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I don't think this was some kind of psy op to drive a wedge between NATO countries as there aren't any benefits from that in the current situation. The only si

I don't think this was some kind of psy op to drive a wedge between NATO countries as there aren't any benefits from that in the current situation. The only situation my tin foil hat could imagine this being useful is in the event of much stronger tension (like the constant threat of using nukes). This would need a coordinated reaction in which distrust could be fatal. For supplying weapons or sanctions that distrust is not doing much as politically Germany and its allies are more or less on the same page. However, the blown pipes limit the movement of the German government. It is more stable towards protests if a cold winter occurs as there is no option left to appease Russia as the restrictions in the gas sector aren't a product of a revertible decision anymore. Being cold can't be ignored, which a war in Ukraine can be. In addition, any half-baked compromise Russia could offer accompanied by influencing Germany's opinion with gas isn't an option anymore. In the end, this could even benefit Germany which lacks clear and brave decisions of its leaders. Not deciding if you want to evade the wall you are driving onto right or left eventually leads to crashing into it

2-718-281-828 4y ago
how does Russia benefit of destroying those pipelines, though?
- funnym0nk3y 4y ago
  It doesn't. Russia's benefit lies in insecurity and control over Europe's energy supply. This operation however reduces their control and influence. In the short term insecurity rises, but this is a one time thing and lasts until solutions are found, which definitely will be found. Gas prices might be higher, but Russia doesn't profit from them, as they can't send gas to Europe anymore and the prices for China aren't influenced. It benefits however US interests: Germany becomes a more stable partner, no matter how this thing turns out. Currently Russia is blamed, so the German reaction is more severe. In addition, LNG prices are higher, but I don't think that was the main reason for that operation in the first place. Blaming the US, even if their responsibility is certain, in a time of crisis won't happen as a united front against Russia is still needed. The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that Poland's interests didn't lead to such a operation. They have even more problems with high gas prices than Germany because they don't have long term contracts with Norway.

2-718-281-828 4y ago

how does Russia benefit of destroying those pipelines, though?

funnym0nk3y 4y ago
It doesn't. Russia's benefit lies in insecurity and control over Europe's energy supply. This operation however reduces their control and influence. In the short term insecurity rises, but this is a one time thing and lasts until solutions are found, which definitely will be found. Gas prices might be higher, but Russia doesn't profit from them, as they can't send gas to Europe anymore and the prices for China aren't influenced. It benefits however US interests: Germany becomes a more stable partner, no matter how this thing turns out. Currently Russia is blamed, so the German reaction is more severe. In addition, LNG prices are higher, but I don't think that was the main reason for that operation in the first place. Blaming the US, even if their responsibility is certain, in a time of crisis won't happen as a united front against Russia is still needed. The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that Poland's interests didn't lead to such a operation. They have even more problems with high gas prices than Germany because they don't have long term contracts with Norway.