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> This is kind of a weird op-ed. It frames this as though the costs are all red marker, but the costs of rebuilding include labor and materials and help to rein
by sagarm 4y ago
> This is kind of a weird op-ed. It frames this as though the costs are all red marker, but the costs of rebuilding include labor and materials and help to reinvigorate local economies. I'm sure there is a net cost, but it has been serviceable so far.
The example given is $1B to rebuild a community of 300, or $33M/person. There's no way that community can ever pay back that loan -- and if they can, why are we subsidizing it?
> Insurance isn't mentioned at all in the article. WUI areas have become nearly impossible to insure, even if you're doing all the things right for making your property fire-resistant (and most homeowners in these areas aren't). As long as California's housing market stays red-hot, there will still be another sucker willing to pay for California's state-insurance-plan-of-last-resort, but someday, somehow, something's gonna change and all of a sudden a lot of people won't be able to afford homeowner's insurance, and that's going to gut a lot of the fire-prone small towns.
The formula is simple: if a fire is expected every X years, and the cost to rebuild is $Y, can you charge $Y/X + some margin for profit and bad luck? Private insurance is saying no. If public insurance is saying yes, it is only via some form of subsidy.
Should we be subsidizing the rural lifestyle in this way? We already directly subsidize rural roads, electrical infrastructure, hospitals, telecom, and more. We have many more indirect subsidies via higher electrical bills for the undergrounding of electrical transmission lines, agricultural subsidies, implied muni bond insurance, etc.
We've got to draw the line somewhere, and we can't afford for it to be at $33M/resident.
- rightbyte 4y agoHow can there possibly be 33M USD properties per resident anyway? Just seems like a really bad procurement process from the state.
- Jensson 4y agoSeems like corruption to me, someone is lining their pockets. That is way too much to just be a bad procurement.
- votepaunchy 4y ago> How can there possibly be 33M USD properties per resident anyway? $1B/300 is $3M.
- sagarm 4y agoYeah, order of magnitude error. Sorry about that. The question is still reasonable, though, and I would guess the answer is that it's that a ton of infrastructure needs to be replaced and rural areas have always had unsustainable infrastructure costs. Also demand for construction labor is high after wildfires so costs are elevated.
- rightbyte 4y agoAh ok ye. Makes sense. I feel still 3M per pop is like one order of magnitude to high for only the properties, land cost excluded (since the land is still there). Especially since many household are 2+ people. One would expect maybe a hasty big procurement would give twice the cost of building compared to building the houses one by one, not 10 times. Also the roads and water pipes etc should be fine still.