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For very long decades USSR maintained reputation of a reliable supplier of gas and oil. Russia "inherited" this status after the breakup. However, the first gas
by zoomablemind 4y ago
For very long decades USSR maintained reputation of a reliable supplier of gas and oil. Russia "inherited" this status after the breakup. However, the first gas war against Ukraine in 2009 already showed that the russian political leadership was ready to trade that status over for the geopolitical gains by using gas supply as a tool of war against Ukraine, against Europe.
It worked then to some extent. Sure, why should russia stop? What works should be used again, right?
Here it is, now russia is playing the gas supply card again. However, at this time it is clear that by its hostile and deliberate actions russia further damaged its reliable supplier reputation on the European market.
Does russia want to give up its influence on that market? Of course, not. It again needs a way to maintain the political pressure yet shift the blame for the reputation damage.
Thus, blowing up already non-functioning pipelines serves these purposes. By painting this incident as a mystery, russia will suggest that the supply disruption was beyond its control and not a deliberate choice. Force majeure. Just as it has been making up "technical" reasons for reducing then shuttering the flow via NS-1. Dishonest and obvious, but can still be claimed in court. If anything, the recent arbitrage vs Ukraine's Naftogaz demonstrated such approach in action.
Additionally, now only the Ukrainian pipeline still remains however vulnerable. This allows russia to advance the blackmailing should there be more hardships during the winter.
Whichever the real reasons are, one thing is fully proven is that russia has consistently used the energy supply as weapons and thus cannot be considered as a reliable and trustworthy member of the market. Whichever country to agree to deal with it will have to bear the longterm consequences of any adverse outcomes on its own (Hungary?).