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> I fail to understand how this can be considered an optimal strategy. Aye, I mean it doesn't even pass the sniff test to me. If all actors are a) informed of
by riversflow 4y ago
> I fail to understand how this can be considered an optimal strategy.
Aye, I mean it doesn't even pass the sniff test to me.
If all actors are a) informed of the number of participants and b) are trying to win in earnest, I can not understand why a rational actor would ever pick a number larger than the number of participants. It seems an obviously bad strategy that's an artifact of infinite calculus.
Really though, I think using tools made for real numbers are a bad fit for a problem firmly bounded to natural numbers. I haven't formally studied game theory, but it's my impression this is the exact type of problem it's designed for, and discrete games are a significantly studied subject.
My intuition is there is no reason to ever pick a number greater than participants-1. I feel weird saying that, because everyone, you included, keeps bounding on 1-10 and not 1-n, and I don't have a lot of the formal math training that is fairly ubiquitous here, especially in this thread I would assume. I'd be interested to see the way the distributions play out when one of the Agents randomly select 1 or 2, might have to code this up, but I'm trying to resist the urge to jump down a rabbit hole. I definitely think that "everyone is using the same strategy" is a special case of the question, not a generalized solution.
My thinking is: in any case where you would pick 3+, why wouldn't you pick 1 or 2?
- rawling 4y ago> I can not understand why a rational actor would ever pick a number larger than the number of participants. If there are two of you and you're both always picking 1 or 2, you're going to both lose half the time when you collide. You'll win 1/4 of the time. If you instead pick from 1-3 you're only going to collide 1/3 of the time, and you'll win 1/3 of the time. 1-4, 1/4 collision, 3/8 win rate. (I think I've got the maths right, based on picking numbers uniformly.) If you accept this is logical but decide to actually only ever pick 1 or 2, your logical opponent will surely decide the same and you'll both be worse off.
- xnorswap 4y agoIf there's two of you then you are even better off just always picking 1. You either win, or tie, depending on your opponent's strategy. Your opponent can never win. That seems extremely optimal.