4 ms·

How long will this last with the dollar as strong as it is now (and likely will continue to be for the next few years)?

bretbernhoft 4y ago
This reminds me of a quote from one of my favorite short stories, "The dollar was strong and jobs were plentiful, so when the factory in town announced they were hiring, hundreds of people applied. John was one of the lucky few who got a job. The hours were long and the work was hard, but John was grateful to have a job that paid well. With the extra money, he was able to buy his family a new house."
- oneoff786 4y ago
  Why was John one of the lucky few; if jobs were plentiful?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - mistrial9 4y ago
    perhaps because a certain percentage of the adult population needing jobs are actually unfit in real-life for real reasons
- mensetmanusman 4y ago
  It’s like an ominous beginning that’s only positive…
- cellis 4y ago
  Is this a real short story or did you just GPT-3 this up?
oneoff786 4y ago
It will continue. The dollar is rising because people need American stuff, not in spite of it. So long as Europe doesn’t have Russian gas, the rest of the world will be competing over a much smaller pool of energy in the form of LNG meaning it’s just much more expensive to do manufacturing. It’s not black and white but I would expect energy burdens to outweigh labor burdens for a good long while.
- nebula8804 4y ago
  Why not both? This huge workforce called the boomers accelerated their retirement during COVID and those workers don't entirely have a 1-to 1 replacement given that a sizable chunk of their kids majored in things like underwater basket weaving. Gen-Z is much smaller and is really focused on tech jobs, they are not going to make up the numbers. Where are you going to make up the shortfall? (BTW I understand that this is the Peter Zeihan POV).
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    The US is not constrained by labor supply in the slightest. The basket weaving comment is inaccurate, irrelevant, and mostly just jaded cynicism. Gen Z is not focused on tech jobs either to any sort of meaningful extent that we can’t build up manufacturing. If the US needs to make up a shortfall, it will simply open up immigration more. Good manufacturing jobs tend to be pretty good.
    - nyokodo 4y ago
      > will simply open up immigration more It’s not so simple when the labor crunch is being felt in vast regions of the globe and many (most?) developing nations are aging faster than the US and are older on average or will be over the next 10 - 20 years.
      - katmannthree 4y ago
        When your per capita GDP is 2-4x higher than surrounding nations you're looking to draw from it absolutely is.
        nyokodo 4y ago
        If the relatively young population segments we’d need to draw from are in rapid decline, as they are across the western hemisphere then it doesn’t matter how much cash we have if there’s no one left to emigrate here.

This reminds me of a quote from one of my favorite short stories, "The dollar was strong and jobs were plentiful, so when the factory in town announced they were hiring, hundreds of people applied. John was one of the lucky few who got a job. The hours were long and the work was hard, but John was grateful to have a job that paid well. With the extra money, he was able to buy his family a new house."

oneoff786 4y ago
Why was John one of the lucky few; if jobs were plentiful?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- mistrial9 4y ago
  perhaps because a certain percentage of the adult population needing jobs are actually unfit in real-life for real reasons
mensetmanusman 4y ago
It’s like an ominous beginning that’s only positive…
cellis 4y ago
Is this a real short story or did you just GPT-3 this up?

oneoff786 4y ago

It will continue. The dollar is rising because people need American stuff, not in spite of it. So long as Europe doesn’t have Russian gas, the rest of the world will be competing over a much smaller pool of energy in the form of LNG meaning it’s just much more expensive to do manufacturing. It’s not black and white but I would expect energy burdens to outweigh labor burdens for a good long while.

nebula8804 4y ago
Why not both? This huge workforce called the boomers accelerated their retirement during COVID and those workers don't entirely have a 1-to 1 replacement given that a sizable chunk of their kids majored in things like underwater basket weaving. Gen-Z is much smaller and is really focused on tech jobs, they are not going to make up the numbers. Where are you going to make up the shortfall? (BTW I understand that this is the Peter Zeihan POV).
- oneoff786 4y ago
  The US is not constrained by labor supply in the slightest. The basket weaving comment is inaccurate, irrelevant, and mostly just jaded cynicism. Gen Z is not focused on tech jobs either to any sort of meaningful extent that we can’t build up manufacturing. If the US needs to make up a shortfall, it will simply open up immigration more. Good manufacturing jobs tend to be pretty good.
  - nyokodo 4y ago
    > will simply open up immigration more It’s not so simple when the labor crunch is being felt in vast regions of the globe and many (most?) developing nations are aging faster than the US and are older on average or will be over the next 10 - 20 years.
    - katmannthree 4y ago
      When your per capita GDP is 2-4x higher than surrounding nations you're looking to draw from it absolutely is.
      - nyokodo 4y ago
        If the relatively young population segments we’d need to draw from are in rapid decline, as they are across the western hemisphere then it doesn’t matter how much cash we have if there’s no one left to emigrate here.