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None of these make much sense. It's pretty idle to speculate, and the list is most likely incomplete and inaccurate. It only feeds the trolls. Then again, this

by tgv 4y ago

None of these make much sense. It's pretty idle to speculate, and the list is most likely incomplete and inaccurate. It only feeds the trolls. Then again, this whole thread is full of fingerpointing without evidence. If HN can't contain itself, what won't the twitter and facebook, and –may God forget– Truth Social do?

pphysch 4y ago
No evidence? What do you think Biden meant when he replied "I promise you, we will be able to do it" [1] when asked about stopping NS2 just before the war this year? Also note the recent pro-NS2 protests in Germany, whose energy costs have skyrocketed before winter. [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-wont-go-forward-if-russia-invades-ukraine-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-won...
- mlztrpg 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
origin_path 4y ago
Note that NS2 has also been destroyed, and that's even more recent than NS1. It was definitely sabotage, it can't be anything else given the timing, and it has to be state sponsored given that the pipelines are under the ocean. Berlin apparently thinks it would require submarines or special forces. US / Ukraine are unfortunately the only states for which this makes sense (perhaps US with back-room permission from some people in the German government): 1. Biden stated flat out he would never allow NS2 to go live. "There will no longer be a NS2, we will end it" and when asked by a reporter "how will you do that exactly" he replied "i promise you we will be able to do it". This makes the USA the prime suspect by far, worryingly and alarmingly. https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 2. Ukraine wants to keep Europe from supporting Russia via gas purchases but if the attack is traced back to them it would immediately kill public support for them, this would be an insanely risky and counter-productive move. 3. Russia has no reason to blow up its own pipelines and every reason not to. They were hoping Europe goes back to buying their gas, maybe even ending sanctions to get it. This ends that possibility for a while. We do really need to cut it out with the absurd "Putin is a 4D chess grandmaster" explanations, they make the west look collectively crazy.
- rad_gruchalski 4y ago
  > given that the pipelines are under the ocean Under the sea. It’s not really deep either, 80 to 110 meters.
- throwaway4good 4y ago
  (Assuming it would not be beneath the US or proxies to do such a thing.) It would not make sense right now. Germany was nowhere reopening Nordstream 2 and if it came to that the US would have other effective means of blocking its use before reaching to outright sabotage.
  - dividedbyzero 4y ago
    That makes right now a great time to do this. Germany is currently very much resolved to keep NS2 closed and no one expects Russia to budge on NS1, so it's not like a viable option is taken off the table, deserting Ukraine over gas is (still?) beyond the pale as far as the mainstream is considered. But the German electorate may change their minds in the coming weeks and months, and Russia might start dangling NS1 carrots too, so blowing them up now is a great way to kill the domestic German political issue while it's still small and not devolved into paralysing trench warfare. I wouldn't be too surprised if the German government had secretly given their go-ahead to whoever is behind this.
    - vintermann 4y ago
      > But the German electorate may change their minds in the coming weeks and months The important thing is that many leaders in NATO and Ukraine fear that the electorate may change their minds. I think they're pretty likely wrong and that Germans aren't that fickle, for good or ill, but I'm probably an insane populist by western leadership's standard.
      - dividedbyzero 4y ago
        > I think they're pretty likely wrong and that Germans aren't that fickle I hear Germans say that as well, but usually those who are pretty comfortable economically. A large part of the population is anything but, is struggling to keep up, failing to keep up or already living hand to mouth. Previous governments have cultivated a huge low-wage sector and made it really hard for large swathes of the population to keep up let alone advance economically, so a lot of people don't have substantial savings or anything else to fall back on. Hence the social contract for those parts of the population kind of goes like this: Your net worth is pretty low and your economic mobility is non-existing, but it's fine since you get stability and security and the government-provided safety net will bail you out if you get sick or whatever. But that safety net, thinned and stretched as it is, isn't helping most people cope with the current surge in energy prices, and there's as yet no clear indication how the government will try to compensate for that, let alone keep afloat an economy built to a large part on the availability of lots of cheap natural gas. If they don't do all of this really well, I guess a large portion of the electorate may prove to be very fickle indeed, and I couldn't really blame them for it. I'm sure most would very much prefer a free Ukraine, and there is a deep desire to be on the "right" side of history, but none of this is enough to lose one's livelihood over. Break the social contract and all bets are off. Screw Ukraine, bring in the cheap autocracy gas, I want my stability back. There is good hope that it won't come to this, but it's a possibility, and the far right is set to profit from any unleashed German angst, as they have during the refugee crisis and (to a lesser degree, due to their own incompetence) the pandemic. If I were Chancellor Scholz or President Biden, I'd be quite worried about that, and yesterday's strike on the pipelines makes perfect sense in that light. Now there is no "easy" cop-out anymore for Germany.
lacker 4y ago
None of these make much sense. It does make sense. The pipelines were already shut down. So the tactical impact of blowing holes in the pipelines is to prevent them from being turned back on. Previously, it was possible that the EU would come to a negotiation with Russia to get gas back. Now, it's not possible, or at least much less possible. That doesn't tell us who exactly blew holes in the pipeline. But it certainly makes sense as a maneuver in the geopolitical game, to take a certain set of options off the table.
- tgv 4y ago
  None referred to the list of accusations. It doesn't make sense for Russia, NATO countries announced it and ruled (just now) it was sabotage (while they could have kept it hidden), and for Ukraine it would be really foolish if it was found out at a bad time, because it can turn public support. So there's no sensible candidate (with the current state of knowledge).
jjslocum3 4y ago
In this tweet from the US State Department's twitter account on 2022-01-22 (a month before the most recent invasion), a US official says: "... I want to be clear with you today. If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, NordStream 2 will not move forward." It's not evidence, but contextually incriminating nonetheless. https://twitter.com/statedept/status/1486818088016355336 https://twitter.com/statedept/status/1486818088016355336
- marshray 4y ago
  Yes, and, in fact, Nord Stream 2 did not move forward. The German government simply didn't grant approval to begin operation. No underwater bombings necessary.
- mgfist 4y ago
  A kind of operation like this would be known by very very few. Same with all conspiracy theories, people like to point to vague statements made by officials who would have absolutely zero idea about this kind of operation.
vintermann 4y ago
I think it's good to try to think clearly about these things, lay out the reasonable possibilities. It's the healthiest coping strategy in a frankly worrying situation. Better to risk saying something stupid, and potentially get corrected, than to just go with the default flow of however media decides to spin this.
seydor 4y ago
OK so instead of speculating , what are people to do? Stare with open mouths to what end?
- tgv 4y ago
  Yes, please. There are already flagged remarks here. I'm sure twitter is a cesspool blaming everyone from the Jews to the Dutch. That behavior has already created large problems in society. Let's not aggrevate them.

by tgv 4y ago

pphysch 4y ago

No evidence? What do you think Biden meant when he replied "I promise you, we will be able to do it" [1] when asked about stopping NS2 just before the war this year? Also note the recent pro-NS2 protests in Germany, whose energy costs have skyrocketed before winter. [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-wont-go-forward-if-russia-invades-ukraine-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-won...

mlztrpg 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

origin_path 4y ago

Note that NS2 has also been destroyed, and that's even more recent than NS1. It was definitely sabotage, it can't be anything else given the timing, and it has to be state sponsored given that the pipelines are under the ocean. Berlin apparently thinks it would require submarines or special forces. US / Ukraine are unfortunately the only states for which this makes sense (perhaps US with back-room permission from some people in the German government): 1. Biden stated flat out he would never allow NS2 to go live. "There will no longer be a NS2, we will end it" and when asked by a reporter "how will you do that exactly" he replied "i promise you we will be able to do it". This makes the USA the prime suspect by far, worryingly and alarmingly. https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 2. Ukraine wants to keep Europe from supporting Russia via gas purchases but if the attack is traced back to them it would immediately kill public support for them, this would be an insanely risky and counter-productive move. 3. Russia has no reason to blow up its own pipelines and every reason not to. They were hoping Europe goes back to buying their gas, maybe even ending sanctions to get it. This ends that possibility for a while. We do really need to cut it out with the absurd "Putin is a 4D chess grandmaster" explanations, they make the west look collectively crazy.

rad_gruchalski 4y ago
> given that the pipelines are under the ocean Under the sea. It’s not really deep either, 80 to 110 meters.
throwaway4good 4y ago
(Assuming it would not be beneath the US or proxies to do such a thing.) It would not make sense right now. Germany was nowhere reopening Nordstream 2 and if it came to that the US would have other effective means of blocking its use before reaching to outright sabotage.
- dividedbyzero 4y ago
  That makes right now a great time to do this. Germany is currently very much resolved to keep NS2 closed and no one expects Russia to budge on NS1, so it's not like a viable option is taken off the table, deserting Ukraine over gas is (still?) beyond the pale as far as the mainstream is considered. But the German electorate may change their minds in the coming weeks and months, and Russia might start dangling NS1 carrots too, so blowing them up now is a great way to kill the domestic German political issue while it's still small and not devolved into paralysing trench warfare. I wouldn't be too surprised if the German government had secretly given their go-ahead to whoever is behind this.
  - vintermann 4y ago
    > But the German electorate may change their minds in the coming weeks and months The important thing is that many leaders in NATO and Ukraine fear that the electorate may change their minds. I think they're pretty likely wrong and that Germans aren't that fickle, for good or ill, but I'm probably an insane populist by western leadership's standard.
    - dividedbyzero 4y ago
      > I think they're pretty likely wrong and that Germans aren't that fickle I hear Germans say that as well, but usually those who are pretty comfortable economically. A large part of the population is anything but, is struggling to keep up, failing to keep up or already living hand to mouth. Previous governments have cultivated a huge low-wage sector and made it really hard for large swathes of the population to keep up let alone advance economically, so a lot of people don't have substantial savings or anything else to fall back on. Hence the social contract for those parts of the population kind of goes like this: Your net worth is pretty low and your economic mobility is non-existing, but it's fine since you get stability and security and the government-provided safety net will bail you out if you get sick or whatever. But that safety net, thinned and stretched as it is, isn't helping most people cope with the current surge in energy prices, and there's as yet no clear indication how the government will try to compensate for that, let alone keep afloat an economy built to a large part on the availability of lots of cheap natural gas. If they don't do all of this really well, I guess a large portion of the electorate may prove to be very fickle indeed, and I couldn't really blame them for it. I'm sure most would very much prefer a free Ukraine, and there is a deep desire to be on the "right" side of history, but none of this is enough to lose one's livelihood over. Break the social contract and all bets are off. Screw Ukraine, bring in the cheap autocracy gas, I want my stability back. There is good hope that it won't come to this, but it's a possibility, and the far right is set to profit from any unleashed German angst, as they have during the refugee crisis and (to a lesser degree, due to their own incompetence) the pandemic. If I were Chancellor Scholz or President Biden, I'd be quite worried about that, and yesterday's strike on the pipelines makes perfect sense in that light. Now there is no "easy" cop-out anymore for Germany.

lacker 4y ago

None of these make much sense. It does make sense. The pipelines were already shut down. So the tactical impact of blowing holes in the pipelines is to prevent them from being turned back on. Previously, it was possible that the EU would come to a negotiation with Russia to get gas back. Now, it's not possible, or at least much less possible. That doesn't tell us who exactly blew holes in the pipeline. But it certainly makes sense as a maneuver in the geopolitical game, to take a certain set of options off the table.

tgv 4y ago
None referred to the list of accusations. It doesn't make sense for Russia, NATO countries announced it and ruled (just now) it was sabotage (while they could have kept it hidden), and for Ukraine it would be really foolish if it was found out at a bad time, because it can turn public support. So there's no sensible candidate (with the current state of knowledge).

jjslocum3 4y ago

In this tweet from the US State Department's twitter account on 2022-01-22 (a month before the most recent invasion), a US official says: "... I want to be clear with you today. If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, NordStream 2 will not move forward." It's not evidence, but contextually incriminating nonetheless. https://twitter.com/statedept/status/1486818088016355336 https://twitter.com/statedept/status/1486818088016355336

marshray 4y ago
Yes, and, in fact, Nord Stream 2 did not move forward. The German government simply didn't grant approval to begin operation. No underwater bombings necessary.
mgfist 4y ago
A kind of operation like this would be known by very very few. Same with all conspiracy theories, people like to point to vague statements made by officials who would have absolutely zero idea about this kind of operation.

vintermann 4y ago

I think it's good to try to think clearly about these things, lay out the reasonable possibilities. It's the healthiest coping strategy in a frankly worrying situation. Better to risk saying something stupid, and potentially get corrected, than to just go with the default flow of however media decides to spin this.

seydor 4y ago

OK so instead of speculating , what are people to do? Stare with open mouths to what end?

tgv 4y ago
Yes, please. There are already flagged remarks here. I'm sure twitter is a cesspool blaming everyone from the Jews to the Dutch. That behavior has already created large problems in society. Let's not aggrevate them.