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Russia doesn't really stand to gain here. Ukraine and the United States stand to gain the most by removing the option for Europe to capitulate to Russia this wi

Russia doesn't really stand to gain here. Ukraine and the United States stand to gain the most by removing the option for Europe to capitulate to Russia this winter. Ukraine isn't on the Baltic Sea, but do they need to be? Honestly, I don't know the resources that would be required to accomplish this. Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough?

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough? Sections are shallow. (No clue about the blast sites.) With zero information on the extent of the damage beyond measured pressure drops, folks dropping weighted dry bags of dynamite from kayaks is in scope.
- lastofthemojito 4y ago
  A supposed expert on Twitter claims it is divable: https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750260743880710 https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750260743880710
  - alecco 4y ago
    This should have its own submission or be at the top of the thread.
krzyk 4y ago
The biggest gain is for Russia, remember the long "repair" of NS1? Blocking the filling of gas reserves in Western Europe? Repair here, sabotage there and bam Germany has less gas for winter.
- ajsnigrutin 4y ago
  Russia can just close the valve. Germany has an option to talk with russia to make a deal, so russia reopens the valve... some other forces don't want that.
  - krzyk 4y ago
    Russia can close valve pretending they didn't close it but at the same time sending a warning. It is a 101 of economical warfare.
    - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
      What warning? They literally said they'll close the valve. With the closed valve, they have an upper hand at negotiations about gas, especially if the german people get cold and start sharpening the pitchforks for their own (german) politicians... now, even if the germans want to negotiate, there will be no gas until the pipelines are fixed, and it doesn't seem that will happen soon
      - krzyk 4y ago
        It is Russia, they have their ways. Nobody believes in their 'repairs' and temporary issues with the pipeline. I really hope it is destroyed. If they wanted they could reuse the old pipeline that is on land on Polish territory. BTW. It is not only my suspicion: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/28/nord-stream-pipeline-explosions-eu-00059262 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/28/nord-stream-pipelin...
cronix 4y ago
We have lots of automated machinery/robots/underwater drones that could do it remotely.
elihu 4y ago
> Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough? Might not even need divers. Just a fishing boat, a GPS, a limpet mine, and a few hundred feet of rope. Dangle the mine in the water at the right depth as you cross the path of the pipeline and let go when it attaches. Set the timer for weeks or months so you're long gone by the time anyone starts investigating. (If the pipelines are made of a non-magnetic material like stainless steel maybe you'd need to do something more sophisticated.) Maybe we'll know more once investigators inspect the damage, but I think practically anyone could have done this based on what we know so far.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough? Sections are shallow. (No clue about the blast sites.) With zero information on the extent of the damage beyond measured pressure drops, folks dropping weighted dry bags of dynamite from kayaks is in scope.

lastofthemojito 4y ago
A supposed expert on Twitter claims it is divable: https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750260743880710 https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750260743880710
- alecco 4y ago
  This should have its own submission or be at the top of the thread.

krzyk 4y ago

The biggest gain is for Russia, remember the long "repair" of NS1? Blocking the filling of gas reserves in Western Europe? Repair here, sabotage there and bam Germany has less gas for winter.

ajsnigrutin 4y ago
Russia can just close the valve. Germany has an option to talk with russia to make a deal, so russia reopens the valve... some other forces don't want that.
- krzyk 4y ago
  Russia can close valve pretending they didn't close it but at the same time sending a warning. It is a 101 of economical warfare.
  - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
    What warning? They literally said they'll close the valve. With the closed valve, they have an upper hand at negotiations about gas, especially if the german people get cold and start sharpening the pitchforks for their own (german) politicians... now, even if the germans want to negotiate, there will be no gas until the pipelines are fixed, and it doesn't seem that will happen soon
    - krzyk 4y ago
      It is Russia, they have their ways. Nobody believes in their 'repairs' and temporary issues with the pipeline. I really hope it is destroyed. If they wanted they could reuse the old pipeline that is on land on Polish territory. BTW. It is not only my suspicion: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/28/nord-stream-pipeline-explosions-eu-00059262 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/28/nord-stream-pipelin...

cronix 4y ago

We have lots of automated machinery/robots/underwater drones that could do it remotely.

elihu 4y ago

> Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough? Might not even need divers. Just a fishing boat, a GPS, a limpet mine, and a few hundred feet of rope. Dangle the mine in the water at the right depth as you cross the path of the pipeline and let go when it attaches. Set the timer for weeks or months so you're long gone by the time anyone starts investigating. (If the pipelines are made of a non-magnetic material like stainless steel maybe you'd need to do something more sophisticated.) Maybe we'll know more once investigators inspect the damage, but I think practically anyone could have done this based on what we know so far.