2 ms·
The spectrum between yaay everything is amazing and the dollar system collapses is ... pretty big. "U.S. interest costs won’t rise catastrophically in the shor
by pas 4y ago
The spectrum between yaay everything is amazing and the dollar system collapses is ... pretty big.
"U.S. interest costs won’t rise catastrophically in the short term, and there’s not really a reason to expect interest rates to stay high for decades. Furthermore, inflation will itself erode some of the national debt, reducing long-term interest costs relative to GDP."
"Right now, interest payments haven’t even begun to rise as a percent of tax revenue, and one big reason is inflation. Interest rates are set in dollar amounts, and inflation increases the number of dollars in the economy, meaning that tax revenues increase in dollar terms as well."
+ debt rollover
"the weighted average duration is only about 4 years." (so about half of the debt has to be renewed in about 4 years)
"The Fed currently predicts that it will start cutting rates in 2023. And markets expect this to happen too."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/us-government-debt-is-not-a-ticking https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/us-government-debt-is-not-... [sorry paywall]
"a growing surplus of savings worldwide."
https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/i/70962695/aging-populations-save-more https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/i/70962695/aging-populati...
> end of empire
that's unlikely though
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4