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I think it was the Russians trying to sow discord and distrust within the western allies. Nobody was going to use this pipeline in the near future anyway, so th

I think it was the Russians trying to sow discord and distrust within the western allies. Nobody was going to use this pipeline in the near future anyway, so there is no immediate cost for Russia. If there really should be a lifting of the sanctions then there would be enough time to repair the pipeline....done and paid by the germans.

eternalban 4y ago
As I mentioned this, or other variants I've seen being posted in twitter, with Russia doing this does not compute. A kilometer wide gas bubble on surface indicates substantial damage. I think it safe to assume that sea water in pipe further damages an additional length of pipeline. German government (or any future one with surprise ala Italy) no longer has the option of giving in to economic and social pressures and making up with Russia before this winter. That option is gone. Russia would be monumentally stupid to lose that option. That was a negotiation card! This is what NS going bye bye means. Someone mentioned elsewhere that this is the response to the referendums that RF just held. This somehow sounds right. Generally don't like to be pessimistic, but this action (whoever did it does not matter, unless some random terror group) indicates that whoever did it has already determined that there will be war. [The real thing not the far away affair on social media] They know this but they are not going to announce it to us until absolutely necessary. There is no way there can be global peace after powers start destroying infrastructure at this level. There will be a contest of strength (we're past the will part) after which pipelines and satellites will once again be safe. p.s. in case it is not clear, I've changed my opinion a bit in this reply. "Risks" may not be relevant because it is understood (and this action was basically a turn in the game with an escalation) that there is going to be, has to be, a showdown. There will be war.
- Paradigma11 4y ago
  Germany has enough gas for the winter and given the current sentiment I dont think there is any chance before spring/summer of any accommodation with Russia. I guess Russia REALLY needs to break up the (mostly) united western alliance to reduce arms and financial support for Ukraine. Paying for this with some temporary broken pipeline that wouldnt have been used anyway is most likely acceptable for the siloviki.
  - eternalban 4y ago
    It's not clear to me what you are saying. This is what I got from your post: 'Russia destroys its own pipeline so as to cause fracture in the alliance.' Not sure how is that supposed to work! Care to explain? Also, would Russia blowing this constitute an act of war on Germany by Russia? Is that like Putin saying "we don't have enough on our plate. Lets go to war with Germany"? Russia is the -loser- here. Why is this not clear?
    - Paradigma11 4y ago
      "'Russia destroys its own pipeline so as to cause fracture in the alliance.' Not sure how is that supposed to work! Care to explain?" Sure, just look at this discussion where the majority opinion is that the US or some other western nation did this. This is gold for all the Orbans and Salvinis in europe to change popular opinion. See, the US wants us to freeze and pay enormous sums for their LNG. Lets go back to our russian friends with their cheap oil and gas. Who cares about those corrupt Ukrainians anyway. That is right now far more important for Russia than some temporary shutdown of a pipeline that is not in use anyway. For me the main indicator is that this is a reckless, desperate and somewhat stupid move. The US is none of that things while Russia...
      - eternalban 4y ago
        [edit: this just in: https://nitter.net/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915 https://nitter.net/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915] I see: A false flag by Russia, followed by coordinated propaganda, to convince certain European nations that they just got fucked by US. This then results in a change in popular opinion which forces German government to sit down with Russia and beg for forgiveness. If RF managed to send special forces in that highly monitored and shallow stretch of waters there will inevitably be forensic evidence. How was it done and what clues remain as to how it was done. Can this be sourced then, right to Russia? So there is the competence issue, and subsequent evidence issue. Not to mention, hey, Russia now is at war with NATO. Something that they are clearly, desperately, trying to avoid. Second, I honestly don't think this propaganda reaches a majority of the targeted nation's population. (Same for our propaganda). There is basically a usual suspects demographic in any society that eats this stuff up. They are not influential, in general. Sometimes, like in the past 2 decades, excesses of the ruling class effective inflate the number of people who flip to a counter-narrative and it can be a force. Is that the situation in Germany? Next, you and I disagree about the degree in which "popular opinion" has any influence in immediate and short term strategic decision making by governments. Are Germans going to follow the example of Iranians and revolt in the streets? I just don't see it. (Long term, sure. Public opinion matters.) ~ "the US wants us to freeze and pay enormous sums for their LNG." Btw, this is not what US wants. It's not the money. We print that shit since our CB is blessed by heaven so we can print without consequence ... until we lose global power. No. US wants the EU dependent on energy flows that are subject to the famous "Anglo-Saxons". That would keep EU in line.

eternalban 4y ago

As I mentioned this, or other variants I've seen being posted in twitter, with Russia doing this does not compute. A kilometer wide gas bubble on surface indicates substantial damage. I think it safe to assume that sea water in pipe further damages an additional length of pipeline. German government (or any future one with surprise ala Italy) no longer has the option of giving in to economic and social pressures and making up with Russia before this winter. That option is gone. Russia would be monumentally stupid to lose that option. That was a negotiation card! This is what NS going bye bye means. Someone mentioned elsewhere that this is the response to the referendums that RF just held. This somehow sounds right. Generally don't like to be pessimistic, but this action (whoever did it does not matter, unless some random terror group) indicates that whoever did it has already determined that there will be war. [The real thing not the far away affair on social media] They know this but they are not going to announce it to us until absolutely necessary. There is no way there can be global peace after powers start destroying infrastructure at this level. There will be a contest of strength (we're past the will part) after which pipelines and satellites will once again be safe. p.s. in case it is not clear, I've changed my opinion a bit in this reply. "Risks" may not be relevant because it is understood (and this action was basically a turn in the game with an escalation) that there is going to be, has to be, a showdown. There will be war.

Paradigma11 4y ago
Germany has enough gas for the winter and given the current sentiment I dont think there is any chance before spring/summer of any accommodation with Russia. I guess Russia REALLY needs to break up the (mostly) united western alliance to reduce arms and financial support for Ukraine. Paying for this with some temporary broken pipeline that wouldnt have been used anyway is most likely acceptable for the siloviki.
- eternalban 4y ago
  It's not clear to me what you are saying. This is what I got from your post: 'Russia destroys its own pipeline so as to cause fracture in the alliance.' Not sure how is that supposed to work! Care to explain? Also, would Russia blowing this constitute an act of war on Germany by Russia? Is that like Putin saying "we don't have enough on our plate. Lets go to war with Germany"? Russia is the -loser- here. Why is this not clear?
  - Paradigma11 4y ago
    "'Russia destroys its own pipeline so as to cause fracture in the alliance.' Not sure how is that supposed to work! Care to explain?" Sure, just look at this discussion where the majority opinion is that the US or some other western nation did this. This is gold for all the Orbans and Salvinis in europe to change popular opinion. See, the US wants us to freeze and pay enormous sums for their LNG. Lets go back to our russian friends with their cheap oil and gas. Who cares about those corrupt Ukrainians anyway. That is right now far more important for Russia than some temporary shutdown of a pipeline that is not in use anyway. For me the main indicator is that this is a reckless, desperate and somewhat stupid move. The US is none of that things while Russia...
    - eternalban 4y ago
      [edit: this just in: https://nitter.net/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915 https://nitter.net/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915] I see: A false flag by Russia, followed by coordinated propaganda, to convince certain European nations that they just got fucked by US. This then results in a change in popular opinion which forces German government to sit down with Russia and beg for forgiveness. If RF managed to send special forces in that highly monitored and shallow stretch of waters there will inevitably be forensic evidence. How was it done and what clues remain as to how it was done. Can this be sourced then, right to Russia? So there is the competence issue, and subsequent evidence issue. Not to mention, hey, Russia now is at war with NATO. Something that they are clearly, desperately, trying to avoid. Second, I honestly don't think this propaganda reaches a majority of the targeted nation's population. (Same for our propaganda). There is basically a usual suspects demographic in any society that eats this stuff up. They are not influential, in general. Sometimes, like in the past 2 decades, excesses of the ruling class effective inflate the number of people who flip to a counter-narrative and it can be a force. Is that the situation in Germany? Next, you and I disagree about the degree in which "popular opinion" has any influence in immediate and short term strategic decision making by governments. Are Germans going to follow the example of Iranians and revolt in the streets? I just don't see it. (Long term, sure. Public opinion matters.) ~ "the US wants us to freeze and pay enormous sums for their LNG." Btw, this is not what US wants. It's not the money. We print that shit since our CB is blessed by heaven so we can print without consequence ... until we lose global power. No. US wants the EU dependent on energy flows that are subject to the famous "Anglo-Saxons". That would keep EU in line.