talent pool to compete in every sector and will move up value chain accordingly. Ultimately just due to sheer amount of people, huge % of whom are lost cause, PRC will settle somewhere below JP, but still significantly higher than where it is now, likely much than US in gross/real ppp terms. Another important dynamic is PRC moving up value chain across all sectors will chip away at western economic primacy. PRC's skills driven growth trend will be slower relative to historic performance of other Tigers because even world demand was not enough to uplift 1.4B people. But that slower growth will start to directly challenge / eat lunch in sectors wealthy west dominantes. PRC may grow slow, but it merely growing will ensure west grows SLOWER if not regress. One should expect PRC economy to grow slower and stagnate in 20-30 years, but will pull head of US, substantively in real GDP / PPP terms. All while moving up the up value chain, increasing comprehensive national power, and simulatenously erode western economies growth potential. Antcipate a future where every $1 growth in PRC hightech exports takes away 2% from west. Expect PRC industrial/trade policy sell at -$1 loss to cost west $4. JP as US vassel post war did not have the political freedom to play that game, it got Plaza'ed instead.
ChuckNorris89 4y ago
>They'll be going into a very stark population collapse that's worse than what Japan is experiencing now, where adult diapers outsell baby diapers. As opposed to most of Europe ... Also, the quality of your human capital is more important than just having a large unsustainable population growth without much marketable skills or know-how on the international scale. Otherwise parts of Africa and Asia would be economic super powers by now.
- eloff 4y ago
  Europe doesn't have a population collapse. They make up the difference with immigration, as does Canada and the US. Japan and China do not.
  - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
    Most immigration to Europe is incredibly low-bar unskilled economic chancers interested in exploiting the welfare state, not skilled workers, doctors and engineers like you get in US and Canada which have stricter immigration policies.
    - tsimionescu 4y ago
      That is patently false. Especially the Western and Northern EU countries have a massive influx of high-skill workers (doctors, programmers, engineers) from both Eastern EU countries (which will dry up sooner rather than later, to be fair, with terrible population growth already happening for more than a decade in places like Romania), but also from neighboring countries - Turkey being the largest source. Even the so hated "refugee crisis" from Syria saw mostly middle-class Syrians moving to Europe (putting it in fear quotes since the whole of the EU had fewer refugees than Turkey alone to accept).
      - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        >Especially the Western and Northern EU countries have a massive influx of high-skill workers (doctors, programmers, engineers) from both Eastern EU countries That's mostly false. I haven't met a single programmer from Romania in Austria or any dev from turkey who wishes to emigrate here. Non-EU skilled people I met all want to move to low tax high salary places like Switzerland, UK, Netherlands. Having an open borders immigration policy is discouraging for those with skills who can afford to shop around for the better option vs economic refugees who shop around for the country with the most welfare. If I look at the immigration statistics here, most immigrants are refugees from Africa, Middle East, and East Asia, not doctors and engineers with visas, those are only a tiny minority of the total immigration.

by eloff 4y ago

mvuksano 4y ago

Is there any other country that ever showed anything other then upside-down U in terms of economy strength and influence. To best of my knowledge every country, empire or society rises and eventually falls. Probably the best known example is Roman empire but every other society I can think of exhibits same pattern.

gwbas1c 4y ago
That's one of the core points of https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed-ebook/dp/B0881Y73YG/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=the+changing+world+order&qid=1664484094&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIxLjc5IiwicXNhIjoiMS4yNiIsInFzcCI6IjEuNDgifQ%3D%3D&sr=8-1 https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed-...
kiba 4y ago
Recorded history is only a few thousand years, and things changed significantly, especially in the modern era. Don't be so sure that everything follows the patterns of the past. But, we best not remain complacent.
eloff 4y ago
Hah, good point! In the case of China they're likely to peak soon. The USA might peak much later still. The Roman empire lasted over 1000 years. I have my doubts the US can go the distance, but let's see.
- stormbrew 4y ago
  > The Roman empire lasted over 1000 years. Treating all the things that were called "The Roman Empire" as one thing is a pretty big stretch. Modern nations have much more rigid and well-defined natures.
aetherson 4y ago
There's a big difference between "eventually country X will fall," and "country X will start to decline in the next decade."

dirtyid 4y ago

China has multiple generations. Even "stark" demographic collapse at PRC scale is generating millions of new births per year (several times greater than US even with immigration), there will never be shortage of bodies to fill the military, especially increasingly small force structure of modern militaries that's shifting towards autonomous platforms. As for economy, expect PRC to continue growing, more importantly, move up tech/value chain and build comprehensive national power, just like Japan did while her demographic was absolutely in the shits because JP managed to massively improve human capita via education to create the skilled workers for high value economy (also SKR, TW). For reference PRC is now outputting as much STEM talent as all OECD combined. Like other the Asian Tigers with death spiral demographics still grew significantly simply because cohort of skilled workers increased massively even though demographics broadly declined. There's a reason PRC is rapidly moving up science and innovation indexes (controlled for quality, not just citations). The reality is, PRC demographics has never been MORE competitive, and will increasingly be, because advanced economic development phase is just getting started. Quantity of quality is in human capital is increasing at stupendous pace. Now add in PRC is adopting as much industrial robots / automation than the next 15 countries combined and that overall demographic decline (as in net population decline) only improves PRC strategic position by reducing import dependence. And that the massive regional income disparity + huge home ownership + enviable house hold savings rate = PRC elderly simply don't have significant expection (or need) for old age social support. In many ways, PRC is almost optimized for weathering demographic bomb with less social cost relative to properly developed countries that are seeing comparable demographic decline.

eloff 4y ago
Japan's economy has been stagnant for the last thirty years[1]. China can look forward to worse by all indications so far. Upskilling their labor force won't fix that. It didn't save Japan. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/gdp-growth-r...
- dirtyid 4y ago
  >labor force won't fix Not for JP because their skillforce potential was already relatively maxed out, their education reform paid off late in 70s while domestic politics squandered female labour participation. JP stagnanted after it tapped out demographic divident of educated/skilled work force in 80s - JP didn't have enough people / demand to upgrade what she had left to push further. Ultimately she settled in fairly prosperous status quo, but as medium sized country, also did not have sufficient internal market or requisite talent to compete across every sector. VS PRC's recent skilled demographic explosion form 00s academic / S&T / R&D reforms that have not been fully exploited, which is the critical cohort that will build national strength. PRC has internal markets and talent pool to compete in every sector and will move up value chain accordingly. Ultimately just due to sheer amount of people, huge % of whom are lost cause, PRC will settle somewhere below JP, but still significantly higher than where it is now, likely much than US in gross/real ppp terms. Another important dynamic is PRC moving up value chain across all sectors will chip away at western economic primacy. PRC's skills driven growth trend will be slower relative to historic performance of other Tigers because even world demand was not enough to uplift 1.4B people. But that slower growth will start to directly challenge / eat lunch in sectors wealthy west dominantes. PRC may grow slow, but it merely growing will ensure west grows SLOWER if not regress. One should expect PRC economy to grow slower and stagnate in 20-30 years, but will pull head of US, substantively in real GDP / PPP terms. All while moving up the up value chain, increasing comprehensive national power, and simulatenously erode western economies growth potential. Antcipate a future where every $1 growth in PRC hightech exports takes away 2% from west. Expect PRC industrial/trade policy sell at -$1 loss to cost west $4. JP as US vassel post war did not have the political freedom to play that game, it got Plaza'ed instead.

ChuckNorris89 4y ago

>They'll be going into a very stark population collapse that's worse than what Japan is experiencing now, where adult diapers outsell baby diapers. As opposed to most of Europe ... Also, the quality of your human capital is more important than just having a large unsustainable population growth without much marketable skills or know-how on the international scale. Otherwise parts of Africa and Asia would be economic super powers by now.

eloff 4y ago
Europe doesn't have a population collapse. They make up the difference with immigration, as does Canada and the US. Japan and China do not.
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  Most immigration to Europe is incredibly low-bar unskilled economic chancers interested in exploiting the welfare state, not skilled workers, doctors and engineers like you get in US and Canada which have stricter immigration policies.
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    That is patently false. Especially the Western and Northern EU countries have a massive influx of high-skill workers (doctors, programmers, engineers) from both Eastern EU countries (which will dry up sooner rather than later, to be fair, with terrible population growth already happening for more than a decade in places like Romania), but also from neighboring countries - Turkey being the largest source. Even the so hated "refugee crisis" from Syria saw mostly middle-class Syrians moving to Europe (putting it in fear quotes since the whole of the EU had fewer refugees than Turkey alone to accept).
    - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
      >Especially the Western and Northern EU countries have a massive influx of high-skill workers (doctors, programmers, engineers) from both Eastern EU countries That's mostly false. I haven't met a single programmer from Romania in Austria or any dev from turkey who wishes to emigrate here. Non-EU skilled people I met all want to move to low tax high salary places like Switzerland, UK, Netherlands. Having an open borders immigration policy is discouraging for those with skills who can afford to shop around for the better option vs economic refugees who shop around for the country with the most welfare. If I look at the immigration statistics here, most immigrants are refugees from Africa, Middle East, and East Asia, not doctors and engineers with visas, those are only a tiny minority of the total immigration.