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China is proof that you can not just create competitor to TSMC. China throws billions for decades and it still behind TSMC. They already lost chip war, that's w

by mirzap 4y ago

China is proof that you can not just create competitor to TSMC. China throws billions for decades and it still behind TSMC. They already lost chip war, that's why they are trying to catch up in some other new technologies - nuclear (fusion), AI, space etc.

dirtyid 4y ago
China is proof you can just create a competitor of TSMC. It's simply a matter of poaching their underpaid talent. > China throws billions for decades PRC's first pseudo-serious semi push was 2014 big funds, so far they've spent about 50B, over 8 years. That's less than annual R&D of western semi sector. And basically for first 5 years it wasn't a very serious effort until Trump's Huawei sanctions. PRC semi poached about ~3000 semi engineers from TW, a few hundred top talent from TSMC, and that was enough to realize the recent 7nm breakthrough on DUV in the last couple years once PRC semi started to get serious. US companies wouldn't have any issue accessing western equipment and US could absolutely pressure TSMC / TW into further semi capitulation. So maybe dropping cash and add political sticks to brain drain TSMC. The secret isn't to recreate TSMC, but to paperclip all their people and get to to build US-SMC state side. > lost chip war That remains to be seen, so far there hasn't been any sector PRC couldn't successfully indigenize in relatively short order once central gov started turning the screws. It might not be leading edge, or even commercially competitive, but it will likely be enough. They could also destroy critical East Asian semi supply chain before US can reshore in next few years and be the only country with the most comprehensive indigenous semi supply chain even if on older nodes. Still lots of ways chip war can play out.
rowanG077 4y ago
China is proof that you can do it within a decade. China at worst started a decade ago and for the majority of that time wasn't pushing hard, until Trumps sanctions hit. Now they have 7nm DUV. I don't see how this is anything but a huge success for China.

by mirzap 4y ago

dirtyid 4y ago

China is proof you can just create a competitor of TSMC. It's simply a matter of poaching their underpaid talent. > China throws billions for decades PRC's first pseudo-serious semi push was 2014 big funds, so far they've spent about 50B, over 8 years. That's less than annual R&D of western semi sector. And basically for first 5 years it wasn't a very serious effort until Trump's Huawei sanctions. PRC semi poached about ~3000 semi engineers from TW, a few hundred top talent from TSMC, and that was enough to realize the recent 7nm breakthrough on DUV in the last couple years once PRC semi started to get serious. US companies wouldn't have any issue accessing western equipment and US could absolutely pressure TSMC / TW into further semi capitulation. So maybe dropping cash and add political sticks to brain drain TSMC. The secret isn't to recreate TSMC, but to paperclip all their people and get to to build US-SMC state side. > lost chip war That remains to be seen, so far there hasn't been any sector PRC couldn't successfully indigenize in relatively short order once central gov started turning the screws. It might not be leading edge, or even commercially competitive, but it will likely be enough. They could also destroy critical East Asian semi supply chain before US can reshore in next few years and be the only country with the most comprehensive indigenous semi supply chain even if on older nodes. Still lots of ways chip war can play out.

rowanG077 4y ago

China is proof that you can do it within a decade. China at worst started a decade ago and for the majority of that time wasn't pushing hard, until Trumps sanctions hit. Now they have 7nm DUV. I don't see how this is anything but a huge success for China.