5 ms·

To paraphrase, just because a lot of people are panicking doesn't mean we shouldn't be really afraid! To paraphrase, when a lot of people are panicking it's th

by tdavis 18y ago

To paraphrase, just because a lot of people are panicking doesn't mean we shouldn't be really afraid! To paraphrase, when a lot of people are panicking it's the ideal time to find some fucking spine and not panic. What is panicking going to accomplish? What will being afraid gain you? NOT A DAMN THING! What does not panicking get you? Ask the people who aren't. It gets you lots of money and opportunity. Many people have already made hundreds of thousands of dollars by shorting pretty much any stock possible. Many companies are waiting for their competition to start laying off tons of staff and making deep cuts to spending so they can speed ahead by making smart choices and spending money where it can put them ahead. From: Economy is booming! Credit is free! Leverage everything! Next quarter will be awesome! To: Economy is destroyed! Take all your money and put it under your pillow! Sell the house! Expect to be poor! Just two different forms of compulsory reactions that have a complete lack of foresight. The act of making good financial decisions has not changed. Minimizing both debt and overspending has always been the right thing to do. I have zero debt and as close to zero excess possessions as is possible without living in a log cabin in the woods. I'm not going to change a damn thing except possibly spend more money because stupid fear-mongering like this will create all sorts of opportunity for people who can see the forest for the trees. Why something like a recession would inspire fear in anyone is a complete mystery to me. There's nothing you can do about it so stop being afraid and stop spreading fear as a viable option. Instead, sit down, take a deep breath, realize that this isn't the "end of the world as we know it," and move on with your life. Jesus, you people sound like a whining, crying broken fucking record. All this recession has caused me to "feel" is pissed off constantly. This argument sounds like this, except not hilarious because you're serious: http://video.yahoo.com/watch/2184997/6808646 http://video.yahoo.com/watch/2184997/6808646

wheels 18y ago
Amen, brother. When my grandfather (an entrepreneur himself) asked what this meant for us I said, "We keep going. What else could we do? This will hurt our competitors more than us." I'd love to see bloated tech companies start dropping like flies. It'd leave such huge holes in the market that just beg for someone to come in and fill them with a lean startup.
- petercooper 18y ago
  I'd love to see bloated tech companies start dropping like flies. It'd leave such huge holes in the market that just beg for someone to come in and fill them with a lean startup. I've seen a lot of this attitude lately, so I want to coin a term: startupfreude!
  - wheels 18y ago
    > startupfreude Kind of loses its punch in German since that would only mean "startup joy".
    - nostrademons 18y ago
      Would the correct German (okay, German/English pidgin) be "Schadenstartup"?
      - wheels 18y ago
        "Schaden" is roughly "harm". "Freude" is just "joy". So, no, Schadenstartup doesn't make much more sense. I tried to think of a phrasing that would work for the idea, but nothing came to mind with a similar ring to it. In kind of faux German, Startupschadenfreude, being sure to pronouce "Startup" as "Schtartup" might be amusing. :-)
        eru 18y ago
        Startenfreude.
        DanHulton 18y ago
        But make sure you pronounce it as "Schtartenfreude".
      - bbb 18y ago
        No, that just means "damage startup."
startingup 18y ago
You are putting words in my mouth I didn't say. I am in the same position as you: zero debt (no mortgage or car payment even), almost all cash or precious metals and renting my home. So this panic doesn't mean anything personally in terms of drop in assets. But I do see a fall in my income, so I am tightening my belt - by which I mean things like eating out less, stretching out that laptop for another few months, buying fewer non-essentials, less expensive vacations and so on. That is all I am advocating. It is a rational, non-panicky response to some fairly dire economic circumstances ahead. If you question whether the economic circumstances will become dire, well, bookmark this thread, come back in 1 year, 2 years and 5 years.
- fallentimes 18y ago
  "It is not merely a financial crisis. It is a fundamental economic crisis. The last two weeks brought the crisis to full focus, but we have been building up to it for several years." "It is a rational, non-panicky response to some fairly dire economic circumstances ahead" ??? And this is the second time you've posted the same thing: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=330134 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=330134 Almost all the stats & blanket statements you used are uncited, made up, misapplied or wrong. Maxklein is dead on. And if you are right, we get to see him eat his hat. Fun! Bookmarked.
  - startingup 18y ago
    None of the figures (debt to GDP, savings rate etc) I cited are controversial. Lots of people have been talking about those figures for many, many years, that's why I left out citations. Just to cite a recent example, the Sequoia presentation has all of these and more, in gory detail. Of course, you can interpret that data whichever way you want, but the data itself is clear. You can find the presentation, for example, at: http://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups-and-the-economic-downturn-presentation?type=powerpoint http://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups-... A couple of common objections to my line of argument are: a) debt to GDP is just an accounting number or paper ("we owe it to ourselves" - in a global sense) and we can adjust that without much consequence to the real world. Response: Given that current incomes are not able to service the debt, the debt needs to be written down. As that debt gets written down (for example, if GM or Ford were to file for bankruptcy), there will be economic consequences like lay-offs. Those economic consequences are another way of saying that the projects that the debt financed were unviable and therefore have to be terminated. Those layoffs will cause further debt erosion - those laid-off workers default on their credit card payments, for example. So there are real economic effects to that accounting fiction. Even the dot-com bubble needed several years to be worked out. This is a far bigger bubble. b) The US savings rate is underestimated. The savings rate underestimation argument actually used to cite rising asset values, particularly housing, not being counted in savings. Falling asset values kills that argument.

by tdavis 18y ago

wheels 18y ago

Amen, brother. When my grandfather (an entrepreneur himself) asked what this meant for us I said, "We keep going. What else could we do? This will hurt our competitors more than us." I'd love to see bloated tech companies start dropping like flies. It'd leave such huge holes in the market that just beg for someone to come in and fill them with a lean startup.

petercooper 18y ago
I'd love to see bloated tech companies start dropping like flies. It'd leave such huge holes in the market that just beg for someone to come in and fill them with a lean startup. I've seen a lot of this attitude lately, so I want to coin a term: startupfreude!
- wheels 18y ago
  > startupfreude Kind of loses its punch in German since that would only mean "startup joy".
  - nostrademons 18y ago
    Would the correct German (okay, German/English pidgin) be "Schadenstartup"?
    - wheels 18y ago
      "Schaden" is roughly "harm". "Freude" is just "joy". So, no, Schadenstartup doesn't make much more sense. I tried to think of a phrasing that would work for the idea, but nothing came to mind with a similar ring to it. In kind of faux German, Startupschadenfreude, being sure to pronouce "Startup" as "Schtartup" might be amusing. :-)
      - eru 18y ago
        Startenfreude.
        DanHulton 18y ago
        But make sure you pronounce it as "Schtartenfreude".
    - bbb 18y ago
      No, that just means "damage startup."

startingup 18y ago

You are putting words in my mouth I didn't say. I am in the same position as you: zero debt (no mortgage or car payment even), almost all cash or precious metals and renting my home. So this panic doesn't mean anything personally in terms of drop in assets. But I do see a fall in my income, so I am tightening my belt - by which I mean things like eating out less, stretching out that laptop for another few months, buying fewer non-essentials, less expensive vacations and so on. That is all I am advocating. It is a rational, non-panicky response to some fairly dire economic circumstances ahead. If you question whether the economic circumstances will become dire, well, bookmark this thread, come back in 1 year, 2 years and 5 years.

fallentimes 18y ago
"It is not merely a financial crisis. It is a fundamental economic crisis. The last two weeks brought the crisis to full focus, but we have been building up to it for several years." "It is a rational, non-panicky response to some fairly dire economic circumstances ahead" ??? And this is the second time you've posted the same thing: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=330134 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=330134 Almost all the stats & blanket statements you used are uncited, made up, misapplied or wrong. Maxklein is dead on. And if you are right, we get to see him eat his hat. Fun! Bookmarked.
- startingup 18y ago
  None of the figures (debt to GDP, savings rate etc) I cited are controversial. Lots of people have been talking about those figures for many, many years, that's why I left out citations. Just to cite a recent example, the Sequoia presentation has all of these and more, in gory detail. Of course, you can interpret that data whichever way you want, but the data itself is clear. You can find the presentation, for example, at: http://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups-and-the-economic-downturn-presentation?type=powerpoint http://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups-... A couple of common objections to my line of argument are: a) debt to GDP is just an accounting number or paper ("we owe it to ourselves" - in a global sense) and we can adjust that without much consequence to the real world. Response: Given that current incomes are not able to service the debt, the debt needs to be written down. As that debt gets written down (for example, if GM or Ford were to file for bankruptcy), there will be economic consequences like lay-offs. Those economic consequences are another way of saying that the projects that the debt financed were unviable and therefore have to be terminated. Those layoffs will cause further debt erosion - those laid-off workers default on their credit card payments, for example. So there are real economic effects to that accounting fiction. Even the dot-com bubble needed several years to be worked out. This is a far bigger bubble. b) The US savings rate is underestimated. The savings rate underestimation argument actually used to cite rising asset values, particularly housing, not being counted in savings. Falling asset values kills that argument.