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The problem is that the credit fueled series of booms and busts that started in the 1980s might end here...credit and money supply growth hugely outpaced produc
by kirse 18y ago
The problem is that the credit fueled series of booms and busts that started in the 1980s might end here...credit and money supply growth hugely outpaced productivity growth since the 80s.
Bingo. This is more than just another downswing in the economy. We've reached our limit for credit and leverage-fueled growth and it will NOT be the same level of growth as experienced the past 20-30 years. The U.S. is in debt up to its eyeballs and the bills are starting to come due.
Just looking at this basic chart here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_Federal_Debt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_Federal_Debt(gross).JPG
Shows that since 1980 most of our growth has been on the back of an insane amount of growing debt, which is now to the tune of $32k per PERSON! The bills are coming due, this is a fundamental correction in the economy and it's not going to be a quick little recovery back to growth of the 90s.
- fauigerzigerk 18y agoThat's right, and the chart doesn't even show the whole problem because it shows just the federal dept. Consumer dept and dept of financial institutions is where the biggest growth has been: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09b317e-898d-11dd-8371-0000779fd18c.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09b317e-898d-11dd-8371-0000779fd1... (scroll down for the charts) Another interesting question is of course who owns this dept and how much of it is owed to foreigners, because that points to possible ways of silent default ;-)