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It will get worse because the US federal government will not be able to pay debt service indefinitely. This will either mean a lowering of interest rates and ac

It will get worse because the US federal government will not be able to pay debt service indefinitely. This will either mean a lowering of interest rates and acceleration of both inflation and debt accumulation (merely delaying the collapse of the dollar system) or US federal default which will collapse the dollar system. When dollars quit flowing to the states in return for federal program enforcement there will be little incentive for state governments to continue adhering to federal rules. Warriors likewise don't usually fight for free, so there's unlikely to be a large military presence to hold it all together. From many perspectives, you could consider this to be not the end of capitalism in the USA, but the end of empire altogether. Of course, the politicians, bankers, and managerial elite of the USA have kept this going far longer than I thought possible, so it may not happen that way at all.

pas 4y ago
The spectrum between yaay everything is amazing and the dollar system collapses is ... pretty big. "U.S. interest costs won’t rise catastrophically in the short term, and there’s not really a reason to expect interest rates to stay high for decades. Furthermore, inflation will itself erode some of the national debt, reducing long-term interest costs relative to GDP." "Right now, interest payments haven’t even begun to rise as a percent of tax revenue, and one big reason is inflation. Interest rates are set in dollar amounts, and inflation increases the number of dollars in the economy, meaning that tax revenues increase in dollar terms as well." + debt rollover "the weighted average duration is only about 4 years." (so about half of the debt has to be renewed in about 4 years) "The Fed currently predicts that it will start cutting rates in 2023. And markets expect this to happen too." https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/us-government-debt-is-not-a-ticking https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/us-government-debt-is-not-... [sorry paywall] "a growing surplus of savings worldwide." https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/i/70962695/aging-populations-save-more https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/i/70962695/aging-populati... > end of empire that's unlikely though https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4

pas 4y ago

The spectrum between yaay everything is amazing and the dollar system collapses is ... pretty big. "U.S. interest costs won’t rise catastrophically in the short term, and there’s not really a reason to expect interest rates to stay high for decades. Furthermore, inflation will itself erode some of the national debt, reducing long-term interest costs relative to GDP." "Right now, interest payments haven’t even begun to rise as a percent of tax revenue, and one big reason is inflation. Interest rates are set in dollar amounts, and inflation increases the number of dollars in the economy, meaning that tax revenues increase in dollar terms as well." + debt rollover "the weighted average duration is only about 4 years." (so about half of the debt has to be renewed in about 4 years) "The Fed currently predicts that it will start cutting rates in 2023. And markets expect this to happen too." https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/us-government-debt-is-not-a-ticking https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/us-government-debt-is-not-... [sorry paywall] "a growing surplus of savings worldwide." https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/i/70962695/aging-populations-save-more https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/i/70962695/aging-populati... > end of empire that's unlikely though https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4