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This is not an act in the same level as the Ukraine-Russia war. This is a very top level geopolitical attack. This appears to be in international waters so it w

This is not an act in the same level as the Ukraine-Russia war. This is a very top level geopolitical attack. This appears to be in international waters so it will be interesting when forensic results are published. It can not possibly be in Russia's interest. They could easily nix NS2 at source. And now, even if diplomacy or desperation brings Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, NS2 is out of commission for a long time. Does not compute. US and UK certainly did not want NS2 and Biden did promise to "end it" if Russia invaded Ukraine. And the same day a Polish pipeline opens. But this is exceptionally risky if forensics turns up evidence that points to them. For one, it's an act of war against a fellow NATO member (Germany) and Russia; two, it sets a precedent that an island nation such as UK (with a lot of strategic pipes running in and out of it under Atlantic) can ill afford. So the risk factor seems to argue against that (though motive and who-benefits are clearly there). Germany? It is possible that German deep state is not united. There are Atlantists and those who assert that German and Russian coexistence is optimal. The former faction could have done this to basically close that temptation/option to German government. So that last group is imo the most likely culprit. [Honest question: if CIA acts covertly with say German special services (and not telling the guy in DC, you know, "need to know" and all that /g) and they do this, does that technically mean US committed an act of war or only CIA?] p.s. whoever did this, it is a great advertisement for LNG delivered by ship escorted by blue water navies. This event just showed that gaspipelines are not and can not be strategically reliable energy conduits. They are trivially taken out of commission and repair (even if possible) will require great deal of time and resources to complete.

Paradigma11 4y ago
I think it was the Russians trying to sow discord and distrust within the western allies. Nobody was going to use this pipeline in the near future anyway, so there is no immediate cost for Russia. If there really should be a lifting of the sanctions then there would be enough time to repair the pipeline....done and paid by the germans.
- eternalban 4y ago
  As I mentioned this, or other variants I've seen being posted in twitter, with Russia doing this does not compute. A kilometer wide gas bubble on surface indicates substantial damage. I think it safe to assume that sea water in pipe further damages an additional length of pipeline. German government (or any future one with surprise ala Italy) no longer has the option of giving in to economic and social pressures and making up with Russia before this winter. That option is gone. Russia would be monumentally stupid to lose that option. That was a negotiation card! This is what NS going bye bye means. Someone mentioned elsewhere that this is the response to the referendums that RF just held. This somehow sounds right. Generally don't like to be pessimistic, but this action (whoever did it does not matter, unless some random terror group) indicates that whoever did it has already determined that there will be war. [The real thing not the far away affair on social media] They know this but they are not going to announce it to us until absolutely necessary. There is no way there can be global peace after powers start destroying infrastructure at this level. There will be a contest of strength (we're past the will part) after which pipelines and satellites will once again be safe. p.s. in case it is not clear, I've changed my opinion a bit in this reply. "Risks" may not be relevant because it is understood (and this action was basically a turn in the game with an escalation) that there is going to be, has to be, a showdown. There will be war.
  - Paradigma11 4y ago
    Germany has enough gas for the winter and given the current sentiment I dont think there is any chance before spring/summer of any accommodation with Russia. I guess Russia REALLY needs to break up the (mostly) united western alliance to reduce arms and financial support for Ukraine. Paying for this with some temporary broken pipeline that wouldnt have been used anyway is most likely acceptable for the siloviki.
    - eternalban 4y ago
      It's not clear to me what you are saying. This is what I got from your post: 'Russia destroys its own pipeline so as to cause fracture in the alliance.' Not sure how is that supposed to work! Care to explain? Also, would Russia blowing this constitute an act of war on Germany by Russia? Is that like Putin saying "we don't have enough on our plate. Lets go to war with Germany"? Russia is the -loser- here. Why is this not clear?
MichaelCollins 4y ago
> Germany? It is possible that German deep state is not united. There are Atlantists and those who assert that German and Russian coexistence is optimal. The former faction could have done this to basically close that temptation/option to German government. It eliminates a potential threat to the present Germany government; their rivals promising to turn the gas back on if they're put in power.

Paradigma11 4y ago

I think it was the Russians trying to sow discord and distrust within the western allies. Nobody was going to use this pipeline in the near future anyway, so there is no immediate cost for Russia. If there really should be a lifting of the sanctions then there would be enough time to repair the pipeline....done and paid by the germans.

eternalban 4y ago
As I mentioned this, or other variants I've seen being posted in twitter, with Russia doing this does not compute. A kilometer wide gas bubble on surface indicates substantial damage. I think it safe to assume that sea water in pipe further damages an additional length of pipeline. German government (or any future one with surprise ala Italy) no longer has the option of giving in to economic and social pressures and making up with Russia before this winter. That option is gone. Russia would be monumentally stupid to lose that option. That was a negotiation card! This is what NS going bye bye means. Someone mentioned elsewhere that this is the response to the referendums that RF just held. This somehow sounds right. Generally don't like to be pessimistic, but this action (whoever did it does not matter, unless some random terror group) indicates that whoever did it has already determined that there will be war. [The real thing not the far away affair on social media] They know this but they are not going to announce it to us until absolutely necessary. There is no way there can be global peace after powers start destroying infrastructure at this level. There will be a contest of strength (we're past the will part) after which pipelines and satellites will once again be safe. p.s. in case it is not clear, I've changed my opinion a bit in this reply. "Risks" may not be relevant because it is understood (and this action was basically a turn in the game with an escalation) that there is going to be, has to be, a showdown. There will be war.
- Paradigma11 4y ago
  Germany has enough gas for the winter and given the current sentiment I dont think there is any chance before spring/summer of any accommodation with Russia. I guess Russia REALLY needs to break up the (mostly) united western alliance to reduce arms and financial support for Ukraine. Paying for this with some temporary broken pipeline that wouldnt have been used anyway is most likely acceptable for the siloviki.
  - eternalban 4y ago
    It's not clear to me what you are saying. This is what I got from your post: 'Russia destroys its own pipeline so as to cause fracture in the alliance.' Not sure how is that supposed to work! Care to explain? Also, would Russia blowing this constitute an act of war on Germany by Russia? Is that like Putin saying "we don't have enough on our plate. Lets go to war with Germany"? Russia is the -loser- here. Why is this not clear?

MichaelCollins 4y ago

> Germany? It is possible that German deep state is not united. There are Atlantists and those who assert that German and Russian coexistence is optimal. The former faction could have done this to basically close that temptation/option to German government. It eliminates a potential threat to the present Germany government; their rivals promising to turn the gas back on if they're put in power.