3 ms·

History is a poor predictor. I think that, if you really looked at the common reasons for collapse throughout history you would see at the top of the pops, "Inv

History is a poor predictor. I think that, if you really looked at the common reasons for collapse throughout history you would see at the top of the pops, "Invasion by Mongols", and "Invasion by Puritans", and "Invasion by Bantu", and the like. I'm not worried about those, howsoever historically relevant they are. You list corruption and discontent. I'm also not worried about those.... What we really have, on the ground, are a few fundamental facts: 1. China (among others) is subsidizing the American economy on a grand scale. 2. America, China, Japan, and Europe are all facing recessionary demographic events. America and Europe are facing potential respective Brazilianization/Islamification. 3. The massive productive capacity (agricultural combines, robotics, and computers, for instance) compared with earlier economic depressions will mask the worst effects of your typical crisis such as mass refugees, starvation, etc. There is, sorry for the cliche, a "whole new paradigm" in this instance. Nobody knows what is going to happen, because the facts are all historically unique. ... ADDENDUM: This is the movie I'm watching right now. See if you can spot all the differences between now and then (great movie if you haven't seen it) http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9022016584178907197 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9022016584178907197 Best line of the movie: "One"

maurycy 18y ago
History is a poor predictor because there is no history. History is a tool. For instance, what is the real reason for the current crisis? There is a lot of explanations: goverenment (cheap money, urging to lend to poor), capitalism (complex derivates, greed), poor models (Blackswan), empty money (gold bugs). The same goes with attemps to solve the current crisis. There are too many ideas to count. How do you expect better explanations of the past, if you hardly understand the events going on right now? Of course, the idea is that history was explained better and we can learn from it; the truth is that you end up with explaining reality with previous bad explanations, and your bad explanations will be used later...

maurycy 18y ago

History is a poor predictor because there is no history. History is a tool. For instance, what is the real reason for the current crisis? There is a lot of explanations: goverenment (cheap money, urging to lend to poor), capitalism (complex derivates, greed), poor models (Blackswan), empty money (gold bugs). The same goes with attemps to solve the current crisis. There are too many ideas to count. How do you expect better explanations of the past, if you hardly understand the events going on right now? Of course, the idea is that history was explained better and we can learn from it; the truth is that you end up with explaining reality with previous bad explanations, and your bad explanations will be used later...