5 ms·

A long time. Much like self-driving cars, AI can take you 90% of the way there, but the last 10% is the difference between music that sort-of-seems-competent, a

by mjr00 4y ago

A long time. Much like self-driving cars, AI can take you 90% of the way there, but the last 10% is the difference between music that sort-of-seems-competent, and music that people will actually listen to and enjoy.

consumer451 4y ago
Is it really the same though? A driving system which can only create a good outcome 90% of the time is not really useful as irl human safety is a factor. However, a creative system curated by a human could end up creating useful outputs, could it not?
- zild3d 4y ago
  100%, poor music output can be responded to with "next". poor self driving car output can be a collision
- mjr00 4y ago
  Obviously different safety outcomes, but ultimately it's the same idea: unless you can hit that last 10%, it's essentially useless. You could pump out AI songs that are about as good as the 10,000 songs that get uploaded to Soundcloud every day, but nobody listens to those already. It's really only the best <1% of music that people listen to. Something that can be further refined by humans is more interesting. There's people looking into AI-based sample generation which is a lot more promising than full song generation, IMO.
  - consumer451 4y ago
    > Something that can be further refined by humans is more interesting. Exactly, that is what I was trying to say. The way I look at it is that most people who have Ableton installed cannot create an amazing song. Now let's say they are able to prompt a Stable Diffusion Audio system with a prompt like kanye type beat with flute melody in the key of E. The system might output 90% hot garbage, but it's easy to skip that within seconds of hearing it. So they clip and loop the good part, add whatever personal skills they do have, and upload that. And wow, I just found out that OpenAI's Jukebox[0] was creating this stuff two years ago. This seems like the lowest hanging fruit to me, compared to visuals. Also could be extremely lucrative. I wonder if we are already listen to ML generated music and it's just not advertised? [0] https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/ https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/ related post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23032243 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23032243
  - Teever 4y ago
    I'm not so sure that the most popular music is the best 1% of music. Artists don't always become famous or popular because they're the best, instead it happens because they're pliable in a business sense and fit into a bigger picture of what the product is supposed to be.
- nemo44x 4y ago
  Why humans? Build an AI that can judge good outcomes from bad. Build another AI that can judge good outcome AIs, etc. Its AIs all the way down.
moralestapia 4y ago
Honestly, MidJourney, Stable Diffussion, et. al. have closed that 10% gap quite quickly (in months!). I'll give it two years, at most, until we get pretty good audio and video generation from AI.
- skybrian 4y ago
  For portraits maybe, but in general no, they have not. It's fairly easy to come up with objects they can't do well. (One example: a piano keyboard.)
- mjr00 4y ago
  > Honestly, MidJourney, Stable Diffussion, et. al. have closed that 10% gap quite quickly (in months!). Have they? If anything, the past few months has shown that after the initial hype dies down, people find the limitations very quickly. It was only weeks ago that people here and on Reddit were proclaiming that graphic designers and artists were no longer needed. But while Stable Diffusion is great at making somewhat surreal images of Jeffrey Epstein eating an apple in the style of Picasso, it's not very good at, say, making a sleek, modern user interface mockup for a bank's login portal. And it turns out graphic designers are currently only paid for one of those things.
  - johndough 4y ago
    Stable Diffusion does not generate nice UIs because it has not been trained to do so. It has mostly been trained on the "laion-improved-aesthetics" dataset, which includes "aesthetic" images. There are only very few UI mockups in there. You can explore the dataset here: https://laion-aesthetic.datasette.io/laion-aesthetic-6pls/images https://laion-aesthetic.datasette.io/laion-aesthetic-6pls/im... You could finetune the Stable Diffusion model to generate UI mockups and would receive much better results.
mattnewton 4y ago
I think it will take a lot less time than self driving cars because testing and iteration is so much cheaper. I would say that, in 5 years this feature will be part of a major commercial streaming service and people listen to it and enjoy it enough to keep using the feature.
tartoran 4y ago
Self driving will likely grow to a point where driving will become an art, sport or a hobby but outside self driving traffic. For movies and music it could be similar in some ways. When the next generations will be raised by AI they will adapt their taste as well. Classical driving or music or films won’t completely die off but would become a niche thing.

by mjr00 4y ago

consumer451 4y ago

Is it really the same though? A driving system which can only create a good outcome 90% of the time is not really useful as irl human safety is a factor. However, a creative system curated by a human could end up creating useful outputs, could it not?

zild3d 4y ago
100%, poor music output can be responded to with "next". poor self driving car output can be a collision
mjr00 4y ago
Obviously different safety outcomes, but ultimately it's the same idea: unless you can hit that last 10%, it's essentially useless. You could pump out AI songs that are about as good as the 10,000 songs that get uploaded to Soundcloud every day, but nobody listens to those already. It's really only the best <1% of music that people listen to. Something that can be further refined by humans is more interesting. There's people looking into AI-based sample generation which is a lot more promising than full song generation, IMO.
- consumer451 4y ago
  > Something that can be further refined by humans is more interesting. Exactly, that is what I was trying to say. The way I look at it is that most people who have Ableton installed cannot create an amazing song. Now let's say they are able to prompt a Stable Diffusion Audio system with a prompt like kanye type beat with flute melody in the key of E. The system might output 90% hot garbage, but it's easy to skip that within seconds of hearing it. So they clip and loop the good part, add whatever personal skills they do have, and upload that. And wow, I just found out that OpenAI's Jukebox[0] was creating this stuff two years ago. This seems like the lowest hanging fruit to me, compared to visuals. Also could be extremely lucrative. I wonder if we are already listen to ML generated music and it's just not advertised? [0] https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/ https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/ related post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23032243 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23032243
- Teever 4y ago
  I'm not so sure that the most popular music is the best 1% of music. Artists don't always become famous or popular because they're the best, instead it happens because they're pliable in a business sense and fit into a bigger picture of what the product is supposed to be.
nemo44x 4y ago
Why humans? Build an AI that can judge good outcomes from bad. Build another AI that can judge good outcome AIs, etc. Its AIs all the way down.

moralestapia 4y ago

Honestly, MidJourney, Stable Diffussion, et. al. have closed that 10% gap quite quickly (in months!). I'll give it two years, at most, until we get pretty good audio and video generation from AI.

skybrian 4y ago
For portraits maybe, but in general no, they have not. It's fairly easy to come up with objects they can't do well. (One example: a piano keyboard.)
mjr00 4y ago
> Honestly, MidJourney, Stable Diffussion, et. al. have closed that 10% gap quite quickly (in months!). Have they? If anything, the past few months has shown that after the initial hype dies down, people find the limitations very quickly. It was only weeks ago that people here and on Reddit were proclaiming that graphic designers and artists were no longer needed. But while Stable Diffusion is great at making somewhat surreal images of Jeffrey Epstein eating an apple in the style of Picasso, it's not very good at, say, making a sleek, modern user interface mockup for a bank's login portal. And it turns out graphic designers are currently only paid for one of those things.
- johndough 4y ago
  Stable Diffusion does not generate nice UIs because it has not been trained to do so. It has mostly been trained on the "laion-improved-aesthetics" dataset, which includes "aesthetic" images. There are only very few UI mockups in there. You can explore the dataset here: https://laion-aesthetic.datasette.io/laion-aesthetic-6pls/images https://laion-aesthetic.datasette.io/laion-aesthetic-6pls/im... You could finetune the Stable Diffusion model to generate UI mockups and would receive much better results.

mattnewton 4y ago

I think it will take a lot less time than self driving cars because testing and iteration is so much cheaper. I would say that, in 5 years this feature will be part of a major commercial streaming service and people listen to it and enjoy it enough to keep using the feature.

tartoran 4y ago

Self driving will likely grow to a point where driving will become an art, sport or a hobby but outside self driving traffic. For movies and music it could be similar in some ways. When the next generations will be raised by AI they will adapt their taste as well. Classical driving or music or films won’t completely die off but would become a niche thing.