5 ms·

I don't think you can just drop a pile of cash and create a competitor to TSMC. Even some state actors can not achieve that. I think TSMC has leverage here, and

by mirzap 4y ago

I don't think you can just drop a pile of cash and create a competitor to TSMC. Even some state actors can not achieve that. I think TSMC has leverage here, and it will have for long time to come.

bombcar 4y ago
It may take time, and it may take more money than people want to spend, but I don't see how it can cost much more than half a trillion dollars, since you could just buy TSMC for less than that.
- gizmo 4y ago
  1) TSMC is not for sale. It's of national importance to Taiwan. 2) There is only one TSMC. If you could just buy one for 500bn the EU would have bought 3 already. Building your own TSMC from scratch takes a decade, if not longer.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    If it takes a decade the time to start is now. I bet if you try the US and EU quietly tell you to stop, because Taiwan without a TSMC monopoly would be very scared.
    - hollerith 4y ago
      And why do the US and European governments care more about how scared Taiwan is than the security of their access to high-end semiconductors?
      - bombcar 4y ago
        Cynically I'd say it's because high-end semiconductors aren't as important to national security as people think they are.
rowanG077 4y ago
Of course you can. China is doing it right now without ASML even. There is nothing special about TSMC here. It's just funding and time. If Apple wanted to I wouldn't doubt they could reach cutting edge tech level within 5 to 10 years. It would cost enormous amounts of money and would probably be a very bad business move. But technically there is no problem.
- mirzap 4y ago
  China is proof that you can not just create competitor to TSMC. China throws billions for decades and it still behind TSMC. They already lost chip war, that's why they are trying to catch up in some other new technologies - nuclear (fusion), AI, space etc.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    China is proof you can just create a competitor of TSMC. It's simply a matter of poaching their underpaid talent. > China throws billions for decades PRC's first pseudo-serious semi push was 2014 big funds, so far they've spent about 50B, over 8 years. That's less than annual R&D of western semi sector. And basically for first 5 years it wasn't a very serious effort until Trump's Huawei sanctions. PRC semi poached about ~3000 semi engineers from TW, a few hundred top talent from TSMC, and that was enough to realize the recent 7nm breakthrough on DUV in the last couple years once PRC semi started to get serious. US companies wouldn't have any issue accessing western equipment and US could absolutely pressure TSMC / TW into further semi capitulation. So maybe dropping cash and add political sticks to brain drain TSMC. The secret isn't to recreate TSMC, but to paperclip all their people and get to to build US-SMC state side. > lost chip war That remains to be seen, so far there hasn't been any sector PRC couldn't successfully indigenize in relatively short order once central gov started turning the screws. It might not be leading edge, or even commercially competitive, but it will likely be enough. They could also destroy critical East Asian semi supply chain before US can reshore in next few years and be the only country with the most comprehensive indigenous semi supply chain even if on older nodes. Still lots of ways chip war can play out.
  - rowanG077 4y ago
outside1234 4y ago
Intel is doing exactly this. Apple can sign a second huge deal with them and change the market overnight. TSMC knows this.
xani_ 4y ago
It would be probably possible, just take 5+ years

by mirzap 4y ago

I don't think you can just drop a pile of cash and create a competitor to TSMC. Even some state actors can not achieve that. I think TSMC has leverage here, and it will have for long time to come.

bombcar 4y ago

It may take time, and it may take more money than people want to spend, but I don't see how it can cost much more than half a trillion dollars, since you could just buy TSMC for less than that.

gizmo 4y ago
1) TSMC is not for sale. It's of national importance to Taiwan. 2) There is only one TSMC. If you could just buy one for 500bn the EU would have bought 3 already. Building your own TSMC from scratch takes a decade, if not longer.
- bombcar 4y ago
  If it takes a decade the time to start is now. I bet if you try the US and EU quietly tell you to stop, because Taiwan without a TSMC monopoly would be very scared.
  - hollerith 4y ago
    And why do the US and European governments care more about how scared Taiwan is than the security of their access to high-end semiconductors?
    - bombcar 4y ago
      Cynically I'd say it's because high-end semiconductors aren't as important to national security as people think they are.

rowanG077 4y ago

Of course you can. China is doing it right now without ASML even. There is nothing special about TSMC here. It's just funding and time. If Apple wanted to I wouldn't doubt they could reach cutting edge tech level within 5 to 10 years. It would cost enormous amounts of money and would probably be a very bad business move. But technically there is no problem.

mirzap 4y ago
China is proof that you can not just create competitor to TSMC. China throws billions for decades and it still behind TSMC. They already lost chip war, that's why they are trying to catch up in some other new technologies - nuclear (fusion), AI, space etc.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  China is proof you can just create a competitor of TSMC. It's simply a matter of poaching their underpaid talent. > China throws billions for decades PRC's first pseudo-serious semi push was 2014 big funds, so far they've spent about 50B, over 8 years. That's less than annual R&D of western semi sector. And basically for first 5 years it wasn't a very serious effort until Trump's Huawei sanctions. PRC semi poached about ~3000 semi engineers from TW, a few hundred top talent from TSMC, and that was enough to realize the recent 7nm breakthrough on DUV in the last couple years once PRC semi started to get serious. US companies wouldn't have any issue accessing western equipment and US could absolutely pressure TSMC / TW into further semi capitulation. So maybe dropping cash and add political sticks to brain drain TSMC. The secret isn't to recreate TSMC, but to paperclip all their people and get to to build US-SMC state side. > lost chip war That remains to be seen, so far there hasn't been any sector PRC couldn't successfully indigenize in relatively short order once central gov started turning the screws. It might not be leading edge, or even commercially competitive, but it will likely be enough. They could also destroy critical East Asian semi supply chain before US can reshore in next few years and be the only country with the most comprehensive indigenous semi supply chain even if on older nodes. Still lots of ways chip war can play out.
- rowanG077 4y ago

outside1234 4y ago

Intel is doing exactly this. Apple can sign a second huge deal with them and change the market overnight. TSMC knows this.

xani_ 4y ago

It would be probably possible, just take 5+ years