5 ms·

You think it's possible apple builds a new fab (they have none) and immediately jumps to better than TSMC 5nm?

ethbr0 4y ago
No. It's impossible to trade (even infinite amounts of) money for calendar time or supply access. Any moves Apple made now would wind their way through ASML et al., through fab construction and qualification, and then finally adapting their chips to a new process. They could pull the trigger on the Power to Intel because they'd spent a decade+ of contingency planning, OS/app support, and acquisitions. This isn't like that.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Can we be sure Apple hasn't been quietly building a fab or at least fab expertise somewhere in the bowels of Cupertino? Do we have enough insight into ASML to be sure they haven't purchased even older fab equipment?
  - ras3022 4y ago
    This is what the TSMC construction site in Arizona looks like. https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-phoenix-construction-progress-may-2022.html https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-pho... They’re probably not hiding something like that in Cupertino.
    - sixstringtheory 4y ago
      It’s in basement level 2 under the mothership, directly under the Apple Car test track on basement level 1
      - ethbr0 4y ago
        Not even a reality distortion field can make something bigger on the inside. :D
ren_engineer 4y ago
fabs take years to build. The only real option Apple would have is some kind of joint venture with Intel and maybe try to bring in the US Department of Defense or US government in general to push the whole chip national security talking point and get more funding
- derbOac 4y ago
  Well, I think that's their leverage (if they have any). They kick the can, wait, take the hit, and then in the meantime make it clear that next time they'll have their own fab. In that scenario TSMC is looking at demanding a 6% hike vs jumpstarting competitors in other countries. Maybe it's unrealistic but it wouldn't be the first time something like that happened in a market. The political conditions aren't unfavorable either.
- Maursault 4y ago
  > The only real option Apple would have... TSMC has a market cap of $356B and maybe $30B in cash. Apple has a market cap of $3.25T and over $200B in cash. Surely you are overlooking a possible option here, which is Apple acquiring TSMC. I don't see it as likely, but it is an option.
  - ren_engineer 4y ago
    Taiwan's government would never allow TSMC to be acquired, it's key to their national security
    - e40 4y ago
      If Apple owned TSMC, wouldn't that make Taiwan more secure, since the US would have more of an interest?
      - Bud 4y ago
        Not really. Our interest in TSMC and other tech assets in Taiwan is already enormous. Any impact would really be on the margins.

No. It's impossible to trade (even infinite amounts of) money for calendar time or supply access. Any moves Apple made now would wind their way through ASML et al., through fab construction and qualification, and then finally adapting their chips to a new process. They could pull the trigger on the Power to Intel because they'd spent a decade+ of contingency planning, OS/app support, and acquisitions. This isn't like that.

bombcar 4y ago
Can we be sure Apple hasn't been quietly building a fab or at least fab expertise somewhere in the bowels of Cupertino? Do we have enough insight into ASML to be sure they haven't purchased even older fab equipment?
- ras3022 4y ago
  This is what the TSMC construction site in Arizona looks like. https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-phoenix-construction-progress-may-2022.html https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-pho... They’re probably not hiding something like that in Cupertino.
  - sixstringtheory 4y ago
    It’s in basement level 2 under the mothership, directly under the Apple Car test track on basement level 1
    - ethbr0 4y ago
      Not even a reality distortion field can make something bigger on the inside. :D

ren_engineer 4y ago

fabs take years to build. The only real option Apple would have is some kind of joint venture with Intel and maybe try to bring in the US Department of Defense or US government in general to push the whole chip national security talking point and get more funding

derbOac 4y ago
Well, I think that's their leverage (if they have any). They kick the can, wait, take the hit, and then in the meantime make it clear that next time they'll have their own fab. In that scenario TSMC is looking at demanding a 6% hike vs jumpstarting competitors in other countries. Maybe it's unrealistic but it wouldn't be the first time something like that happened in a market. The political conditions aren't unfavorable either.
Maursault 4y ago
> The only real option Apple would have... TSMC has a market cap of $356B and maybe $30B in cash. Apple has a market cap of $3.25T and over $200B in cash. Surely you are overlooking a possible option here, which is Apple acquiring TSMC. I don't see it as likely, but it is an option.
- ren_engineer 4y ago
  Taiwan's government would never allow TSMC to be acquired, it's key to their national security
  - e40 4y ago
    If Apple owned TSMC, wouldn't that make Taiwan more secure, since the US would have more of an interest?
    - Bud 4y ago
      Not really. Our interest in TSMC and other tech assets in Taiwan is already enormous. Any impact would really be on the margins.