7 ms·

It's upsetting that so many here want to take a genuine (and very scary) international crisis and use it to flog their own personal peeves. Needless to say, "G

by ajross 4y ago

It's upsetting that so many here want to take a genuine (and very scary) international crisis and use it to flog their own personal peeves. Needless to say, "German energy policy of the last two decades" and "Let's Invade Ukraine and Blackmail Europe!" are different decisions, and subject to different analysis. You can have reasonable opinions about both, but if your opposition to Russian adventurism and brinksmanship[1] is grounded only on your support for the German nuclear industry, I think you're not helping the discourse. [1] It's looking increasingly likely that they blew up Nordstream, which is dangerously close to an act of war against other nuclear powers.

m348e912 4y ago
Honest question. How did you get to the logical conclusion that Russia is the most likely party that bombed Nordstream?
- ajross 4y ago
  - jaywalk 4y ago
    You don't have to believe that every government in the West is lying about it. You just have to believe that one government (the one who did it) is lying, and the rest don't know because they weren't told.
    - bombcar 4y ago
      You don't even need one government to lie; you only need a small portion thereof. And if you did it right, you could have setup this whole procedure ages ago and then have complete deniability.
      - Izkata 4y ago
        You don't even need a small portion to lie, you can just take them at their word: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-german-chancellor-nord-stream-2-russia/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-german-chancellor-nord-st...
    - MichaelCollins 4y ago
      > You just have to believe that one government (the one who did it) is lying, and the rest don't know because they weren't told. Or the rest figure it out and independently conclude that siding with NATO is still their best choice, so they better keep up the lie and avoid the drama of calling out their ally.
  - mc32 4y ago
    If we're going with that speculation then we could also speculate there is a small likelihood someone doesn't want someone else get cold feet and Kapitulieren in the middle of a bitter cold winter.
    - landemva 4y ago
      No options now to turn on the pipeline. I recall USA sabotaged a USSR pipeline way back in 1980s. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/reagan-approved-plan-to-sabotage-soviets/a9184eff-47fd-402e-beb2-63970851e130/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r...
      - m348e912 4y ago
        The way the article reads it's not clear if the US sabotaged software that was ultimately stolen by the Russians and used on pipelines or if the US intentionally and covertly transferred the flawed technology through more legitimate channels.
        landemva 4y ago
        I recall it as USA found out from a spy the shopping list, and created sabotaged items that would be stolen. Supposedly the explosion shockwaves were expected by a few USA insiders. I have yet to read the referenced book, though it looks like a fascinating (though white-washed) read.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - avgcorrection 4y ago
    > Now, this is the internet, so surely there will be plenty of people in this topic willing to disbelieve their governments. Can you even imagine? Degenerates who don’t trust their own governments? Verräter. Being mildly skeptical of one government is... fine... but two who are allies? Eight who are allies? The official Nato position? Surely, at some point they all become infallible. Don’t discredit your own fatherland, mensch.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- gambiting 4y ago
  To me it's completely obvious - Poland and its 50 million citizens depend on the Norway->Poland gas pipeline for having any gas this winter at all. Blowing up Nordstream is clearly a signal from Russia that if we don't stop pushing back on Ukraine, then that pipeline is next to go. That's how I read it anyway.
  - m348e912 4y ago
    I don't agree with your assessment but I upvoted you anyway. Not sure why you were downvoted.
  - brabel 4y ago
    To me, it's completely obvious the truth is the exact opposite. I feel like only someone who is no longer thinking rationally can claim that Russia would blow up their own pipeline and make it impossible, even after hostilities cease (yes, they will cease one day, they always do... or are you still hostile to Germany?), to get billions and billions of easy Euro flowing down on its coffers. If you know history you should understand that a "small" even like this, in a highly volatile situation like we have now, could easily trigger an irrational war no one can win to start. I would think that Putin knows that very well, so it's not imaginable to me that he would risk. Could someone who feels so strongly against Russia, given all the news we're being fed daily in the West, actually want NATO to enter this conflict directly to finally "destroy" the enemy (which seems to be the only thing that will make Putin give up on Ukraine's East)?? I feel like, given responses like yours, that's exactly what's going on. You believe Putin is so murderous that he would just blow up one of his country's main sources of income, which he supported (against American strong opposition) for so many years, just "to send a signal" he will blow up Poland's main source of energy if the West doesn't back off... I can totally see someone who believes that also believes the only acceptable thing to do right now is to start a full scale war against Russia.... which would be so disastrous to humanity that, once we look back before that happened, we will wish we had just had the balls to freaking sit down with the Devil himself and have a talk and resolve our issues if that would've prevented Armagedon.
    - ajross 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- chimen 4y ago
  I would say Ukraine destroyed it. They are, at this moment, the only ones with a benefit in having Europe unable to received Russian gas any more. It's either Ukraine or the US which has popcorn in the microwave at this war by proxy which bleeds Russia of resources down to nothing. My 2c
  - m348e912 4y ago
    It could also simply be an unintended accident: https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
mc32 4y ago
What's the advantage of blowing up a pipeline over simply shutting the valve when you control the valve AND supply?
- ajross 4y ago
  Removing the incentive for your own power structure to knife you in the back to get the gas pipe turned back on.
  - mc32 4y ago
    I think they have special "camps" and unfortunate mundane accidents such as inopportune tripping hazards next to open 10th floor windows and landlubbers swimming in open ocean for that.
- Rexxar 4y ago
  Show everybody that you can to it on other pipelines while doing it only on a currently useless one (I answer the question by giving one possible advantage, I have no opinion on the real cause at the moment)
  - mc32 4y ago
    There is little value in crazy showing crazy can do crazy things. We know crazy can do crazy. It like Kim, jung-un --it does not have to show us it is willing to lob a nuke, we know it would lob one if if needed to for self-preservation. These are rational actors, their reasoning might be foreign to us and operate differently, but they act within their own rational frameworks.
    - Rexxar 4y ago
      > There is little value in crazy showing crazy can do crazy things There can be some strategical value in some situation to be perceived as crazy. > These are rational actors Probably but it's not 100% guaranteed
  - avgcorrection 4y ago
rkachowski 4y ago
There is of course nuance required, but it's already acknowledged inside and out of Germany that the dependency on Russian gas / nordstream had an effect in bankrolling the aggression against Ukraine. Zelenskyy himself addressed the Bundestag and said as much. > Why is this possible? When we told you that Nord Stream was a weapon and a preparation for a great war, we heard in response that it was an economy after all. Economy. Economy. But it was cement for a new wall. [1] [1] https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/promova-prezidenta-ukrayini-volodimira-zelenskogo-u-bundesta-73621 https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/promova-prezidenta-ukra...
scifibestfi 4y ago
Ah yes, this is straight from Sun Tzu. Attack thyself. /s
- marcfr 4y ago
  Quite honestly, if a bank robber goes into a bank and shoots himself into his foot, saying: 'now imagine what I could do to you' - I'd be pretty impressed! Related, an article in the WaPo about this behavior: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/reagan-approved-plan-to-sabotage-soviets/a9184eff-47fd-402e-beb2-63970851e130/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r...
UnFleshedOne 4y ago
> "German energy policy of the last two decades" and "Let's Invade Ukraine and Blackmail Europe!" There is a good argument that those two are related. Energy is a weapon of war for russia, and it works best when there is a dependency on it. A lot of money flows towards increasing that dependency, including towards advocacy groups with irrational stance against nuclear.

by ajross 4y ago

m348e912 4y ago

Honest question. How did you get to the logical conclusion that Russia is the most likely party that bombed Nordstream?

ajross 4y ago
- jaywalk 4y ago
  You don't have to believe that every government in the West is lying about it. You just have to believe that one government (the one who did it) is lying, and the rest don't know because they weren't told.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    You don't even need one government to lie; you only need a small portion thereof. And if you did it right, you could have setup this whole procedure ages ago and then have complete deniability.
    - Izkata 4y ago
      You don't even need a small portion to lie, you can just take them at their word: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-german-chancellor-nord-stream-2-russia/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-german-chancellor-nord-st...
  - MichaelCollins 4y ago
    > You just have to believe that one government (the one who did it) is lying, and the rest don't know because they weren't told. Or the rest figure it out and independently conclude that siding with NATO is still their best choice, so they better keep up the lie and avoid the drama of calling out their ally.
- mc32 4y ago
  If we're going with that speculation then we could also speculate there is a small likelihood someone doesn't want someone else get cold feet and Kapitulieren in the middle of a bitter cold winter.
  - landemva 4y ago
    No options now to turn on the pipeline. I recall USA sabotaged a USSR pipeline way back in 1980s. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/reagan-approved-plan-to-sabotage-soviets/a9184eff-47fd-402e-beb2-63970851e130/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r...
    - m348e912 4y ago
      The way the article reads it's not clear if the US sabotaged software that was ultimately stolen by the Russians and used on pipelines or if the US intentionally and covertly transferred the flawed technology through more legitimate channels.
      - landemva 4y ago
        I recall it as USA found out from a spy the shopping list, and created sabotaged items that would be stolen. Supposedly the explosion shockwaves were expected by a few USA insiders. I have yet to read the referenced book, though it looks like a fascinating (though white-washed) read.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- avgcorrection 4y ago
  > Now, this is the internet, so surely there will be plenty of people in this topic willing to disbelieve their governments. Can you even imagine? Degenerates who don’t trust their own governments? Verräter. Being mildly skeptical of one government is... fine... but two who are allies? Eight who are allies? The official Nato position? Surely, at some point they all become infallible. Don’t discredit your own fatherland, mensch.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
gambiting 4y ago
To me it's completely obvious - Poland and its 50 million citizens depend on the Norway->Poland gas pipeline for having any gas this winter at all. Blowing up Nordstream is clearly a signal from Russia that if we don't stop pushing back on Ukraine, then that pipeline is next to go. That's how I read it anyway.
- m348e912 4y ago
  I don't agree with your assessment but I upvoted you anyway. Not sure why you were downvoted.
- brabel 4y ago
  To me, it's completely obvious the truth is the exact opposite. I feel like only someone who is no longer thinking rationally can claim that Russia would blow up their own pipeline and make it impossible, even after hostilities cease (yes, they will cease one day, they always do... or are you still hostile to Germany?), to get billions and billions of easy Euro flowing down on its coffers. If you know history you should understand that a "small" even like this, in a highly volatile situation like we have now, could easily trigger an irrational war no one can win to start. I would think that Putin knows that very well, so it's not imaginable to me that he would risk. Could someone who feels so strongly against Russia, given all the news we're being fed daily in the West, actually want NATO to enter this conflict directly to finally "destroy" the enemy (which seems to be the only thing that will make Putin give up on Ukraine's East)?? I feel like, given responses like yours, that's exactly what's going on. You believe Putin is so murderous that he would just blow up one of his country's main sources of income, which he supported (against American strong opposition) for so many years, just "to send a signal" he will blow up Poland's main source of energy if the West doesn't back off... I can totally see someone who believes that also believes the only acceptable thing to do right now is to start a full scale war against Russia.... which would be so disastrous to humanity that, once we look back before that happened, we will wish we had just had the balls to freaking sit down with the Devil himself and have a talk and resolve our issues if that would've prevented Armagedon.
  - ajross 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
chimen 4y ago
I would say Ukraine destroyed it. They are, at this moment, the only ones with a benefit in having Europe unable to received Russian gas any more. It's either Ukraine or the US which has popcorn in the microwave at this war by proxy which bleeds Russia of resources down to nothing. My 2c
- m348e912 4y ago
  It could also simply be an unintended accident: https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

mc32 4y ago

What's the advantage of blowing up a pipeline over simply shutting the valve when you control the valve AND supply?

ajross 4y ago
Removing the incentive for your own power structure to knife you in the back to get the gas pipe turned back on.
- mc32 4y ago
  I think they have special "camps" and unfortunate mundane accidents such as inopportune tripping hazards next to open 10th floor windows and landlubbers swimming in open ocean for that.
Rexxar 4y ago
Show everybody that you can to it on other pipelines while doing it only on a currently useless one (I answer the question by giving one possible advantage, I have no opinion on the real cause at the moment)
- mc32 4y ago
  There is little value in crazy showing crazy can do crazy things. We know crazy can do crazy. It like Kim, jung-un --it does not have to show us it is willing to lob a nuke, we know it would lob one if if needed to for self-preservation. These are rational actors, their reasoning might be foreign to us and operate differently, but they act within their own rational frameworks.
  - Rexxar 4y ago
    > There is little value in crazy showing crazy can do crazy things There can be some strategical value in some situation to be perceived as crazy. > These are rational actors Probably but it's not 100% guaranteed
- avgcorrection 4y ago

rkachowski 4y ago

There is of course nuance required, but it's already acknowledged inside and out of Germany that the dependency on Russian gas / nordstream had an effect in bankrolling the aggression against Ukraine. Zelenskyy himself addressed the Bundestag and said as much. > Why is this possible? When we told you that Nord Stream was a weapon and a preparation for a great war, we heard in response that it was an economy after all. Economy. Economy. But it was cement for a new wall. [1] [1] https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/promova-prezidenta-ukrayini-volodimira-zelenskogo-u-bundesta-73621 https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/promova-prezidenta-ukra...

scifibestfi 4y ago

Ah yes, this is straight from Sun Tzu. Attack thyself. /s

marcfr 4y ago
Quite honestly, if a bank robber goes into a bank and shoots himself into his foot, saying: 'now imagine what I could do to you' - I'd be pretty impressed! Related, an article in the WaPo about this behavior: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/reagan-approved-plan-to-sabotage-soviets/a9184eff-47fd-402e-beb2-63970851e130/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r...

UnFleshedOne 4y ago

> "German energy policy of the last two decades" and "Let's Invade Ukraine and Blackmail Europe!" There is a good argument that those two are related. Energy is a weapon of war for russia, and it works best when there is a dependency on it. A lot of money flows towards increasing that dependency, including towards advocacy groups with irrational stance against nuclear.