4 ms·

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there

by piaste 4y ago

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it. If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already be on a plane to NYC and calling for an emergency UNSC meeting about a terrorist UK/USA attack against Russia's assets. So far, the most they have produced seems to be a mealy-mouthed question on Zakharova's Telegram channel [0]. Given the Russian Foreign Ministry's modus operandi of blaming the West for anything and everything at the slightest excuse, this sudden quiet is extremely significant. [0] https://tass.com/politics/1514405 https://tass.com/politics/1514405

londons_explore 4y ago
If they'd blown up their own assets, they would blame the west for it anyway no?
- tehbeard 4y ago
  The thinking for them doing it themselves is this is more a subtle threat like their polonium and novichok poisonings, but with less immediately political backlash (i.e. No article 5 triggered) A "we have the capability to do this... lots of other pipes out there.... Have a pleasant day" sort of message.
  - sidibe 4y ago
    There's other reasons Russia could have done it too. Drive a wedge between Germany and a country that would have a more obvious reason of hating the pipeline like US or Poland, make sure rapid return of relations and trade is harder to dissuade inner circle from toppling Putin or pressuring him to back down, etc. We still have no idea, no top officials have made any accusations or presented any evidence, and just guessing from motives seems like a crapshoot. What we do know is one country is on an unhinged escalatory path, they're my very tentative guess without knowing exactly why they'd do it.
  - piaste 4y ago
    The incident happening virtually at the same time as the Baltic Pipe is opening also points towards Russia. "Nice brand new pipeline you got there".
- Seb-C 4y ago
  The troll farms have been very quick to start accusing the 'evil USA acting against the EU interests'... Given that their strategy have been for decades to try to sow discord in the west, EU and NATO, I would not be surprised if it was another idea towards this goal.
  - SanjayMehta 4y ago
    That's adorable. Blow up a multi-billion dollar pipeline to provide fodder for trolls.
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
I had the exact opposite reaction, i.e. that the sudden concerted effort to suggest Biden had said he was going to do this seemed so forced and fake to me, that it immediately made me think Russia would be the culprit. But I guess that kind of propaganda generation is semi-uncontrollable and just happens, with whatever seems to work bubbling up as successful (literal) memes replicating. And there's probably similar people throwing stuff against the wall about why it was Russia until they find something with enough versimilitude that it sticks in the mind. It also made me revisit the recent book "how to blow up a pipeline" as I had the same question when I heard that title. How can you justify the short term ecological damage against the long term. I assume it's possible, I just hadn't read an in depth argument on it. Interesting to read it and see if the author has been asked to comment yet. edit, seems they have a film out, so now publicity stunt is a plausible theory: https://boundingintocomics.com/2022/09/26/how-to-blow-up-a-pipeline-director-claims-that-a-high-level-counterterrorism-official-helped-with-the-eco-terrorist-thriller/amp/ https://boundingintocomics.com/2022/09/26/how-to-blow-up-a-p...
ktfelt 4y ago
I noticed that the Western press is quiet, too. Normally they'd scream "terrorist attack" on every front page. Now they only cite Ukraine claiming a Russian terror attack or say nothing. If a Canadian pipe was blown up, the headlines would be different.
- dividedbyzero 4y ago
  I think reactions would be way different if it had been virtually any other pipeline or similar infrastructure. The Nord Streams are quite special in that everyone in the West but Germany would very strongly like them gone and even Germany isn't too thrilled about the liability they've become. If this had been an attack on important transmission lines, there would be much much larger outcry.
- cloutchaser 4y ago
  I wouldn't be suprised if this turns into the next "lab leak theory" in terms of censorship. There's going to be one acceptable party line, parrotted in the media and anything else will be censored on social media as well. There's too much at stake and the infrastructure is already there to create full on censorship for one side and non stop propaganda for the other.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    Everyone is quiet because nobody knows what the party line is supposed to be. On any side.
    - pbak 4y ago
      Most insightful comment yet. +1
- Fatnino 4y ago
  If a Canadian pipe was destroyed it was obviously ecoterrorists
- mhh__ 4y ago
  Which examples of extremely high-stakes geopolitical meddling are you using to form that idea of normality from? Normally we only find out long after said meddling, and what is referred to directly as terrorism is usually done so because it was committed someone easily classified as a terrorist.
sydd 4y ago
Some more indirect evidence that it was Russia: https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1573450988744331274?s=46&t=w8vIXMrwBlRcbJCQfCKwcw https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1573450988744331274?s=4...
- rendall 4y ago
  How is the presence of a submarine detection helicopter evidence that it was Russia?
maratc 4y ago
But if the Russians were screaming bloody murder, this would no doubt be used to accuse them. So: Russians screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it. Russians aren't screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.
- marcusverus 4y ago
  Well said. The idea that we could tell who did this by analyzing the poker faces of the various suspects is pretty fantastical.
- mhh__ 4y ago
  This ignores the reasoning you are responding to in that they have patterns. Governments, in modern parlance even though it's not new practice, troll each other - Russia in particular specializes in a particularly spiteful kind, so where is it now?
- Seb-C 4y ago
  That's a very well expected and deserved consequence of being pathological liars.
- piaste 4y ago
  Not at all. Russia didn't scream bloody murder for MH17, or for innocent Russian citizens being poisoned abroad. They did scream bloody murder, for example, when Ukraine had the gall to fight back and raid ammo stores in Belgorod.

by piaste 4y ago

londons_explore 4y ago

If they'd blown up their own assets, they would blame the west for it anyway no?

tehbeard 4y ago
The thinking for them doing it themselves is this is more a subtle threat like their polonium and novichok poisonings, but with less immediately political backlash (i.e. No article 5 triggered) A "we have the capability to do this... lots of other pipes out there.... Have a pleasant day" sort of message.
- sidibe 4y ago
  There's other reasons Russia could have done it too. Drive a wedge between Germany and a country that would have a more obvious reason of hating the pipeline like US or Poland, make sure rapid return of relations and trade is harder to dissuade inner circle from toppling Putin or pressuring him to back down, etc. We still have no idea, no top officials have made any accusations or presented any evidence, and just guessing from motives seems like a crapshoot. What we do know is one country is on an unhinged escalatory path, they're my very tentative guess without knowing exactly why they'd do it.
- piaste 4y ago
  The incident happening virtually at the same time as the Baltic Pipe is opening also points towards Russia. "Nice brand new pipeline you got there".
Seb-C 4y ago
The troll farms have been very quick to start accusing the 'evil USA acting against the EU interests'... Given that their strategy have been for decades to try to sow discord in the west, EU and NATO, I would not be surprised if it was another idea towards this goal.
- SanjayMehta 4y ago
  That's adorable. Blow up a multi-billion dollar pipeline to provide fodder for trolls.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

I had the exact opposite reaction, i.e. that the sudden concerted effort to suggest Biden had said he was going to do this seemed so forced and fake to me, that it immediately made me think Russia would be the culprit. But I guess that kind of propaganda generation is semi-uncontrollable and just happens, with whatever seems to work bubbling up as successful (literal) memes replicating. And there's probably similar people throwing stuff against the wall about why it was Russia until they find something with enough versimilitude that it sticks in the mind. It also made me revisit the recent book "how to blow up a pipeline" as I had the same question when I heard that title. How can you justify the short term ecological damage against the long term. I assume it's possible, I just hadn't read an in depth argument on it. Interesting to read it and see if the author has been asked to comment yet. edit, seems they have a film out, so now publicity stunt is a plausible theory: https://boundingintocomics.com/2022/09/26/how-to-blow-up-a-pipeline-director-claims-that-a-high-level-counterterrorism-official-helped-with-the-eco-terrorist-thriller/amp/ https://boundingintocomics.com/2022/09/26/how-to-blow-up-a-p...

ktfelt 4y ago

I noticed that the Western press is quiet, too. Normally they'd scream "terrorist attack" on every front page. Now they only cite Ukraine claiming a Russian terror attack or say nothing. If a Canadian pipe was blown up, the headlines would be different.

dividedbyzero 4y ago
I think reactions would be way different if it had been virtually any other pipeline or similar infrastructure. The Nord Streams are quite special in that everyone in the West but Germany would very strongly like them gone and even Germany isn't too thrilled about the liability they've become. If this had been an attack on important transmission lines, there would be much much larger outcry.
cloutchaser 4y ago
I wouldn't be suprised if this turns into the next "lab leak theory" in terms of censorship. There's going to be one acceptable party line, parrotted in the media and anything else will be censored on social media as well. There's too much at stake and the infrastructure is already there to create full on censorship for one side and non stop propaganda for the other.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Everyone is quiet because nobody knows what the party line is supposed to be. On any side.
  - pbak 4y ago
    Most insightful comment yet. +1
Fatnino 4y ago
If a Canadian pipe was destroyed it was obviously ecoterrorists
mhh__ 4y ago
Which examples of extremely high-stakes geopolitical meddling are you using to form that idea of normality from? Normally we only find out long after said meddling, and what is referred to directly as terrorism is usually done so because it was committed someone easily classified as a terrorist.

sydd 4y ago

Some more indirect evidence that it was Russia: https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1573450988744331274?s=46&t=w8vIXMrwBlRcbJCQfCKwcw https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1573450988744331274?s=4...

rendall 4y ago
How is the presence of a submarine detection helicopter evidence that it was Russia?

maratc 4y ago

But if the Russians were screaming bloody murder, this would no doubt be used to accuse them. So: Russians screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it. Russians aren't screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.

marcusverus 4y ago
Well said. The idea that we could tell who did this by analyzing the poker faces of the various suspects is pretty fantastical.
mhh__ 4y ago
This ignores the reasoning you are responding to in that they have patterns. Governments, in modern parlance even though it's not new practice, troll each other - Russia in particular specializes in a particularly spiteful kind, so where is it now?
Seb-C 4y ago
That's a very well expected and deserved consequence of being pathological liars.
piaste 4y ago
Not at all. Russia didn't scream bloody murder for MH17, or for innocent Russian citizens being poisoned abroad. They did scream bloody murder, for example, when Ukraine had the gall to fight back and raid ammo stores in Belgorod.