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Ray Kurzweil had a prediction that by 2030 nanobots will cure diseases (before we have the technology to cure aging, which many people predict to be about 15 ye

Ray Kurzweil had a prediction that by 2030 nanobots will cure diseases (before we have the technology to cure aging, which many people predict to be about 15 years from now, Ray predicts earlier). While it's not inorganic molecules (Ray is not specific about technology implementations on purpose), immunotherapy is already getting better, and this looks like one more interesting example.

gpt5 4y ago
> before we have the technology to cure aging, which many people predict to be about 15 years from now, Ray predicts 12 This number seems oddly small and specific? If aging is "cured" in humans in 12-15 years, you would expect it to be already cured today in animal models. Is there such an example where we were able to make an animal immortal?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- jeroenvlek 4y ago
  My mom used to work at an institute for Vitality and Aging and the leading professor there liked to say that "the first person that will reach a 1000 years of age has already been born"
  - highwaylights 4y ago
    It wasn't Aubrey De Grey was it? In any case I'm skeptical for the same reasons as the parent. Until we can do it to a mouse reliably, it's at least 20 years away. The other thing that people miss is we have cures for a whole lot of things that people still die from in many parts of the world. If this technology was available, I don't see any encouraging precedent that it would become cost effective enough in any normal time horizon to be available to normies like the rest of us.
    - jeroenvlek 4y ago
      No, this was at a less famous institute in Leiden, The Netherlands
- xiphias2 4y ago
  There is, partial reprogramming using Yamanaka factors. The problem is that they can turn some cells into stem cells if they are applied too long, so while they work amazingly well, they have a side effect of causing cancer. There are 2 ways to fix the problem: have a cure for cancer or use other proteins instead of Yamanaka factors that only do partial reprogramming. There's research going on in both direction, though the second solution could have more research in it (the $2B injection to Altos Labs by Jeff Bezos can help though).
- macrolime 4y ago
  Not exactly, but there are promising experiments that may or may not turn into something in the near future. There are competing hypotheses for what's causing aging and how it may be "cured". Among the more "simple" ones is that aging is programmed, for some reason like to ensure genetic diversity and that new genes can get a good chance to survive and reproduce. That's the thing with young blood seemingly doing some rejuvenation on older individuals. This has not yet resulted in huge lifespan extensions of any animals. Whether this is just because the procedures needs to be tweaked a bit or the hypothesis is wrong should become clear in the next few years I think.
uwagar 4y ago
is it just me but doesnt ray kurzweil look like a ghost from all the drugs hes inje[cs]ted?
- uwagar 4y ago
  aparently he eats 100 pills a day now according to wikipedia.
  - xiphias2 4y ago
    Maybe he eats them, but he's fat. Having a personal trainer would help him live longer than those pills. He's clearly not maximizing his probability of living long enough to get access to age reversal medicine, but that doesn't mean that his ideas were not thought provoking.
    - uwagar 4y ago
      a guy that needs to eat 100 pills a day needs to get his mental health checked.
thorum 4y ago
It will be so crazy to me if Ray Kurzweil ends up being right about everything.
- SapporoChris 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Predictions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Predictions Yes, it would be crazy, because some of his predictions have already been incorrect.
oldgradstudent 4y ago
The prediction was about nanobots curing diseases, not papers about nanobots curing diseases.
pazimzadeh 4y ago
2030 seems way too early, but Feynman predicted the nanobots a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eRCygdW--c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eRCygdW--c There are at least two ways to go about this: 1 - keep making computers smaller until they are ingestible and somehow interface with biology 2 - learn enough about existing biology to be able to re-program cells for our purposes However, to me the most exciting type of projects are the ones that merge these approaches, like an ingestible pill shaped device containing a compartment filled with bacteria engineered for particular tasks. In one case the bacteria were made to glow in the presence of heme, and the device contains a light sensor as well as bluetooth transmitter to relay the data to the smartphone in real time. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aas9315 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aas9315 As Feyman mentioned, this type of device could also be made to capture a biopsy, perform certain micro-surgeries, etc aka Swallow the Doctor. But without even even getting to the super fancy nanorobots, it seems to me there is a lot of low-hanging fruit in simply chemically modifying or repackaging existing drugs for tissue-specific application. This would enable increasing the dosage of existing medication without increasing side effects. That seems like something that could happen by 2030 and it would revolutionize medicine.

gpt5 4y ago

> before we have the technology to cure aging, which many people predict to be about 15 years from now, Ray predicts 12 This number seems oddly small and specific? If aging is "cured" in humans in 12-15 years, you would expect it to be already cured today in animal models. Is there such an example where we were able to make an animal immortal?

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
jeroenvlek 4y ago
My mom used to work at an institute for Vitality and Aging and the leading professor there liked to say that "the first person that will reach a 1000 years of age has already been born"
- highwaylights 4y ago
  It wasn't Aubrey De Grey was it? In any case I'm skeptical for the same reasons as the parent. Until we can do it to a mouse reliably, it's at least 20 years away. The other thing that people miss is we have cures for a whole lot of things that people still die from in many parts of the world. If this technology was available, I don't see any encouraging precedent that it would become cost effective enough in any normal time horizon to be available to normies like the rest of us.
  - jeroenvlek 4y ago
    No, this was at a less famous institute in Leiden, The Netherlands
xiphias2 4y ago
There is, partial reprogramming using Yamanaka factors. The problem is that they can turn some cells into stem cells if they are applied too long, so while they work amazingly well, they have a side effect of causing cancer. There are 2 ways to fix the problem: have a cure for cancer or use other proteins instead of Yamanaka factors that only do partial reprogramming. There's research going on in both direction, though the second solution could have more research in it (the $2B injection to Altos Labs by Jeff Bezos can help though).
macrolime 4y ago
Not exactly, but there are promising experiments that may or may not turn into something in the near future. There are competing hypotheses for what's causing aging and how it may be "cured". Among the more "simple" ones is that aging is programmed, for some reason like to ensure genetic diversity and that new genes can get a good chance to survive and reproduce. That's the thing with young blood seemingly doing some rejuvenation on older individuals. This has not yet resulted in huge lifespan extensions of any animals. Whether this is just because the procedures needs to be tweaked a bit or the hypothesis is wrong should become clear in the next few years I think.

uwagar 4y ago

is it just me but doesnt ray kurzweil look like a ghost from all the drugs hes inje[cs]ted?

uwagar 4y ago
aparently he eats 100 pills a day now according to wikipedia.
- xiphias2 4y ago
  Maybe he eats them, but he's fat. Having a personal trainer would help him live longer than those pills. He's clearly not maximizing his probability of living long enough to get access to age reversal medicine, but that doesn't mean that his ideas were not thought provoking.
  - uwagar 4y ago
    a guy that needs to eat 100 pills a day needs to get his mental health checked.

thorum 4y ago

It will be so crazy to me if Ray Kurzweil ends up being right about everything.

SapporoChris 4y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Predictions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Predictions Yes, it would be crazy, because some of his predictions have already been incorrect.

oldgradstudent 4y ago

The prediction was about nanobots curing diseases, not papers about nanobots curing diseases.

pazimzadeh 4y ago

2030 seems way too early, but Feynman predicted the nanobots a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eRCygdW--c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eRCygdW--c There are at least two ways to go about this: 1 - keep making computers smaller until they are ingestible and somehow interface with biology 2 - learn enough about existing biology to be able to re-program cells for our purposes However, to me the most exciting type of projects are the ones that merge these approaches, like an ingestible pill shaped device containing a compartment filled with bacteria engineered for particular tasks. In one case the bacteria were made to glow in the presence of heme, and the device contains a light sensor as well as bluetooth transmitter to relay the data to the smartphone in real time. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aas9315 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aas9315 As Feyman mentioned, this type of device could also be made to capture a biopsy, perform certain micro-surgeries, etc aka Swallow the Doctor. But without even even getting to the super fancy nanorobots, it seems to me there is a lot of low-hanging fruit in simply chemically modifying or repackaging existing drugs for tissue-specific application. This would enable increasing the dosage of existing medication without increasing side effects. That seems like something that could happen by 2030 and it would revolutionize medicine.