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It makes sense to stop selling gas to the EU, but Russia already did that weeks ago. What makes little sense is then blowing up the pipeline. Russia were alrea
by phire 4y ago
It makes sense to stop selling gas to the EU, but Russia already did that weeks ago.
What makes little sense is then blowing up the pipeline. Russia were already not selling gas, why would they take the extra step of blowing up the pipeline? That removes it as possible leverage for future negotiations.
And if you have the capability to blow up pipelines, why not blow up all the other pipelines transporting gas from Scandinavia to the rest of the EU? Make Nordstream the only option.
It actually makes more sense for Germany or one of their allies to have blown up Nordstream, to remove the temptation to for Germany to open it back up in the middle of winter when they are suffering massive gas shortages.
- ordu 4y agoMy experience of such discussions hints that they lead nowhere. It is a classical mystery. It is impossible to solve without additional information. But if we need to guess based on our current knowledge, then Putin is the best bet: he is a liar, he disrespect all the rules, he likes sudden unexpected moves, he likes to act undercover. I know no other entity that can have reasons to blow up pipelines who matches better.
- phire 4y agoIt's certainly possible. But Putin has been operating with good internal logic this entire time (even if the assumptions driving that logic have been flawed at points). And I'm not really sure what logic would cause him to attack Nordstream. The two best ideas I have are: 1. He wants to remove an option of retreat for Germany. Putin things that with Nordstream inactive, Germany can wait until they get low on gas in the middle of winter before crawling back to Russia and conceding in exchange for gas. But if it's damaged, Germany kind of need to start repairing it now, and Putin can force them to concede sooner. And Putin probably feels short on time. 2. Putin is already planning for a civil war, and doesn't think he will control Nordstream during a civil war. By destroying Nordstream, it will be harder for some civil war faction to turn it back on. Neither are great theories. At least without some extra evidence to suggest Putin is thinking along one (or both) of these lines.
- actionfromafar 4y ago3. Putin wants to remove some incentives for a palace coup - the new ruler will not have Nordstream anymore to give to Europe.
- MichaelCollins 4y agoThe new ruler could give Europe a withdrawal from Ukraine instead, I don't think this meaningfully impacts the viability of a coup.
- phire 4y agoKeep in mind, that's actually the wrong question. The correct question is: Does Putin think that people who he things might stage a coup might be taking the Nordstream pipeline into account. We are so many levels deep with this line of thinking, it gets really hard to reason about. Oh, and it's less about what the the new ruler might offer to Europe, but how the new ruler is planning to get funding.