4 ms·

My reading of this is that Apple is happy to wait a bit on next-gen given the macro conditions. However if they just admitted that it would be a big hit to imag

by svnt 4y ago

My reading of this is that Apple is happy to wait a bit on next-gen given the macro conditions. However if they just admitted that it would be a big hit to image. So instead they are looking to create scapegoats. The most plausible scapegoat is the cutting-edge one with a price hike because there is maximum room for others to speculate on what isn’t right/good enough, and there is minimum risk of giving up their spot in line. By the time competition is up on it, Apple can return to their most familiar location: somewhat behind on the bleeding edge of tech, but ahead on integration and UX. It’s also possible that Apple is going to take fab in-house but I’m not aware of any signs of preparation and something like that seems like it would be impossible to keep secret.

adamsmith143 4y ago
>By the time competition is up on it, Apple can return to their most familiar location: somewhat behind on the bleeding edge of tech, but ahead on integration and UX. Seems like a good tradeoff. Is the next years best TSMC chip really that much better than last year's? I doubt it.
- MobiusHorizons 4y ago
  From TSMCs marketing material > N3 technology will offer up to 70% logic density gain, up to 15% speed improvement at the same power and up to 30% power reduction at the same speed as compared with N5 technology. That is a more modest bump than some previous nodes, but still seems worth a 6% increase in price depending on how yields shake out.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    All those "up tos" can sometimes add up to "actually not much". And if Apple is currently a "generation ahead" they can spend that lead-time in other ways. They've done it before out of necessity, and I wouldn't be surprised if Apple has phone features they're holding back to "gloss over" a release that doesn't really have much more CPU.
andreime 4y ago
You think it's possible apple builds a new fab (they have none) and immediately jumps to better than TSMC 5nm?
- ethbr0 4y ago
  No. It's impossible to trade (even infinite amounts of) money for calendar time or supply access. Any moves Apple made now would wind their way through ASML et al., through fab construction and qualification, and then finally adapting their chips to a new process. They could pull the trigger on the Power to Intel because they'd spent a decade+ of contingency planning, OS/app support, and acquisitions. This isn't like that.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    Can we be sure Apple hasn't been quietly building a fab or at least fab expertise somewhere in the bowels of Cupertino? Do we have enough insight into ASML to be sure they haven't purchased even older fab equipment?
    - ras3022 4y ago
      This is what the TSMC construction site in Arizona looks like. https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-phoenix-construction-progress-may-2022.html https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-pho... They’re probably not hiding something like that in Cupertino.
      - sixstringtheory 4y ago
        It’s in basement level 2 under the mothership, directly under the Apple Car test track on basement level 1
        ethbr0 4y ago
        Not even a reality distortion field can make something bigger on the inside. :D

by svnt 4y ago

adamsmith143 4y ago

>By the time competition is up on it, Apple can return to their most familiar location: somewhat behind on the bleeding edge of tech, but ahead on integration and UX. Seems like a good tradeoff. Is the next years best TSMC chip really that much better than last year's? I doubt it.

MobiusHorizons 4y ago
From TSMCs marketing material > N3 technology will offer up to 70% logic density gain, up to 15% speed improvement at the same power and up to 30% power reduction at the same speed as compared with N5 technology. That is a more modest bump than some previous nodes, but still seems worth a 6% increase in price depending on how yields shake out.
- bombcar 4y ago
  All those "up tos" can sometimes add up to "actually not much". And if Apple is currently a "generation ahead" they can spend that lead-time in other ways. They've done it before out of necessity, and I wouldn't be surprised if Apple has phone features they're holding back to "gloss over" a release that doesn't really have much more CPU.

andreime 4y ago

You think it's possible apple builds a new fab (they have none) and immediately jumps to better than TSMC 5nm?

ethbr0 4y ago
No. It's impossible to trade (even infinite amounts of) money for calendar time or supply access. Any moves Apple made now would wind their way through ASML et al., through fab construction and qualification, and then finally adapting their chips to a new process. They could pull the trigger on the Power to Intel because they'd spent a decade+ of contingency planning, OS/app support, and acquisitions. This isn't like that.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Can we be sure Apple hasn't been quietly building a fab or at least fab expertise somewhere in the bowels of Cupertino? Do we have enough insight into ASML to be sure they haven't purchased even older fab equipment?
  - ras3022 4y ago
    This is what the TSMC construction site in Arizona looks like. https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-phoenix-construction-progress-may-2022.html https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-pho... They’re probably not hiding something like that in Cupertino.
    - sixstringtheory 4y ago
      It’s in basement level 2 under the mothership, directly under the Apple Car test track on basement level 1
      - ethbr0 4y ago
        Not even a reality distortion field can make something bigger on the inside. :D